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4H 5EMA System

  • #1,821
  • Nov 29, 2008 6:35pm Nov 29, 2008 6:35pm
Quoting Polonaise
Does anybody know what was the result of this system in MAY 2008
Because my obserwation shows it was about -600pips.
Am i right or have I misunderstood something about this system?
I tested it on platform that uses GMT (London) time if it makes any difference

stersuhr do You use this system manualy or do you use ExpertAdvisor.

Sorry if someone have answered this question ealier but, it would take me a week or so to get through this thread.
My worst drawdown was around 600 pips but if you started on the first calendar day and went to the last day the worst calendar month was -250 I believe. I will have my results posted for the last year on Sunday or Monday. I trade this system manually. There is a EA in the works but I will need to see a few months of the EA running smoothly before I would consider using it. Look back on Sunday or Monday for the results.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,822
  • Nov 29, 2008 6:38pm Nov 29, 2008 6:38pm
Quoting k1_
Hey Sterling- just wanted to post my thanks for this clear, simple system, and all of your support for it. And a thanks as well to the other folks answering questions and supporting the effort here.

I've been working with the EA posted earlier, and modified it to put in a fixed-percentage risk method, which adjusts the lot size for every trade to be the same amount of capital at risk in the trade. Do I understand correctly there is an EA effort on another thread somewhere that I could contribute to? If someone would point me that direction I will...
Yeah it the official "EA" room for this system. Its called "4H 5EMA system's EA" or something similar to that. It in the trading systems section to. We are working on an offical EA for the thread and should have that done pretty quick. Last time I talked to the guy making it, he said it was almost done and just a few minor things had to be adjusted. I would figure I should have it this week and then I will test it. If it works as per the systems rules I will post it in that room, or have Toni post it.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,823
  • Nov 29, 2008 7:04pm Nov 29, 2008 7:04pm
Hey Sterling
I was just going to ask about the latest EA and whether the one on post #1518 was valid or not. Since I have just set up to start paper trading, I can run a parallel demo withe the EA and compare. Or I will wait for your man. Your call.

Larry
  • #1,824
  • Nov 29, 2008 7:57pm Nov 29, 2008 7:57pm
Quoting LarryR
Hey Sterling
I was just going to ask about the latest EA and whether the one on post #1518 was valid or not. Since I have just set up to start paper trading, I can run a parallel demo withe the EA and compare. Or I will wait for your man. Your call.

Larry
As of right now there is no EA that trades the system per the rules. Duncan is very close and should have it shortly. I will let everyone know when I have tested it and its done.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,825
  • Edited Nov 30, 2008 5:56pm Nov 29, 2008 8:45pm | Edited Nov 30, 2008 5:56pm
Trade #27 - We sold at 1.5378 and got a buy signal at 1.5373 so we exited for a +5 pip profit.

Trade #28 - We had a buy signal triggered at 1.5373 and got stopped out in the same bar at 1.5218 for a -155 pip loss.

Trade #29 - We sold at 1.5349 and got stopped out in the same bar at 1.5452 for a -103 pip loss.

Trade #30 - We sold at 1.5370 and exited at 1.5409 when we had a buy signal for a -39 pip loss.

Trade #31 - We bought at 1.5409 and exited 5 minutes before the market closed at 1.5375 for a -34 pip loss.


A little lesson on Forex "systems"

Anyone with even a little bit of knowledge can make a system that is specific to one type of market. What I mean is someone could make a trending system and when the market is trending they are going to make a killing. Someone could also make a range bound system, one that sells at the tops and buys at the bottoms and in a range bound market they would clean up. But what happens when a range bound system encounters a trending market, and what happens when a trending system encounters a range bound market? If they can break even that would be absolutly amazing, more than likely they would loose hundreds of pips that month.

To be clear to everyone this system contains a little of both system. Dont get me wrong if I had to choose a type of system this was I would say a trending system more than the other. But it holds its own quite well in any market and that is why I say it can be a ranging market system. So what does that tell you about this system? In the last few weeks we have seen some of the worst markets for both systems. Trending markets that turn on a dime, ranging market that break out and then go right back the other way, it should show you the strength of this system. This month we are up +97 pips despite all this. When other systems are getting killed were holding are own. The last two months have been well below average but think about this. In two months we have made +150 pips. With my MM of 1 lot per 20K thats 7.5% in two months or 3.75% a month, and thats 2 really bad months. Thats 45% a year, people would kill for that, and thats are bad months! The good months are going to be awesome!

