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Stop fooling yourself; There is no system

  • #21
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:26am Nov 30, 2008 9:26am
Yes forex trading, like any other trading, is gambling. However, minimizing the risk is how you become profitable. Those who do well in this type of trading are those who make trades with the percentages in their favor and not get greedy.
  • #22
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:36am Nov 30, 2008 9:36am
Quoting ranger_lp
Yes forex trading, like any other trading, is gambling. However, minimizing the risk is how you become profitable. Those who do well in this type of trading are those who make trades with the percentages in their favor and not get greedy.
Indeed. Looking back at ones trading record, if the loosing trades are BIGGER than the winners you will NEVER get ahead. I have a SET stop loss when I take trade, but multiple, larger take profits to leave room for more gains once I'm already in. If my trades are 50% winners, I am up for the day.
  • #23
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:37am Nov 30, 2008 9:37am
Quoting parisienne
Yes, indeed! It sounds worse than a lie. But today I am so calm and deliberate in my planning for a trade that I often wait days for a proper setup. But I'm following all the majors against usd and jpy simultaneously, so I get enough opportunities almost every day.

I have seen my failure: it sounds that if I would trade against the major trend. That is not the case. The major trend is never ignored.

Regards
That's fine but the 2008 picking tops and bottoms - no-loss part is something I suggest to correct, for the record.

That is only if you want.....just trying to save you from embarrassment, buddy.
  • #24
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:42am Nov 30, 2008 9:42am
Forex itself is an informational energy system including not only technical system means, but also emotions and psychology of all its participants and the variety of different energy flows corresponding to money movement in the world. This energy creates a "magnet" - on the one side it attracts additional energy from those who touch it, on the other side it influences the psychology of those, who is in the sphere of its influence.

Despite its global nature, the Forex market is very sensitive and vulnerable. Events from the whole world influence it directly or indirectly. Statements of famous politicians and financiers, military and political conflicts, states of economy of different countries, price fluctuations in other markets - all these elicit changes of the situation in Forex. Besides there are attempts to manipulate the Forex market.

This energy appears long before a price changes on the chart.
Open several (4-6) minute charts on different symbols well correlated with the symbol you are going to work with. Observe price movements, trying to catch the general movement dynamics. You will see, that combination of dynamics movement of some symbols predetermines the movement of other symbols, so you will know the further movement of your symbol.

One can learn to feel the market and forecast it without additional technical means. Simply observe, trust yourself and be patient. Charts are only symbols, but they help to catch the energies that form and lead the market movement.

First, a person needs a back-up - some technical means like indicators and oscillators. Of course they can help. And traders widely use them. But actually those who have been trading for a long time feel the market intuitively. This is the secrete of success. And the earlier you understand this, the earlier you achieve this success. Indicators and oscillators are based on the past time. And what we need is the future. So, technical and fundamental analysis only hinder our quick movement to the future.

The market is dynamic and it constantly changes during a day which is connected with the dominating market (Asian, European or American), with entering or leaving of large participants, with news releases and other reasons. Optimization is a very long process and it cannot be conducted in real time. So optimization does not help much in adjusting used instruments which reflect only the market's past.

With the growth of computer power and software development, using in their basis the principle of searching knowledge, self-organization and self-training algorithms of forecasting, more and more popularity in trading will be gained by efficient mechanical trading systems. For traders that try to use trading systems built on the basis of indicators and oscillators it will be more difficult to compete and stay in the market.

The system is only a tool and for its efficient operation it must be the continuation of yourself. And the maximal result can be acquired only if this harmony is achieved.

This is only one approach to Forex forecasting.
I am sure many of you can find your own way out.
forexflash
  • #25
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:45am Nov 30, 2008 9:45am
I think the worst word in forex trading, and used by most forums, is the word "system." System implies an orderly engineered blueprint type layout much like the computers we use, the cars we drive, and the electrical system in our house and businesses. And when something goes wrong 90% of us have to call a systems expert to correct the problem. I continously think "strategy" as in checkers (my skill level), chess, bridge, ie brainy it-takes-some-thinking to be successful, a winner if you will. Incidently Buffet & Gates are international bridge masters. My .02 cents, thank you. p.
  • #26
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:55am Nov 30, 2008 9:55am
Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.
Facts.

1)Bill Gates won't even know what trading is. I assure you, he won't care either.

