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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #81
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:00am Dec 1, 2008 3:00am
Let me share a thought...

I turned profitable (consistently) when it hit me that every trade need not be profitable and that it is fine if some days are loss makers.

Trading methods? Hardly matters really, but I am a breakout fanatic...
8:00am-8:30 am EST breakout... Yesterday's high/low breakout, Big Dog break out - (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103682) and so on.

My tp/sl in every trade is now 20/20 (That mystical number again!) On 10 or 12 charts this is extremely satisfying to work with. You're limited only by the real estate available on your monitor and the processing power at your disposal.

EDIT: An indispensable tool I can't do without is trailingstop ea which can set TSL at any number you want, even 5 pips.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 TrailingStopEA.ex4   8 KB | 391 downloads
  • #82
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:22am Dec 1, 2008 9:22am
There are systems that work, some work when the market ranges some when it trends. None of them work in both type of markets and none of them work in any market when we don't follow the rules of entry, exit and MM.

Just my take on this as newbie.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #83
  • Dec 1, 2008 9:58am Dec 1, 2008 9:58am
Quoting mt41969
Traded for barclays for 7 years. Trading for myself for 2 years 4 months. ROI is average of 39% per month. Profits are withdrawn weekly. Weekly starting bank is always £9,000.

So, if you had not withdrawn your profits, you'd have 91 million pounds in your account and be making 1.6 million pounds per business day. Instead, you just play with your meagerly 9k . They employ people like that in Barkleys? No wonder they lost 80% of their equity in the last year or so. Or wait, I guess they lost because you started trading for yourself ROFLMAO
  • #84
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:08am Dec 1, 2008 10:08am
There is a big difference now, the money is mine. Forex is all about protecting what bank you have. Before it was the banks money so i didnt give a toss, apart from achieving my bonuses.
  • #85
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:30am Dec 1, 2008 10:30am
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.
You're needing this

http://billstclair.com/blog/images/fukitol.jpg
  • #86
  • Dec 1, 2008 10:32am Dec 1, 2008 10:32am
yup.... poor vlad, trading must just beat the hell out of that poor boy......
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #87
  • Dec 1, 2008 11:48am Dec 1, 2008 11:48am
In my opinion trading and playing professional sports is very similar. You cannot win every night, you must have a game plan, you must stick to the game plan, you must be adaptive to the condition of the game, you cannot focus on one loss but must realize you are after the collective result of many games. Most know the dreadful statistic of over 90% failure rate. Lets compare this to some professional sports and the chances of making it there...especially without putting in the time to develop your skills

Basketball: 2.9 % of high school seniors play basketball in an NCAA college
1.3% of college seniors are drafted by an NBA team
.03% of high school seniors are drafted by an NBA team

Baseball5.6% of high school seniors play at an NCAA college
10.5% of college seniors are drafted by MLB
.5% of high school seniors are drafted by MLB

Football5.6% of high school seniors play football at an NCAA college
2% of college seniors are drafted by NFL
.09% of high school seniors are drafted by NFL

As you can see the chances are not very encouraging. But does this stop millions of kids and teenagers wanting to play sports for a living? No! It does not stop people from thinking they can fulfill their dreams. Anyone who makes it as a professional athlete has a passion for what they do. Both on and off the playing field. It is the same in trading you must love to refine your skills, know your weaknesses as well as your strengths. Just like there is no perfect sports team, there can be no perfect system. But you can create a plan to exploit the consistent processes the game must go through.
  • #88
  • Dec 1, 2008 12:37pm Dec 1, 2008 12:37pm
Quoting cesarnc
You're needing this

http://billstclair.com/blog/images/fukitol.jpg

i counted 18 posts from 15 or 16 members with nothing more than ad hominem attacks before i got tired counting in this thread.
I assume, at least half of them should be good traders and therefore billionires and soon-to-be trillionires. No?

I repeat once more, this time for retards, that:
1) My profitability this year was higher than one of 99%+ of all banks and financial institutions on the planet;
2) It has nothing to do with the fact that trading without insider info is nothing more than glorified gambling.
  • #89
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:36pm Dec 1, 2008 1:36pm
Quoting Vlad
i counted 18 posts from 15 or 16 members with nothing more than ad hominem attacks before i got tired counting in this thread.
I assume, at least half of them should be good traders and therefore billionires and soon-to-be trillionires. No?