-Sterling
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,826
  • Nov 29, 2008 8:56pm Nov 29, 2008 8:56pm
what if we combine another system more range oriented to support this EMA5 system?

wouldn't, I mean the sum, get out of any market situation?

When I'll have the monthly backtest I will start working on an "assistant system" that will rock in range markets and provide a roughly breakeven in strong trend periods. I hope I will be able to reach some result

Imho this is the best way, EMA 5 is already very good.
  • #1,827
  • Nov 29, 2008 9:13pm Nov 29, 2008 9:13pm
Quoting Corre
what if we combine another system more range oriented to support this EMA5 system?

wouldn't, I mean the sum, get out of any market situation?

When I'll have the monthly backtest I will start working on an "assistant system" that will rock in range markets and provide a roughly breakeven in strong trend periods. I hope I will be able to reach some result

Imho this is the best way, EMA 5 is already very good.
If someone can come up with something like that I would consider doing it. Its just very hard to have a completely mechanical system that works great in ranging market and yet breaks even in trending markets. Im all ears for a system that does this. You could maybe even take me up on the 4H 5EMA challenge if you like

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,828
  • Nov 29, 2008 9:21pm Nov 29, 2008 9:21pm
Quoting stersuhr
Trade #27 - We sold at 1.5378 and got a buy signal at 1.5373 so we exited for a +5 pip profit.

Trade #28 - We had a buy signal triggered at 1.5373 and got stopped out in the same bar at 1.5218 for a -155 pip loss.

Trade #29 - We sold at 1.5370 and exited at 1.5409 when we had a buy signal for a -39 pip loss.

Trade #30 - We bought at 1.5409 and exited 5 minutes before the market closed at 1.5375 for a -34 pip loss.

Trade #31 - The last bar before the market closed on Sunday was a setup bar to go short. So, if the market opens up below 1.5357...

hi sterling,

Aren't you forgetting the trade before trade #29?? from looking at your chart. Aren't the 2 candle before the trade # 29 setup bar is another setup bar to go SHORT which got trigger by the next bar....which should have been a -100 trade........hope u understand me

thank you
  • #1,829
  • Nov 29, 2008 11:10pm Nov 29, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting zima805
hi sterling,

Aren't you forgetting the trade before trade #29?? from looking at your chart. Aren't the 2 candle before the trade # 29 setup bar is another setup bar to go SHORT which got trigger by the next bar....which should have been a -100 trade........hope u understand me

thank you
Zima,
This Chart may help explain what may be hard to see on Sterlings.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #1,830
  • Nov 30, 2008 2:32am Nov 30, 2008 2:32am
Quoting zima805
hi sterling,

Aren't you forgetting the trade before trade #29?? from looking at your chart. Aren't the 2 candle before the trade # 29 setup bar is another setup bar to go SHORT which got trigger by the next bar....which should have been a -100 trade........hope u understand me

thank you
Yes, you're right.
That short setup bar got triggered in the following bar, and then stopped in the same bar.
I don't have my MT platform to confirm the lost pips, though.
  • #1,831
  • Nov 30, 2008 3:34am Nov 30, 2008 3:34am
Hello all,

I would like to add my thanks to Sterling for his patience and help to us all.

I have been demoing this for a week now and feel like I am starting to get my head around it.

I will stick with it even though the wife is complaining about the midnight shift LOL

As I live in Oz we are in bed when the main markets are trading so an EA would be very helpful.

Thanks
Money grows on the tree of persistence
  • #1,832
  • Edited 6:02am Nov 30, 2008 4:26am | Edited 6:02am
Quoting stersuhr
Yeah it the official "EA" room for this system. Its called "4H 5EMA system's EA" or something similar to that. It in the trading systems section to. We are working on an official EA for the thread and should have that done pretty quick. Last time I talked to the guy making it, he said it was almost done and just a few minor things had to be adjusted. I would figure I should have it this week and then I will test it. If it works as per the systems rules I will post it in that room, or have Toni post it.