2) W. buffet is anti-trading. His economic models are far away opposite of trading. He does some speculations but in a very controlled environment.

3)Traders trying to make a whole lotta money with just a couple of bucks: There's a rookie section for that on this forum. I wonder , maybe you will find some of them here on "trading systems" section.. Well, that's easy. Just look around any "system" that has more than one indicator for "confirmation" and you might find those trying to make something out of nothing.

4) About the federal reserve insiders: That's impossible. Unless you have a last name ending up in the following: Stanley, Sachs, Mitsubishi, Roschtild, Rockefeller.

Trading is just a job you do. It's not glamorous, not pretty.

Trading for a living is just that, trying to make a livng. It's not fancy, not entretaining.

Trading gets you into a lot of frustration and deception, yet you need to carry on. If you can't take the heat, then you're lucky. We're in christmas time and a lot of mega-stores are hiring.

Posting here at FF it's a lot more entretaining than trading.
  • #27
  • Nov 30, 2008 9:58am Nov 30, 2008 9:58am
Any system has to be based on price action.
Then and only then will it give you an edge.
you don't need much of an edge.
Then you need good M/M & stick to your rules.

ie. chess & brigde have rules .. you break them & you lose
in the FX you need rules...the good thing is you get to set your own....
the bad news is you get to set your own.. so you can break them.
...if you do then your system has no edge or you are lossing the edge.
Either way you will in short order lose.


cheers

teb
  • #28
  • Nov 30, 2008 10:50am Nov 30, 2008 10:50am
Hi, If you can or if you would like to help with your system or way of trading [email protected] Thanks
  • #29
  • Nov 30, 2008 12:20pm Nov 30, 2008 12:20pm
ok. i think i will chime in here.

First, trading systems do exist. You have to evaluate it carefully. Most of these so called systems are garbage. There are plenty on this forum alone.

Second, people don't realize that you do not have to go for every pip. The number of pips do not necessarily make you the most money. Lot sizes do. Once you realize that you don't need 200 pips a trade.

Third, an extention of my second point; people stay in too long. They had a profit, but because they didn't get out, their position reversed and they lost.

Fourth, spot forex is quick. Anything longer would be best served by playing currency options. This way you have the benefit of time.

that's it for now
  • #30
  • Nov 30, 2008 12:50pm Nov 30, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting sed34
ok. i think i will chime in here.

First, trading systems do exist. You have to evaluate it carefully. Most of these so called systems are garbage. There are plenty on this forum alone.

Second, people don't realize that you do not have to go for every pip. The number of pips do not necessarily make you the most money. Lot sizes do. Once you realize that you don't need 200 pips a trade.

Third, an extention of my second point; people stay in too long. They had a profit, but because they didn't get out, their position reversed and they lost....
You are so right!
  • #31
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:09pm Nov 30, 2008 1:09pm
Quoting psiholog
My suggestion is instead of insulting everyone here which really gives you no solution and creates only ridicule...
I didnt insult anyone. What I said is that there is no "system" or a strategy or a "wit", "intuition " which makes 10, 5, 2, 1 or even 0.5% a month in forex exchange consistently. If there was, I already said what would have happen.
100 bucks make a trillion in less than 20 years at 10% a month. The only people who have made money in forex, aside of insiders of course, are:
a) those who convinced a lot of people with a lot of money that they can trade;
b) those who were lucky and quit early;
c) those who were lucky and downsized significantly;


There is nobody on this planet, let alone on this forum, who can prove this to be wrong.
I said I'm sorry.
  • #32
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:19pm Nov 30, 2008 1:19pm
"Stop fooling yourself. There is no system." Period.
well, some of us assumed that's exactly what you said and you exactly know what you talking about...sorry, don't want insult anyone.... : ))
  • #33
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:20pm Nov 30, 2008 1:20pm
Vlad,

Yes there are systems and strategies that work. I make over 1000 pips per week using basket trading 24/5.

Ofcourse you will not profit from every trade, thats virtually impossible. But if you have correct money management/lotsize and win 6 out of 10 trades then you WILL be in profit.

I suggest you go back and do your homework. Its like everything in life, if you put the work in then you will get the benefits back.

Yes, forex trading is just a posh word for gambling BUT there are allot of things you can do to make it profitable overall or reduce losses.

