DislikedStill holding shorts over the weekend.
The reason for the gao down...who knows but thats what I am expecting.Ignored
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #144,301
- Nov 29, 2008 2:35am Nov 29, 2008 2:35am
- Joined May 2008 | Status: has long shorts | 2,584 Posts
- #144,302
- Nov 29, 2008 3:39am Nov 29, 2008 3:39am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Based on my charts, the PA have been ranging or consolidating for a major breakout to the upside...The last four Daily candles made an attempt to break the major Resistance( 148-149 ) with each candle failing with lower highs..
Finally Friday candle pullback, and I feel is consolidating for a major breakout above 149 Resistance...The Dow Jones made a record 5 day winning streak this week since 1933 and the market bias may take this upward as a reason that the market is recoverying...
On the daily chart, 148-149 range resistance for the whole week made several attempts to breakout above this area but failed..Next week, the economic calender have some major news that may justify the recovery for the USD..Both the dollar index is strengthen and DJ are recoverying this past week.
IMHO, the PA on the daily chart is showing an attempt to retrace back to the 23.6 %(152 range) and may continue to the 38.2%( 160 range) near the 50ema.
Technical
MACD is trending upward to the zero line
RSI is trending upward to the 50 range
The last four daily candles are above the Gann-Hilo.
UJ and GU are retracing back.
My observation is the breakout to the upside will happen next week based on the fundamentals bias and technical PA that GJ made this week.
I feel that December will be retracement month before a major fallout to the lows again..This weekend may pullback before a major breakout to the upside.
This is my observation and I could be wrong..You be the judge..This beast can go anyway it want... The correlation of the GU and UJ are showing retracement..The GU seems to lead the majority of the recovery from it lows for the week...My target this week is 160.00.
Good Luck..
Finally Friday candle pullback, and I feel is consolidating for a major breakout above 149 Resistance...The Dow Jones made a record 5 day winning streak this week since 1933 and the market bias may take this upward as a reason that the market is recoverying...
On the daily chart, 148-149 range resistance for the whole week made several attempts to breakout above this area but failed..Next week, the economic calender have some major news that may justify the recovery for the USD..Both the dollar index is strengthen and DJ are recoverying this past week.
IMHO, the PA on the daily chart is showing an attempt to retrace back to the 23.6 %(152 range) and may continue to the 38.2%( 160 range) near the 50ema.
Technical
MACD is trending upward to the zero line
RSI is trending upward to the 50 range
The last four daily candles are above the Gann-Hilo.
UJ and GU are retracing back.
My observation is the breakout to the upside will happen next week based on the fundamentals bias and technical PA that GJ made this week.
I feel that December will be retracement month before a major fallout to the lows again..This weekend may pullback before a major breakout to the upside.
This is my observation and I could be wrong..You be the judge..This beast can go anyway it want... The correlation of the GU and UJ are showing retracement..The GU seems to lead the majority of the recovery from it lows for the week...My target this week is 160.00.
Good Luck..
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- #144,303
- Nov 29, 2008 6:32am Nov 29, 2008 6:32am
- | Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Sniper | 1,001 Posts
Money & Pain
Respect the market, protect your capital, be patient
- #144,304
- Nov 29, 2008 7:20am Nov 29, 2008 7:20am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
This week will be a nice retracement between 1500-2000 pips..
Mark my word... I have been a swing trader for 4 years, and I have experienced big retracements and breakouts..
Good Luck!!
Mark my word... I have been a swing trader for 4 years, and I have experienced big retracements and breakouts..
Good Luck!!
Nice analysis rgitt
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- #144,305
- Nov 29, 2008 7:41am Nov 29, 2008 7:41am
- Joined Mar 2008 | Status: Name real with real own way | 23,413 Posts
This week will be a nice retracement between 1500-2000 pips..
Mark my word... I have been a swing trader for 4 years, and I have experienced big retracements and breakouts..
Good Luck!!
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
- #144,306
- Nov 29, 2008 7:56am Nov 29, 2008 7:56am
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #144,307
- Nov 29, 2008 8:14am Nov 29, 2008 8:14am
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Thanks
Time will tell if the GJ PA follows the path...
Time will tell if the GJ PA follows the path...
Both analysis /prediction should be true to me . I am confident it will make the highest level and if sufficient movements rather those chopy chopy will make the lowest low too . Hope it happen , we are ready. First make the high to 151+ & then big fall to the bottom at least but may not down further this year end .so the 4th wave retracement of wave C may continue one more turn, if so there will be more fun,more green pips.
fontu
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- #144,308
- Nov 29, 2008 12:04pm Nov 29, 2008 12:04pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
I see 160 on the card again ..lol ..
we could see breakout either way , however really guys this week was low volume week, If the pros were going to push it to 160 they would have done so already.