I repeat once more, this time for retards, that:
1) My profitability this year was higher than one of 99%+ of all banks and financial institutions on the planet;
2) It has nothing to do with the fact that trading without insider info is nothing more than glorified gambling.
what a joke, who cares.
  • #90
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:37pm Dec 1, 2008 1:37pm
This sould be voted the most commical thread of all time.
  • #91
  • Dec 1, 2008 1:37pm Dec 1, 2008 1:37pm
Quoting HipsterPipster
what a joke, who cares.
Fo Sure
  • #92
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:06pm Dec 1, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting Gaston
I wondered when someone was going to try and add one last contestant to the annual "Shittiest Thread of the Year" award. I think this one has a pretty good chance...
  • #93
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:32pm Dec 1, 2008 2:32pm
Quoting parisienne
That, what everybody already knows but only few could integrate in their trading:

1. Sticking to a system that is statistically a winner
2. Controlling the emotions
3. Not listening to the "naysayers" and "know it all"
4. Not listening to the "gurus" and "experts" who analyzes the market. I call it "Anna lies", otherwise it would be "Anna says the truth"
5. And the most important one: to never give up, to never quit the battle.

...
P., but what about no single loss? - "statistically a winner" system presumes just that - wins> losses(stat.#)
though it shouldn't be a goal (balance is) - but some people do it...
  • #94
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:41pm Dec 1, 2008 2:41pm
There is not a 100% successful system.
The market is changing every second and what technical analysis does is creating a picture of the market.
A stationary system will have a probability of success, but as the market is always moving every system in this world would fail and that is a fact.
The key to success is finding a good system that wins more times than looses and for that you must study and practice a lot.
I have found a few good systems, I have made some good money, but it’s certain that I won’t make a life out of it.
  • #95
  • Dec 1, 2008 2:48pm Dec 1, 2008 2:48pm
I would disagree with your final statement. I have been making a life out of it for over 2 years since leaving barclays bank.

I agree you wont win every single trade. But i basket trade, whereby i make 8 BUYS or 8 SELLS in one go. The object is to have the total basket profit > 0.

...And that is possible.
  • #96
  • Edited Dec 2, 2008 12:02am Dec 1, 2008 3:07pm | Edited Dec 2, 2008 12:02am
Quoting fxxx
Quote:
Originally Posted by parisienne http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
I disagree. I disagree that there is no system, but not completely.

No system can be effective for ever, but combination of systems that fill out the gaps in each other, are the only way of a successful trading.

Yes, I know, many of you will not believe me and I also have no need to convince you - because I know what I am talking about....

I can proudly state that in the year 2008 I have not lost a single trade. This was not the case when I started out. ...
Parisienne said he had no losses; i know people do that - sometimes 4 fun or 4 the hell of it - but for whole year...
  • #97
  • Dec 1, 2008 3:38pm Dec 1, 2008 3:38pm
Quoting parisienne

I can proudly state that in the year 2008 I have not lost a single trade. This was not the case when I started out. I blew out two 10k accounts in one year and now I have difficulty in spending my money.

You had a chance on correcting your statement.
Now people will torn you out to pieces.
Some people here simply can't get it.
Probably they want to make a fool of themselves.
ahh!! wish ya good luck buddy!!!
  • #98
  • Dec 2, 2008 12:06am Dec 2, 2008 12:06am
why? -no; he don't pushing it;
does - good, no -no (everybody knows - it's not the main criteria or goal); just curious what might be the trick
  • #99
  • Dec 2, 2008 2:50am Dec 2, 2008 2:50am
Quoting fxxx
P., but what about no single loss? - "statistically a winner" system presumes just that - wins> losses(stat.#)
though it shouldn't be a goal (balance is) - but some people do it...
There are different ways to define a "statistically winner" strategy. What I meant was that if I define my take profit and stop loss values as same (e.g. tp 30, sl 30) then the win loss ratio is higher than 0.5. This is what I searched for.

To clear away any misunderstanding: My strategy is definitively not a 100% winner, i.e. win loss ratio is not 1. I just had no loss trading this year. I have had losses last year with this strategy but I still did very well. And no, I did not have just 5 trades so far. Usually there are 2-3 trades daily. Sometimes more and sometimes no trade at all.

I almost never trade EURUSD. I try to trade GBP, AUD and CAD pairs.

I just do not understand one thing properly. If there are so many people who believe that success in Forex is impossible, so why on earth are they trading this market? What can be the point of doing this? Do they love to harm themselves? Or are they philanthrophs trying to make the rich richer?

Regards and yes success is possible.
  • #100
  • Dec 2, 2008 4:38am Dec 2, 2008 4:38am
there is a law, THERE IS NO LAW... but still it is a law
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