-Sterling
Thanks for the updates sterling -from years of experience trialling various ea's it is not the rules of the trading system which necessarily cause the ea to fail but the money management and broker compatibility. For example what will the ea do if the broker re-quotes an open or close trade? What percentage risk is taken with each trade? What profit protection is built? Does the ea protect a minimum amount of my account should the worst happen? Now all of these things may appear obvious to manual traders but not to a trading robot as I am sure you are aware. It's good to see it is being given a thorough test.
  • #1,833
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:23am Nov 30, 2008 6:23am
Hi Bullrock

While you are here, have you had any success with using your 1 min data over the past 8 years and testing of a few pairs as you mentioned before?
Regards
  • #1,834
  • Nov 30, 2008 6:34am Nov 30, 2008 6:34am
Quoting howard
Hi Bullrock

While you are here, have you had any success with using your 1 min data over the past 8 years and testing of a few pairs as you mentioned before?

Oh, Hi Howard.

Yeah... I am still coding... Basically the data is so large that it is impossible or very difficult to fit it into an excel sheet. So I am writing some code. Very close but still something to do. Probably next week sometime...

Have a nice day. My half a marathon is waiting for me.
.
  • #1,835
  • Nov 30, 2008 1:10pm Nov 30, 2008 1:10pm
[quote=tonirai;2385044]Yes, you're right.
That short setup bar got triggered in the following bar, and then stopped in the same bar.
I don't have my MT platform to confirm the lost pips

Forgot to write that in there, good eye thank you. I'll put it in when I get home later.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,836
  • Nov 30, 2008 4:13pm Nov 30, 2008 4:13pm
Hi All,
Hope y'all had a great weekend.

As per my charts, 11/28 20:00 candle went above the upper ema. Sunday open candle was in between the emas.

Have a pending sell order
@ 1.53510 with SL 1.5431

Thanks
Peace
  • #1,837
  • Edited 5:11pm Nov 30, 2008 4:40pm | Edited 5:11pm
Quoting denverdude
Hi All,
Hope y'all had a great weekend.

As per my charts, 11/28 20:00 candle went above the upper ema. Sunday open candle was in between the emas.

Have a pending sell order
@ 1.53510 with SL 1.5431

Thanks
Peace
Denver,
On my Alpari chart, I have the low of that last candle at 1.5362. We do no pay spread on sell orders, So our sell should be 5 pips lower at 1.5357. A;so, shouldn't we be long on the Alpari chart, when the 12:00 candle broke? High was 1.5401 so we should be long at 1.5410.

My other broker with different close times had a buy trigger near the close on Friday, as the high of the 12:00 candle was broken. High = 1.5390 (Crown Forex). So using that chart I would be long @ 1.5399 which was the very high of the candle before the close. My broker closed early due to thanksgiving.
Michael
  • #1,838
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:13pm Nov 30, 2008 5:13pm
Quoting alllivemind
Denver,
On my Alpari chart, I have the low of that last candle at 1.5362. We do no pay spread on sell orders, So our sell should be 5 pips lower at 1.5357.
Michael
Hi Michael,
My charts are not with Alpari - it is FxPro. The low is 1.53560 and therefore, my sell stop is at 1.53510.

Hope this helps,
Peace
  • #1,839
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:38pm Nov 30, 2008 5:38pm
Quoting alllivemind
Denver,
On my Alpari chart, I have the low of that last candle at 1.5362. We do no pay spread on sell orders, So our sell should be 5 pips lower at 1.5357. A;so, shouldn't we be long on the Alpari chart, when the 12:00 candle broke? High was 1.5401 so we should be long at 1.5410.
Your sell stop is right;
Yes, we are long since the openning (we have "reopenned" the previous long, since the openning was above last bar's low-5);
But review your math on Friday's last long (1.5401 + 8 = 1.5409)
  • #1,840
  • Nov 30, 2008 5:57pm Nov 30, 2008 5:57pm
Quoting tonirai
Your sell stop is right;
Yes, we are long since the openning (we have "reopenned" the previous long, since the openning was above last bar's low-5);
But review your math on Friday's last long (1.5401 + 8 = 1.5409)
I have fixed the chart and added that trade so everyone can go look at that if you like.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
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