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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #144,361
  • Nov 30, 2008 4:44pm Nov 30, 2008 4:44pm
Quoting Dr.Geppynius
i emphasize it from friday to friday

but no reason to get wet pants yet...until market is open, nothing is said.
cheers dr at least i had a thinking it was gapping up
  • #144,362
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:00pm Nov 30, 2008 5:00pm
I was wondering why auslanco left the thread... until I saw one of his last posts http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post2236588
  • #144,363
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:13pm Nov 30, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting emda
I was wondering why auslanco left the thread... until I saw one of his last posts http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post2236588
in all fairness he's made a ton of good to great calls
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #144,364
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:13pm Nov 30, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting auslanco
Long term I don't see this go below 188.90 area for sometime to come.
Yeah those who end up losing a lot of money or making seriously way off calls (even if it's just one) do usually abandon forums... I've seen it happen lots of times...














either that or he's on vacation lol
  • #144,365
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:37pm Nov 30, 2008 5:37pm
Quoting emda
I was wondering why auslanco left the thread... until I saw one of his last posts http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...88#post2236588
not sure you should go there that dudes name has been on the bottom

of my screen for quite some time now with very good reason
  • #144,366
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:40pm Nov 30, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting Petefaders
like I said, I didn't invent this, but It came about by learning from this site. Turns out to be very similar to Lilmoe's system, but less advanced as I was trying to create something simple. I am sure the system would be better off by implementing divergences and other more advanced things, as Lilmoe has and I am now, but this is probably a good templete for noobs with an itchy clicker finger.
*I'm too lazy to post all the indicators, but they should be available on the attachments to this thread. It should look like this...
By the way it is now...
thx
  • #144,367
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:40pm Nov 30, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting rgitt05
Hi mktjong,


I used the MACD that is still trending upward and it is still holding the trend . I am more focus on the fundamentals this week for that bullish bias...Not all divergence playout right away

you have contributed a great set of analysis on the weekend. i support your view of this going up... actually i've been yelling about a 1500-2000 pip retracement for the pact 2 weeks, lol...

HOWEVER, i will have to stand with mkt's side, that a bearish divergence IS present. YES, i do believe that daily 50ema is in the cards, but that freagin divergence formed really fast and strong. this should be good for at least a small delay of the upmove for another 2-3 days (maybe a week). the overbought readings on MACD should relax a bit before this shoots up again.

you also have to put in mind that the major mover of the beast is GU atm. GU has reached some serious OB levels close to a trendline (someone posted that GU trendline on the weekend, nice chart btw). IF cable breaks out of that trendline, the bearish divergence on its daily charts SUGGESTS a retest. so even if we breakout, that breakout would have a 50/50 chance of being fake. a second one might be the true breakout.

i know i say so much, but i'm trying to make a point. if price stalls here or tests the lows, we SHOULD a very good and healthy retracement that might reach levels higher than we're both expecting. HOWEVER, if this moves up from here and gets anywhere near a 38.2 retracement on your setup (also daily 50ema), we WILL break 139 eventually and reach levels even malcomb didn't expect; more like 2 digits.

these are the scenarios that should be playing out. trust me divergence is very important, it will strengthen your already great analysis and open your eyes to things you might have not noticed before.

great stuff big guy, i enjoy studying your charts
  • #144,368
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:48pm Nov 30, 2008 5:48pm
Quoting MoForce
Yeah those who end up losing a lot of money or making seriously way off calls (even if it's just one) do usually abandon forums... I've seen it happen lots of times...


















either that or he's on vacation lol

auslano is off doing other things with a trading room etc etc .

The market is dynamic that is why we like trading it. ...I mean looking at your posting one minute you are short the next long , also from you I have seen nothing sharing the systems you use , other than just blurting out long or short....( by the way I think you are way off base on GU ... the channel we are in is a bear flag)

In Aussie's absence there are other great traders like Karmo , lilmoe , piters , ovaforty ,dr g , etc etc that we can all learn from

actually post us a nice chart and a nice explanation of what is going on , what you plan to do and why , and then once you have been right 100 % of the time you can criticize others.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144,369
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:51pm Nov 30, 2008 5:51pm
Quoting malcolmb14
auslano is off doing other things with a trading room etc etc .

The market is dynamic that is why we like trading it. ...I mean looking at your posting one minute you are short the next long , also from you I have seen nothing sharing the systems you use , other than just blurting out long or short....( by the way I think you are way off base on GU ... the channel we are in is a bear flag)

In Aussie's absence there are other great traders like Karmo...
ok my bad... I'll go back to my cave and go into hiding for a year or so...
so long everyone
  • #144,370
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:53pm Nov 30, 2008 5:53pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I think as of dec 3rd price action gets ugly .. best thing for the automakers is to let them go bankrupt. It solves alot of their issues going forward with unions and pension plans , where 2000 profit of every vehicle goes to pay pensions of ex employees. How are they supposed to ever get to be profitable , well managed companies when the unions have a strangle hold on them.

I think it would be ridiculous if the Government burdens the taxpayer with paying pensions of ex automakers ... it has nothing to do with them !!!! The auto makers should...
Evening all and just getting caught up. This post by Malcolm seems to be right on target.
History is written by the victors.
  • #144,371
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:54pm Nov 30, 2008 5:54pm
Quoting PipChick
A close below the 4 hr 50 ema would probably negate my bullish bias.
yes, i was about to say the same thing. the bearish HD on the daily chart is getting too strong too fast. the bearish HD is even strong on GU's daily chart. these are things i didn't expect this fast because both pairs were in a correction/stallment condition before that upmove started.

