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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #144,781
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:52pm Dec 1, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting karmostaji
you were quick fixing that error, Haha
GU is retracing because GU retraces. i see no error
  • #144,782
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:53pm Dec 1, 2008 12:53pm
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #144,783
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:53pm Dec 1, 2008 12:53pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi Friends,
How are you all? I need a help if possible. I am negative big time on USD/JPY about 200 pips(I went long)......USD/JPY has hit 93.07.........could anybody comment........is there a possibility of 200 or more pips down in USD/JPY pair do you guys think USD/JPY will breach 90.96?...........your comments and advice will be highly appreciated and it could help me immensely.
Thank you all

99% of time uj will reverse its direction in Asia ... up to you ... but they may push ti back up ... maybe not 200 though
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144,784
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:54pm Dec 1, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting pkimnyc
agreed.
here's some food for thought.

i need tomorrow's daily candle to confirm the close below the daily CCI TL. otherwise it might reverse upwards at any given time.

here's a text book reversal pattern: a simple broadening top. we need to close below that lower TL to see malcomb's target, otherwise we might even see the upper TL or even above that.

the only reason i still think we might have another rally is that the daily bullish div didn't play as large as it should have... the div started forming from a 6000 pip drop... and 1k pips up isn't just sufficient to call it a retracement or even a correction.... but this is price, and price does what it wants.

4h chart: looks pretty clear on the daily too.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj_broadening_top.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #144,785
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:56pm Dec 1, 2008 12:56pm
hi Piters,
how are you? Thank you very much for the chart and the insight. I can't forgive myself for going long on this cross early. Thank you very much.


Quoting Piters
Bro I cannot tell you what to DO.. but have a look this.. it is a major LEVEL, broke. now retesting the TL. I am seeing that UY is going DOWN (maybe I am wrong)

GY is retracing because of GU retrace..

http://www.doske.com/fx/snapshot-291.png
BANDA333
  • #144,786
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:58pm Dec 1, 2008 12:58pm
Quoting lilmoe
i don't KNOW if this is the bottom....

when a strong bullish HD is still intact on the 4h chart. the last line of support is the previous low. and we were 40 pips close to that. we MIGHT see that low again though before heading back up.

if this goes up it's not a reversal unless i see a good bounce from the daily CCI TL.... if we close above that we are ONLY selling rallies... careful with longs at this stage. selling rallies is safer.
Maybe you're right. We haven't seen the 15 min Gann cross up yet .. at least we should wait till this happens before considering a retracement, right Moe?
  • #144,787
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:58pm Dec 1, 2008 12:58pm
Hi malcolmb14,
Thank you very much for the input. Thank you.



Quoting malcolmb14
99% of time uj will reverse its direction in Asia ... up to you ... but they may push ti back up ... maybe not 200 though
BANDA333
  • #144,788
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:59pm Dec 1, 2008 12:59pm
Quoting lilmoe
here's some food for thought.

i need tomorrow's daily candle to confirm the close below the daily CCI TL. otherwise it might reverse upwards at any given time.

here's a text book reversal pattern: a simple broadening top. we need to close below that lower TL to see malcomb's target, otherwise we might even see the upper TL or even above that.

the only reason i still think we might have another rally is that the daily bullish div didn't play as large as it should have... the div started forming from a 6000 pip drop... and 1k...
  • #144,789
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:01pm Dec 1, 2008 1:01pm
Quoting BANDA
Hi malcolmb14,
Thank you very much for the input. Thank you.
Bro, If you are still in trade, see how this Wave of Buying/Selling in 2PM (after the lunch) is going.. if the price break that FE 1.618, then you can EXIT.. otherwise... keep it.. we may retrace on UY as well.