If anything we may get drop in market going into xmas , thus meaning a little strength in us bonds , and dx breaking 88 , as hedge funds unload their losers for capital losses tax claim.
The best the markets could this week with all of the bail outs was 8830 on the dj .
of note on the dj is that it has been a steady push up ...... and the volume has been VERY low.
Personally I think the markets are due to form an interim top this week with a move down into December 15th / 16th where a low pivot may form. I actually think the pros are looking to start accumulating gj long term , not selling it and they want price lower not higher to be able to do this .... sounds crazy right but i did call a interim top NOV 25th about 2 weeks ago and look where the high was this week. If the pros wanted to sell gj long term I would have thought they would have used this week to push the market higher , specially with all the good news out there (citibank bail out , BOC bail out , fed injecting money into credit market etc etc).
this consolidation phase could go either way right now
, but with resistance not being broken on the 4 hr chart and if anything a hint at a bearish divergence I see downside testing 144/ 143 before any upside move
we could see breakout either way , however really guys this week was low volume week, If the pros were going to push it to 160 they would have done so already.
If anything we may get drop in market going into xmas , thus meaning a little strength in us bonds , and dx breaking 88 , as hedge funds unload their losers for capital losses tax claim.
The best the markets could this week with all of the bail outs was 8830 on the dj .
of note on the dj is that it has been a steady push up ...... and the volume has been VERY low.
Personally I think the markets are due to form an interim top this week with a move down into December 15th / 16th where a low pivot may form. I actually think the pros are looking to start accumulating gj long term , not selling it and they want price lower not higher to be able to do this .... sounds crazy right but i did call a interim top NOV 25th about 2 weeks ago and look where the high was this week. If the pros wanted to sell gj long term I would have thought they would have used this week to push the market higher , specially with all the good news out there (citibank bail out , BOC bail out , fed injecting money into credit market etc etc).
this consolidation phase could go either way right now
, but with resistance not being broken on the 4 hr chart and if anything a hint at a bearish divergence I see downside testing 144/ 143 before any upside move
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #144,309
- Nov 29, 2008 12:51pm Nov 29, 2008 12:51pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 1,651 Posts
cool, isn't that a bit close to my system?
i have listed some guidelines to filter out bad trades... check them out.
I'll check out your filter guidelines, thanks!
- #144,311
- Nov 29, 2008 3:16pm Nov 29, 2008 3:16pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Hi malcolmb,
The last four 4hr candle for friday made an attempt with no success to break the 147-148 range resistance and setting lower lows for the day..You are right the volume was too low for a major breakout...My past experience observing GJ PA , I made the same concluding that the PA will test the lows again in the 144 range and if that breaks than the 141 range.
I managed to leave my shorts positions over the weekend,and I hope the 144 support on the 4hr is test before heading back up...I will take a long position if the 144 support holds up for a retracement..
In the short term, the PA will probably retrace back up to maybe the 160-165 range until the middle of Dec. or the end of Dec. where the holidays have another low volume when the fundamentals come out with more bad news to support the bearish bias long term...Also, I remember the PA last Dec. low volume during the holidays made some big drops. I will be set to take another big short position on the highest retracement for a nice long drop to a new low for the year...
The last four 4hr candle for friday made an attempt with no success to break the 147-148 range resistance and setting lower lows for the day..You are right the volume was too low for a major breakout...My past experience observing GJ PA , I made the same concluding that the PA will test the lows again in the 144 range and if that breaks than the 141 range.
I managed to leave my shorts positions over the weekend,and I hope the 144 support on the 4hr is test before heading back up...I will take a long position if the 144 support holds up for a retracement..
In the short term, the PA will probably retrace back up to maybe the 160-165 range until the middle of Dec. or the end of Dec. where the holidays have another low volume when the fundamentals come out with more bad news to support the bearish bias long term...Also, I remember the PA last Dec. low volume during the holidays made some big drops. I will be set to take another big short position on the highest retracement for a nice long drop to a new low for the year...
I see 160 on the card again ..lol ..
we could see breakout either way...
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- #144,314
- Nov 29, 2008 5:15pm Nov 29, 2008 5:15pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
You should look at the quote for the GJ now..
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
The 4hr candles made many attempts to break the high but failed...The last four 4hr candles made lower highs. That means that the PA will test the supports...PA is falling to the maybe 144 range(near the gann-hilo) and if that don't hold than 141 range..
Good Luck on the long atm...
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
The 4hr candles made many attempts to break the high but failed...The last four 4hr candles made lower highs. That means that the PA will test the supports...PA is falling to the maybe 144 range(near the gann-hilo) and if that don't hold than 141 range..
Good Luck on the long atm...