2 scenarios in have in mind, no, actually 3.

1) we could range further until daily 50ema get's lower/closer to price. afterwords we'd spike there (on the daily chart) and reverse from there the same day or the very next day. we could even have a VERY slow uptrend till we reach there.

2) we could head down from here testing some lows until daily oscillators get out of that OB level, then start heading up, and probably taking out 50ema.

3) head up from here, making a 38.2 retracement at the MOST, and head down to make some 2 digit lows


i'm basing my prediction on similar patterns we had on daily and 4h charts for both GJ and GU.
  • #144,372
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:55pm Nov 30, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting MoForce
ok my bad... I'll go back to my cave and go into hiding for a year or so...
so long everyone
he didnt say that mo
  • #144,373
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:00pm Nov 30, 2008 6:00pm
Hi lilmoe,

Thanks for the feedback..It looks like the asia market will be more conservative and let the London market decided the bias ...My chart setup on the 4hr seems to playout so far and may bounce off the 144 range before taking off north...There is so much news this week..My past experience with PA before the rate decision for GU and EU is the market will take this up with no reason than drop ...However, atm the asian will pullback for a better position to long IMHO...Most of the PA may not happen until wed or thru...USD fundamentals is using the black friday and five day winning streak DJ for the excuse to go up to distract the overall bias the market deteriorating...




Quoting lilmoe
you have contributed a great set of analysis on the weekend. i support your view of this going up... actually i've been yelling about a 1500-2000 pip retracement for the pact 2 weeks, lol...

HOWEVER, i will have to stand with mkt's side, that a bearish divergence IS present. YES, i do believe that daily 50ema is in the cards, but that freagin divergence formed really fast and strong. this should be good for at least a small delay of the upmove for another 2-3 days (maybe a week). the overbought readings on MACD should relax a bit before this...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr.gif Size: 38 KB
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  • #144,374
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:00pm Nov 30, 2008 6:00pm
if the one hour gann flips we might see karmo tonight

by the way i hope you all had a good weekend
  • #144,375
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:03pm Nov 30, 2008 6:03pm
Quoting lilmoe
yes, i was about to say the same thing. the bearish HD on the daily chart is getting too strong too fast. the bearish HD is even strong on GU's daily chart. these are things i didn't expect this fast because both pairs were in a correction/stallment condition before that upmove started.

2 scenarios in have in mind, no, actually 3.

1) we could range further until daily 50ema get's lower/closer to price. afterwords we'd spike there (on the daily chart) and reverse from there the same day or the very next day. we could even have a VERY slow...

lol Lilmoe

so just to clarify in a nut shell you are saying :
we could sideways , up , or down ....lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144,376
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:04pm Nov 30, 2008 6:04pm
Quoting malcolmb14
actually post us a nice chart and a nice explanation of what is going on , what you plan to do and why , and then once you have been right 100 % of the time you can criticize others.
couldn't agree more, no offense MoForce.
  • #144,377
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:05pm Nov 30, 2008 6:05pm
closed my shorts too early.... T.T
  • #144,378
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:07pm Nov 30, 2008 6:07pm
USD/JPY like other pairs opened Asian trading in a very quiet manner. The pair has traded between 95.35/40 and 95.55/60 so far and looks to remain relatively quiet ahead of a slew of events this week including a slew of economic data out of the US and EZ and key central bank interest rate decisions. Interest rate cuts by the major G7 and non-G7 central banks are almost a given but accompanying statements will be perused carefully for clues as to any other near-term interest rate cuts, perhaps not this year but early the next. Economic data is likely to figure large in this regard, in particular the US nonfarm payrolls report this Friday. Japanese data will be light with most of the major releases out Friday. The picture painted was not good despite the freak drop in unemployment, and production is expected to continue to fall in the months ahead and pressure the general economic landscape.
Technically, USD/JPY is showing little bias with support noted just below between 95.26-95.33, the Ichimoku cloud on the hourly chart. The hourly chart also shows good support in the 95.10-20 zone, multiple lows since last Thursday. Topside, resistance is eyed from as close as 95.43, the Ichimoku kijun line on the hourly chart. The 100-hour moving average is at 95.46, the tenkan at 95.51 and the 200-hour at 95.56. The daily chart has the tenkan at 95.49 and the kijun up at 96.22, confirming good resistance trailing higher. USD/JPY currently trades 95.37/41
[
  • #144,379
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:07pm Nov 30, 2008 6:07pm
GU will be the main driver of gj this week , and ultimately the DX will determine the direction of the GU . The DX moves mostly in the US session , so some of the best moves this week will likely come in the US session

We have to see if DX breaches 88 level , and if it does the bear flag on the GU will break to the downside giving a target of 1.4190 , meaning gj will drop back into a test of 139 zone.
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #144,380
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:08pm Nov 30, 2008 6:08pm
Quoting malcolmb14
lol Lilmoe

so just to clarify in a nut shell you are saying :
we could sideways , up , or down ....lol
DUH!!!

but really, i added what the possible targets might be for either case. if we range we get this, if we go up NOW we get that, if we head down from here we'll get here, and so on... it's what a bearish HD in this levels means...

i'm holding on to a few longs i have from 141.60 and below.. i'll consider closing them if we close below 4h gann
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