Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

Is CITI insolvent?

Mutterings are increasing, that Citi is insolvent. Should one still hold their hard earned funds in Citi, or withdraw? This crisis has shown that any firm, with any magnitude could fail. If Citi fails, I am sure that the government would HAVE to bail it out; otherwise, there will be a social unrest.

EUR/USD Outlook:

As I mentioned several times now, DOW needs to fail below 7500 mark for EUR/USD to move below 1.20. I believe the market is pushing government for another euphoria of bailouts are coming in next days/weeks. Is it the solution? NO

Lets go back to our topic.

EUR/USD is showing descending triangle, continuation pattern, and a DOW is approaching 7500 mark, its critical times for the EUR/USD, and all other USD pairs:

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/nov20_shrt.jpg

As its seen above, 1.30-1.23 has been the consolidation area since 4-6 weeks. The descending triangle is very clear in longer view:

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/nov20_mid.jpg

If Eur/Usd falls below 1.20, the pair will see 1.15, then 1.00 respectively. This scenario will unfold if DOW fails below 7500.

Watch it

Dow at 7500

US saves Ford and GM, however, DOW continues its decline...

Below 7500...

Eur/Usd will target below 1.00

Shortened week begins

Holiday shortened week begins, as US is rushing to bailout Citi.

Let's see how long can US continue to carry the ever increasing debt and bailout burden.

7500 Held at DOW & NEW US Gov prop up of 800 BILLION

Dow held at 7500, and EUR/USD sharply bounced higher to 1.30+ in two days.

Today is the last day in US, before going away for an extended weekend. Recently, the past few years showed extended gains for EUR/USD during thansgiving period. Doesn't mean it would happen again, but the guards from US is down for two days...

Latest Hot Cakes from Washington!
800 Billion $$$

Get your stake NOW!

Update:

EUR/USD

Stuck between 1.30 - 1.23, the pair bounced of the channel highs, and began selloff last thursday. The aim is 1.23 - 1.24. This point will again coincide with down around 7500 points, as i have been trying to point out for the last 8-10 weeks now.

Dow below 7500 points will allow EUR/USD to drop to 1.20 range. Dow below 7000 point is a whole different story; where there will be a panic selloff, probably pounding DOW to 4500 - 5000 points in 2009, and EUR/USD below 1.00, nearly after 7-8 years.


The channel of EUR/USD is clearly seen below:

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture4.jpg

How to evaluate the 1.23 - 1.30 channel in Eur/Usd:

This move down to the 1.23 region will be the third full forced test of the lows, and depending on the once-again-expected government intervention, the shorts could be closed and reversed to longs, to carry the pair back to 1.28-1.30 again.

HOWEVER

for this case to unfold, again, DOW has to stay above 7500 points. More deep fishers could allow for swings upto 7000 points. BUT, failure of 7000 is definitely meaning lows toward 1.00 for the pair.

The sell-offs in the market has to stop for the Eur/Usd to go higher than 1.30-1.35 as of now.

Gbp/Jpy

We're at the bottom of the channel for most JPY crosses, and unless the markets resume their fall, there is a chance for a bounce again.

It looks possible to go long from 138 - 139 region, targeting the channel highs around 148 - 150. Risk/reward is high from this point.

Caution!: Do NOT leave trades without any stop loss/stop reverse set. We're at the bottom of the channel, and further weakness, along with the equity market weakness, will cause massive losses for almost all JPY crosses.

Long from 138 - 139, stop/reverse around 136-137 - target 147+

NZD/JPY

This cross is also at the extreme bottom of its channel, testing it 3rd time. It has a huge potential to mark massive fall if the channel breaks.

Until it does, RR is high to go long from here:

Long 49-50, Stop/Reverse below 48, target 52 - 53

Last update:

If the JPY pairs break below their lows, eye high interest paying pairs currencies, such as ZAR (South African Rand), TRY (Turkish Lira)...

They have formed base, and will get slammed, massive

Update on Eur/Usd

The channel is narrowing for Eur/Usd, and situation is very similar for most majors, and JPY crosses. Break outs are very close, and chances for bounce is getting slimmer everyday.

1.23 is very important for Eur/Usd

The importance of 1.23 is clearly visible in the long term chart. If 1.23 fails, which should coincide with Dow moving below 7500, Eur/Usd will go down to 1.16-1.18 in a matter of weeks.

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/eurusd_long.jpg

Great analysis. What is your analysis on the GBP/USD?

JPY crosses update

JPY crosses are beginning to break lower one by by. Massive downside ahead for GBP/JPY

Update on Eur/Usd & Gbp/Usd

Eur/Usd has moved to the top of the channel in the last few days, which is around 1.3050-1.31. These areas could be relatively low risk to short. It is yet to be seen if the channel breaks to the upside.

Similar situation is seen in Gbp/Usd. Will update with chart later on.

Break alert in most JPY crosses:

Take a look in USD/JPY:

http://www.hostdump.com/host/out.php...encapture8.jpg

I vote for breaking lower...

GBP/JPY break alert

Situation is similar in GBP/JPY, below 134 could see a push towards 132 and lower:

GBP/JPY update:

The pair is holding above 134, and even though a bit shaky, moving higher. Break below 134 will push it again towards lows of 132, and potentially lower. Currently in the bullish move:

UoM Consumer Confidence take-away:

Consumer confidence might be showing signs of bottoming, and supporting views that the worst markets had seen in October is over. Consumers, being one of the most important legs of the economy, are showing signs of reversal.

The reversal of Consumer Confidence might also be signaling the bottom in Eur/Usd, and the end of US $ strength we had seen since summer. In order to confirm this view, 70-75 are for the consumer confidence is important to watch for in the coming next few months.

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/images/uomconf.jpg

Update:

Gbp/Jpy stayed above 134, hence moving higher towards 137. Eur/Usd moved above the trading range, closing above 1.33. With next weeks FED announcement, we will see if 1.23-1.31 is indeed the bottom for the Eur/Usd pair.

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