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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #101
  • Dec 2, 2008 5:12am Dec 2, 2008 5:12am
I've tried different systems over the past two years and would just like to add my two cents to this post which portrays a misserable picture of forex. Firstly - nearly all systems have their merit. They will always work under the market conditions in which they were designed. Secondly - users have the uncany ability to misuse systems and indicators. For example a system based on moving averages is great in a trending market. The problem is that people (traders like me when i first started) try to use them when we are in a ranging market (disaster). Another recipe for disaster is people trying to use oscillators in trending markets. basically what i am trying to say is that only a bad workman blames his tools.

Forex can be great as long as you know when to change tools.
  • #102
  • Dec 2, 2008 8:37am Dec 2, 2008 8:37am
Quoting parisienne
I disagree. I disagree that there is no system, but not completely.

No system can be effective for ever, but combination of systems that fill out the gaps in each other, are the only way of a successful trading.

Yes, I know, many of you will not believe me and I also have no need to convince you - because I know what I am talking about.

I can proudly state that in the year 2008 I have not lost a single trade. This was not the case when I started out. I blew out two 10k accounts in one year and now I have difficulty in spending my money.

The...
Now that's good advice. Everything you need to know neatly summarised in a single post. Brava!
  • #103
  • Dec 2, 2008 8:56am Dec 2, 2008 8:56am
Quoting mt41969
I would disagree with your final statement. I have been making a life out of it for over 2 years since leaving barclays bank.

I agree you wont win every single trade. But i basket trade, whereby i make 8 BUYS or 8 SELLS in one go. The object is to have the total basket profit > 0.

...And that is possible.
Of course it’s possible!!! That’s what I said…The only difference is that for me it hasn’t been enough to make a life out of it. This year I have been success and I’m happy with that. Also I have learned a lot more than I was expecting. But I can only see my experience in Forex as another option to make some extra money.
  • #104
  • Dec 2, 2008 9:03am Dec 2, 2008 9:03am
Quoting parisienne
There are different ways to define a "statistically winner" strategy. What I meant was that if I define my take profit and stop loss values as same (e.g. tp 30, sl 30) then the win loss ratio is higher than 0.5. This is what I searched for.

To clear away any misunderstanding: My strategy is definitively not a 100% winner, i.e. win loss ratio is not 1. I just had no loss trading this year. I have had losses last year with this strategy but I still did very well. And no, I did not have just 5 trades so far. Usually there are 2-3 trades daily....
That’s completely crazy!!!
That’s another different market you are trading!!!
I would like to have the ability to life in that kind of world. My life would be really easy…hahahaha
  • #105
  • Dec 2, 2008 9:19am Dec 2, 2008 9:19am
Quoting Lythro
I've tried different systems over the past two years and would just like to add my two cents to this post which portrays a misserable picture of forex. Firstly - nearly all systems have their merit. They will always work under the market conditions in which they were designed. Secondly - users have the uncany ability to misuse systems and indicators. For example a system based on moving averages is great in a trending market. The problem is that people (traders like me when i first started) try to use them when we are in a ranging market (disaster)....
I agree with that!!!
You must know where, when, and how your indicators and strategy works.
If you are not able to answer those question you will use your system when you don’t have to.
  • #106
  • Dec 2, 2008 9:29am Dec 2, 2008 9:29am
To Parisienne,

would you like to share which system worked the best for you? BTW es-tu francais(e)?

Merci!
  • #107
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:00pm Dec 2, 2008 2:00pm
Quoting Papillon9
To Parisienne,

would you like to share which system worked the best for you? BTW es-tu francais(e)?

Merci!

I bet he's just showing off!!!

Don't expect to have a no-loss system for 2008 - that's a fallacy!!!
  • #108
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:46pm Dec 2, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting parisienne
That, what everybody already knows but only few could integrate in their trading:

1. Sticking to a system that is statistically a winner
2. Controlling the emotions
3. Not listening to the "naysayers" and "know it all"
4. Not listening to the "gurus" and "experts" who analyzes the market. I call it "Anna lies", otherwise it would be "Anna says the truth"
5. And the most important one: to never give up, to never quit the battle.

I knew very well that people would ridicule me and I'm not embarrassed about it. Even I am...
very good
I see what you mean
  • #109
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:02pm Dec 2, 2008 4:02pm
Quoting Lythro

Forex can be great as long as you know when to change tools.
Don't you think that's what everyone is looking for? Simple in hindsight. Figuring it out in the act of is another story.
"Your big opportunity may be right where you are now." Napoleon Hill
  • #110
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:56pm Dec 2, 2008 4:56pm
Do one trade per week, below 3% of your account.
You only must find the major Resistance or Support for that week, wide your SL to 300 pips and go for 150 pips+150 pips.
NO CASINO can resist to this.
  • #111
  • Dec 2, 2008 5:27pm Dec 2, 2008 5:27pm
Quoting TheHefner
Don't you think that's what everyone is looking for? Simple in hindsight. Figuring it out in the act of is another story.

Actually if you read the posts on this forum (judging by your profile you certainly do) then you should have realised by now that most of the people on here want a blueprint to follow. Very few are concerned with adapting methods to market. I'm pretty sure many people would like more information on the market conditions and assumptions of any given system but overal this is not discussed in the systems i have seen on this forum.