Could it be this simple?
http://i34.tinypic.com/r01amh.jpg
Looking at it this way..that trip to 137.50 is just a big distracting "hole" in our otherwise simple channel...hmmm.
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- #144,315
- Nov 29, 2008 5:36pm Nov 29, 2008 5:36pm
- | Commercial User | Joined Mar 2008 | 1,651 Posts
You should look at the quote for the GJ now..
http://www.forex-markets.com/quotes.htm
The 4hr candles made many attempts to break the high but failed...The last four 4hr candles made lower highs. That means that the PA will test the supports...PA is falling to the maybe 144 range(near the gann-hilo) and if that don't hold than 141 range..
Good Luck on the long atm...
- #144,316
- Nov 29, 2008 5:40pm Nov 29, 2008 5:40pm
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,719 Posts
i am with you on this. very nice analysis!
This week will be a nice retracement between 1500-2000 pips..
Mark my word... I have been a swing trader for 4 years, and I have experienced big retracements and breakouts..
Good Luck!!
Nihil Sine Deo.
- #144,317
- Nov 29, 2008 5:48pm Nov 29, 2008 5:48pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
I believe the market is waiting on the weekend sales and don't forget the internet sales on monday...There is some major news this week that may support the USD...GU and EU rate decision...The three car dealership bailout decision, USD ADP, etc...The bias so far look positive going into Dec. but I feel at the end of the year it will get real ugly for PA...
The pullback maybe minor on sunday but will rebound for a retracement since it broke the daily trendline and gann-hilo...
The pullback maybe minor on sunday but will rebound for a retracement since it broke the daily trendline and gann-hilo...
You have good points there.
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- #144,318
- Nov 29, 2008 6:00pm Nov 29, 2008 6:00pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
Thanks Scrat 
We are due for a big retracement after this week consolidation.
My bias is retracement to the 38.2 level(160)..Their maybe some pullback on the sunday open since the volume that malcolmb14 pointed out was the reason for the failed attempts to breakout of the range...I am buying on the dips for a better position..The EU is weaken and GU is strengthen...I believe the UJ is waiting on the car dealership bailout...The correlation for the GJ is mixed now since the UJ is not moving from the 95-96 range..(waiting for strong news) .The 4hr looks bullish atm since it broke above the gann but daily is still bearish.
This week is screaming for action and the market is ready for ACTION....
We are due for a big retracement after this week consolidation.
My bias is retracement to the 38.2 level(160)..Their maybe some pullback on the sunday open since the volume that malcolmb14 pointed out was the reason for the failed attempts to breakout of the range...I am buying on the dips for a better position..The EU is weaken and GU is strengthen...I believe the UJ is waiting on the car dealership bailout...The correlation for the GJ is mixed now since the UJ is not moving from the 95-96 range..(waiting for strong news) .The 4hr looks bullish atm since it broke above the gann but daily is still bearish.
This week is screaming for action and the market is ready for ACTION....
i am with you on this. very nice analysis!
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- #144,319
- Nov 29, 2008 8:53pm Nov 29, 2008 8:53pm
- Joined Oct 2005 | Status: Trader | 3,596 Posts
This past week you can see the PA ranged between 144-148...This is a Classic Consolidation for a major breakout...
Based on my MACD that is trending up and the candles are trending upward, my bias is bullish toward the 78.6% retracement range 160.00.
Two of the trendlines intercept at the 148 and 160 range...
At this moment, the PA is pulling back to fullfill the consolidation range touching the bottom near the 144 range before a major breakout upward IMHO...
My target is 160.00 .
Fundamentals atm is bullish this past week with DJ finishing 5 days in the positive and dollar index bullish atm..If the EU and GU cut rate this week, that will strengthen the USD more and the oil will go lower $35-$40 barrel.
Although USD have a ADP which is expected negative this week, I believe if the congress approve the car dealership bailout and Obama state no taxes increase this week. My bias will be positive this week..
You be the judge on the charts..
We are due for a retracement....
Based on my MACD that is trending up and the candles are trending upward, my bias is bullish toward the 78.6% retracement range 160.00.
Two of the trendlines intercept at the 148 and 160 range...
At this moment, the PA is pulling back to fullfill the consolidation range touching the bottom near the 144 range before a major breakout upward IMHO...
My target is 160.00 .
Fundamentals atm is bullish this past week with DJ finishing 5 days in the positive and dollar index bullish atm..If the EU and GU cut rate this week, that will strengthen the USD more and the oil will go lower $35-$40 barrel.
Although USD have a ADP which is expected negative this week, I believe if the congress approve the car dealership bailout and Obama state no taxes increase this week. My bias will be positive this week..
You be the judge on the charts..
We are due for a retracement....
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