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Will my scalping EA survive live?

  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 28, 2008 5:52pm Nov 28, 2008 5:52pm
So I had my system built. In the 4 days it traded this week it placed 304 trades all on EUR/USD and had total account growth of 3.4%. My forward testing was more for testing the EA to work out any bugs. I am confident the strategy works. It seems to work on a demo account. I run through IBFX. Am I going to get slaughtered by requotes and delay?
  • #2
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:27pm Nov 28, 2008 7:27pm
Quoting permanentjaun
So I had my system built. In the 4 days it traded this week it placed 304 trades all on EUR/USD and had total account growth of 3.4%. My forward testing was more for testing the EA to work out any bugs. I am confident the strategy works. It seems to work on a demo account. I run through IBFX. Am I going to get slaughtered by requotes and delay?
Are you trying to sell your EA or what ?
  • #3
  • Nov 28, 2008 7:41pm Nov 28, 2008 7:41pm
Quoting permanentjaun
So I had my system built. In the 4 days it traded this week it placed 304 trades all on EUR/USD and had total account growth of 3.4%. My forward testing was more for testing the EA to work out any bugs. I am confident the strategy works. It seems to work on a demo account. I run through IBFX. Am I going to get slaughtered by requotes and delay?
You will more likely be slaughtered by the smaller volatility on their live account.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #4
  • Nov 28, 2008 8:34pm Nov 28, 2008 8:34pm
Quoting LaTeCoMeR
Are you trying to sell your EA or what ?
No. I'm ready to take the dive and go live, and I've never gone live with an EA; only manual trading.
  • #5
  • Nov 28, 2008 8:36pm Nov 28, 2008 8:36pm
Quoting Craig
You will more likely be slaughtered by the smaller volatility on their live account.
What do you mean by smaller volatility and what is it about it that will ruin trading?
  • #6
  • Nov 28, 2008 10:41pm Nov 28, 2008 10:41pm
'Scalping' usually depends on lots of price little movements, the measure of the movement of the price is called 'volatility', my experience is that there is more volatility on the demo account, of course I have no idea how your EA works so everything I'm writing may well be wrong. Another thing to remember is that recent market conditions have been very volatile so your EA may be exploiting these conditions, in this case it is just a matter of having some measure of performance below which you will not go, for when market conditions change, which they will.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #7
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:00pm Nov 28, 2008 11:00pm
I know what scalping and volatility is. I wasn't sure what you meant by smaller volatility.

My EA is sort of a grid/range EA. I won't get whipsawed by any indicators as it trades naked.
  • #8
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:28pm Nov 28, 2008 11:28pm
Sorry, misinterpreted your question. Grid EA eh? Do you know the story of Dr Zogg?
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #9
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:32pm Nov 28, 2008 11:32pm
Nope. Enlighten me.
  • #10
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:42pm Nov 28, 2008 11:42pm
He was this guy that used to hang on various forums a couple of years ago, he developed some crazy complex grid EA, which he of course swore blind was not a grid EA, but reading his account statements it was pretty obvious. At the time his EA seemed to work pretty well, he was making a lot of money, so much so that he ended up setting up a whole bunch of companies and a website etc, he was also pretty aggressive on forums 'there is no edge, only MM' etc etc... But in the end all grid EAs are reliant on ranging markets, unfortunately he had got to the point where he was believing his own BS, anyway, around Oct, 2006 the EUR/USD started it's big trend up and his EA went deeper and deeper into the shit, even when he was like in a $100K draw down he was still sticking to his guns. He ended up wiping out in the most public way possible then went strangely silent.

I spent a long time trying to back engineer what he was doing, all in vain in the end.
I'm not saying this will happen to you, it's just something that comes to mind when people talk about grid EAs, beware the trend! If you have solved the danglers problem, then you should probably get a Nobel prize!
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #11
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:52pm Nov 28, 2008 11:52pm
Quoting Craig
He was this guy that used to hang on various forums a couple of years ago, he developed some crazy complex grid EA, which he of course swore blind was not a grid EA, but reading his account statements it was pretty obvious. At the time his EA seemed to work pretty well, he was making a lot of money, so much so that he ended up setting up a whole bunch of companies etc, he was also pretty aggressive on forums 'there is no edge, only MM' etc etc... All grid EAs are reliant on ranging markets, but he had got to the point where he was believing his...

My definition of 'grid' trading is different. This is partly because I never understood what people were doing when they grid traded.

When I speak of grid trading I mean that my entries and exits are completely mathematical in terms of price needing to move up or down a certain amount of pips. There are no indicators.

My EA works very well in trending markets. You've still got me worried about this 'smaller volatility' thing though. Are you saying price ranges more than it trends or just that the movements each way are just smaller yet the time spent ranging/trending is the same as a demo? Still sorta confused on what you mean.
  • #12
  • Nov 28, 2008 11:57pm Nov 28, 2008 11:57pm
I thought you were talking about standard scalping, which obviously does not apply here. The IBFX account just seemed to have less range on a bar by bar basis, so that EAs that where reliant on this movement failed in live accounts (like the one I was running ), I'm not sure how this applies to you, if you have been forward testing and you reckon it's good on a trend, I'm sure you will do Ok. If you want a more detailed account of what happened, PM me and I'll give you the gory detail.
The breaking of a wave cannot explain the whole sea.
  • #13
  • Nov 29, 2008 12:01am Nov 29, 2008 12:01am
Ha. What do you mean by standard scalping? I'd say 308 trades in 4 days is scalping.

PM coming your way.
  • #14
  • Nov 29, 2008 12:52am Nov 29, 2008 12:52am
308 trades over 4 days. That's 77 trades per day average. IBFX's lowest spread is 2. That's 154 pips per day in spread, 616 pips total spread at the very least.

I think you're going to have a very hard time surviving real trades w/ those kind of costs.
  • #15
  • Nov 29, 2008 1:30am Nov 29, 2008 1:30am
Why do you say that? If I have to overcome the spread in demo I have to overcome the spread live. The spreads will vary more live, but the EA is programmed to take that into consideration.
  • #16
  • Nov 29, 2008 2:46am Nov 29, 2008 2:46am
Quoting permanentjaun
Why do you say that? If I have to overcome the spread in demo I have to overcome the spread live. The spreads will vary more live, but the EA is programmed to take that into consideration.
Yes, but in the demo account you have no sliippage and instant fills, no requotes... All those nice things you'll have in a live account.
  • #17
  • Nov 29, 2008 11:13am Nov 29, 2008 11:13am
My EA bases the exits off of where it enters so while slippage will suck, I don't think it will affect things too too much. Re-quotes will be interesting.

Are there any currencies that are generally better with slippage and re-quotes? I'm fine with only trading eur/usd.
  • #18
  • Nov 29, 2008 12:41pm Nov 29, 2008 12:41pm
Ok Just go live with a MICRO lot account ($0.01/pip) , just to try it man and watch it closely and of course just fund it with the minimum.
'Good luck'.
  • #19
  • Nov 29, 2008 12:43pm Nov 29, 2008 12:43pm
Yea I am. Just anxious that's all.
  • #20
  • Feb 15, 2009 12:24am Feb 15, 2009 12:24am
How did it go? i got a scalper indicator that has done amazing for me. works like an ea but it is manual. good luck with it.

BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
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