As for people knowing what type of market they are in ofcourse they know. People are not dumb and they can tell what type of market they are in. Unfortunately people keep using unsuitable tools long after a market has changed simply because they never knew that the particular system is of less value when market changes. This is what i was subtly explaining in my earlier post.
  • #112
  • Dec 2, 2008 6:45pm Dec 2, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting Lythro
Actually if you read the posts on this forum (judging by your profile you certainly do) then you should have realised by now that most of the people on here want a blueprint to follow. Very few.....
Lythro...I am sorry that the response was interpreted wrong. Was making more of my own statement than questioning your own.

To detail it more, I was just stating that you will have many tell you to only trade such and such way when the market is trending. Then tell you to trade such and such way when the market is ranging. When in reality, you do not know the fact until after it has happened. You could think "start of trend" via breakout, HH,HL, etcc.. only to see it start ranging again. Same with thinking of the "start of ranging". That was my point and maybe should have kept from saying something.

Adam
"Your big opportunity may be right where you are now." Napoleon Hill
  • #113
  • Dec 2, 2008 7:18pm Dec 2, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting Lythro
most of the people on here want a blueprint to follow.
Even when given a blueprint most people will screw that up too........
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #114
  • Dec 2, 2008 8:33pm Dec 2, 2008 8:33pm
hey there baby john...would you like to tell me why do you think that people is going to screw it up by following a good blueprint??? i guess traders like you should help others to avoid wrong moves though...
  • #115
  • Dec 2, 2008 9:44pm Dec 2, 2008 9:44pm
My dear kitty..... it is human nature, they think they can improve it... or after a few losses in a row they try to get revenge, the list goes on and on as to why people screw up a perfectly good blue print....
If in doubt look up the turtles, out of the dozen of them there were only 3 or 4 that actually succeeded.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #116
  • Dec 3, 2008 12:12am Dec 3, 2008 12:12am
Quoting Vlad
I didnt insult anyone. What I said is that there is no "system" or a strategy or a "wit", "intuition "...
Vlad,

you're entitled to your opinion there's nothing to be sorry. As long as you and everyone else in here keeps it civil there's nothing to be sorry so don't apologize just because some people disagree with what you say bro.
  • #117
  • Dec 3, 2008 10:52am Dec 3, 2008 10:52am
I donīt even know why this trade has to even exist, realize that there is a lot of people (newbies) like me who probably the only thing that keeps us alive in this market is the hope that someday we will learn how to trade forex properly, and get our money back, many of us has lose a lot but we learn and learn and someday we will win, i donīt know why someone can come in here and try to take that hope away, FF is supposed to be a helping each other forum, not some sort of psichologistīs office where you go and complain about your poor experience, if you donīt like it go complain somewhere else, stop trading, and leave our HOPE in peace, so we can still try to be succesful in something we like.

Regards and God Bless.
  • #118
  • Dec 3, 2008 1:58pm Dec 3, 2008 1:58pm
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.


I don't normally go into forums and have not posted in a trading forum in years. I was recently sent an e-mail from a trader friend about this thread and all of the opinions responding to the OP. I am going to make this my first and last post for this forum. I feel the need to respond for those trying to conquer the markets. I would like nothing more for all traders to succeed, but I know that this will never happen.

The markets (any market) are/is very easy to trade. They are not chaotic as some would have you believe. They are very predictable. I can tell anyone where the tops/bottoms are from the smallest tick to the yearly chart and all charts in between. I not only can I pick tops, but I can also predict with a very high degree of accuracy where in time and price they will end.

I would also like to comment on what most mainstream trading talking heads seem to parrot to keep the traders from succeeding. I have seen these type of comments from most authors and people in high position of authority in the trading community.



The following comment is typical:


"Unfortunately, we may think we know which trade is going to be the blockbuster, but the fact is, no matter what we may think, we never can know which trade is going to be the good one and which trade is going to go south until the trade is over. We can help deal with that issue by using a money management plan."


I do know when and where the markets are going to be a "blockbuster" as the previous writer would say.


That comment couldn't be further from the truth. I prefer to feel like I am in control of the markets, not the other way around. I believe these types of comments are repeated either because the writers don't actually know for themselves how the markets work or they are deceiving the reader. Either/Or they are deceiving the readers and causing harm to the trader from pursuing the perfect understanding of the markets.


Most self proclaimed professionals in the trading arena that state these types of comments are only limited to their training and the world they live in. They use the term Money Management to cover their mistakes of NOT KNOWING. I sit and laugh when I hear them. If one knows where, why,and when, why would someone need Money Management? Think about it.




Having 20,000 hours of screen time I can guarantee that Announcements, Fundimental Analysis, Layoffs, or whatever excuse the media and high profile traders say, it doesn't make a difference in market movements.


It is absolutely possible to know?




Seek wisdom, seek understanding. With all thy getting, get understanding.



Take care and Happy Trading.
  • #119
  • Edited 3:36pm Dec 3, 2008 2:09pm | Edited 3:36pm
And why aren't you on Forbes yet?
  • #120
  • Dec 3, 2008 2:32pm Dec 3, 2008 2:32pm
....oh man, I love this thread!!!
forexflash
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