But it is UP to You ...
  • #144,790
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:02pm Dec 1, 2008 1:02pm
139 is acting as resistance
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #144,791
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:03pm Dec 1, 2008 1:03pm
Quoting mktjong
Maybe you're right. We haven't seen the 15 min Gann cross up yet .. at least we should wait till this happens before considering a retracement, right Moe?
yep... not yet... and now i'm starting to think we need a close above m30 gann, looool...

we might stall here or retest 137.70 first.
  • #144,792
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:07pm Dec 1, 2008 1:07pm
Quoting lilmoe
yep... not yet... and now i'm starting to think we need a close above m30 gann, looool...

we might stall here or retest 137.70 first.

I thought that 139 . /137.7 would be it on a retest of these lows and the fact that last week we did not push to 150 and higher showed me that the pros may be accumulating at these levels longer term

At the moment I took my short swing trade off at 139 and will flip back to day trading mode till i get a clearer picture.

for now I have 138.60 long , with tight stop as the ym seems unwilling to break 8353 and we may get a 300 point bounce going in the next 2 hrs
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144,793
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:08pm Dec 1, 2008 1:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I thought that 139 . /137.7 would be it on a retest of these lows and the fact that last week we did not push to 150 and higher showed me that the pros may be accumulating at these levels longer term

At the moment I took my short swing trade off at 139 and will flip back to day trading mode till i get a clearer picture.
can you define "pros", please?
  • #144,794
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:09pm Dec 1, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I thought that 139 . /137.7 would be it on a retest of these lows and the fact that last week we did not push to 150 and higher showed me that the pros may be accumulating at these levels longer term

At the moment I took my short swing trade off at 139 and will flip back to day trading mode till i get a clearer picture.
We also have a HD bullish div now on the hourly Dow ..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ym-120108.gif Size: 15 KB
  • #144,795
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:11pm Dec 1, 2008 1:11pm
Quoting pepsi
can you define "pros", please?
It is Malcolmb ..
  • #144,796
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:11pm Dec 1, 2008 1:11pm
im starting to get a feeling that this move gu can play out like on 21st-22nd of october when the price dropped 400 pips after consolidation and then retraced to 23% during asia and then just collapsed. could be wrong of course but at the moment there just doesn't seem to be many ( or any )buyers out there.
  • #144,797
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm
Quoting pepsi
can you define "pros", please?
pros .. karmo and lilmoe .. lol

professionals .. hedge funds , banks etc etc ... big money players that manipulate the markets
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144,798
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm
Quoting mktjong
We also have a HD bullish div now on the hourly Dow ..
Thank you, but that will play out when YM closes at this or higher level
  • #144,799
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm
Quoting lilmoe
here's some food for thought.

i need tomorrow's daily candle to confirm the close below the daily CCI TL. otherwise it might reverse upwards at any given time.

here's a text book reversal pattern: a simple broadening top. we need to close below that lower TL to see malcomb's target, otherwise we might even see the upper TL or even above that.

the only reason i still think we might have another rally is that the daily bullish div didn't play as large as it should have... the div started forming from a 6000 pip drop... and 1k pips up isn't...
similar as my thought. didn't see the broadening triangle though. thanks.
this is what i was hoping to play out. it overshot down further than i had originally anticipated, but as long as the previous low holds, there still is a possibility. it's a bit messy. this darn pattern was little trickier than i thought.
a lot of fixing was made to this chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gy_h1_12_01_08_03.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #144,800
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm Dec 1, 2008 1:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I thought that 139 . /137.7 would be it on a retest of these lows and the fact that last week we did not push to 150 and higher showed me that the pros may be accumulating at these levels longer term

At the moment I took my short swing trade off at 139 and will flip back to day trading mode till i get a clearer picture.
i'd still not be very comfortable selling this level. we SHOULD have that bullish HD relaxed on the 4h chart, and if we make some new lows it might be met with a classic bullish div on 4h. this all depends on how and when we get there.

my view is pretty blurry as of now... and i have to confess, this fast "retracement-less" move down was NOT expected. i was almost positive it would bounce heavily from daily gann.... it was crazy and somewhat fishy.

too fast...
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