Most people in forex fail because they dont have a large enough bank in relation to the lotsize they are trading, using Martingale/Grid strategies, dont understand impact of news statements, rely purley on indicators which are lagging.
  • #34
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:31pm Nov 30, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting Vlad

There is nobody on this planet, let alone on this forum, who can prove this to be wrong.
I said I'm sorry.

So how do you prove to be right??
Just ranting??

You just come out here and vent your anger, with no elements whatsoever to judge what went wrong with you after 3 years. Who knows, maybe more.

Lay it out on the line. Gives us details.
  • #35
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:40pm Nov 30, 2008 1:40pm
Apparently you have come to this conclusion over and over again and yet you persist doing the same thing with each failed attempt. Of course there is no way to prove this sort of thing, becuase the future is unknown. This is an obfuscation though and a deliberate one at that. Not much point in any further disscussion, because you really are not open to any other opinion and it has been this way through out your posting. I certainly mean no disrespect, just trying to save my self a little time in attempting to help. I see no point in it.

Here is a history of your threads along this vein, but by no means complete.

This entire post was a waste of my time. LOL
I would wish you well in trading, but that also would be a waste of time.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...75&postcount=1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...46&postcount=1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...09&postcount=1
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...09&postcount=1
  • #36
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:41pm Nov 30, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting wiztrader
So how do you prove to be right??
Just ranting??

You just come out here and vent your anger, with no elements whatsoever to judge what went wrong with you after 3 years. Who knows, maybe more.

Lay it out on the line. Gives us details.

Here is all proof you need ( with examples). There is also a practice section for those of you who are new to it. http://www.math.com/
  • #37
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:41pm Nov 30, 2008 1:41pm
What do you mean "there is no system"??? How about this guy who has offered to sell me (at a low $499) his "Foolproof, pip making machine" with which i can make 1000s of dollars spending only 5 minutes a day?? That has gotta be a system!

Quoting Vlad
And there is no one who knows how to trade. If there was, W. Buffet would be his butler and Bill Gates his foot chair. 5% per month, which many "traders" find to be laughable, make 1 trillion dollars out of $50 in less than 40 years. Unless you are a fat rat from a Federal reserve with insider's info, trading is glorified gambling no more and no less. Only ones who win are those who are lucky and quit early. Sorry.
  • #38
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:01pm Nov 30, 2008 2:01pm
Quoting smjones
Apparently you have come to this conclusion over and over again and yet you persist doing the same thing with each failed attempt. Of course there is no way to prove this sort of thing, becuase the future is unknown. This is an obfuscation though and a deliberate one at that. Not much point in any further disscussion, because you really are not open to any other opinion and it has been this way through out your posting. I certainly mean no disrespect, just trying to save my self a little time in attempting to help. I see no point in it.

Here is...

I find it hilarious to hear the words "waste of my time " from someone who has time to post 4100 times over 2 years and read all my 145 posts. I guess, with such extensive expierence of forex trading you are a billionier already at the very least. Please PM me you position number in Forbes 400, I will be very honoured.
So, since you've honored me already with reading my 145 posts, many of which I haven't read myself in years, you know that I made 18% last year, ( thats just FYI for those "traders" whose dream I shattered and who can't come up with anything but ad hominem attacks)
Those 18% are bigger that results of 99%+ of all more or less important banks and investment funds on the planet this year, with all those fancy trading tables and sooper-dooper "professional traders".
  • #39
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:04pm Nov 30, 2008 2:04pm
Quoting Vlad
I find it hilarious to hear the words "waste of my time " from someone who has time to post 4100 times over 2 years and read all my 145 posts. I guess, with such extensive expierence of forex trading you are a billionier already at the very least. Please PM me you position number in Forbes 400, I will be very honoured.
So, since you've honored me already with reading my 145 posts, many of which I haven't read myself in years, you know that I made 18% last year, ( thats just FYI for those "traders" whose dream I shattered and who can't come...
tuoche' LOL so now the other shoe drops.. I will not respond here and let you have the last same word you have stated so many times before.
  • #40
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:13pm Nov 30, 2008 2:13pm
Quoting mt41969
Vlad,

Yes there are systems and strategies that work. I make over 1000 pips per week using basket trading 24/5.

I am glad that at least somebody found the way to beat the Math, I really am. With such astonishing results, you will accumulate enough money to throw all forum members a party on Tahiti with Angilina Jolie riding every single one of us. Just as a token of apreciation, common , it will be only a small token within a few months of such magnificent trading.
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