Well yeah, I guess this is mission impossible then?
Top 100 best Trading Systems: post good Trading Systems here 48 replies
Mechanical Systems 1 reply
Systems, Systems and Systems... 1 reply
Profitable trading systems, which are 100% mechanical? 2 replies
100% mechanical systems 12 replies
DislikedI want a system (a single system, not a mix of 2 systems) that's profitable in trending as well as ranging market in all timeframes larger than m30, backtest proven in last 10 years at least.
Let's search till the end of the world. Good luck to me lol.Ignored
DislikedIn fact, I managed to come up with something that works for me:
In backtests, it generates 10,000 pips on GBP/USD, GBP/JPY, and USD/JPY combined in one year. It has a winning % of ~70% and a Reward to Risk ratio of 5:3 with a 15% max drawdown. It is about 90% mechanical.Ignored
DislikedWow, 10,000 pips in a year, 15% drawdown, quite impressive indeed!!
However, are you absolutely sure about these results Kharvell? And what about the five preceding years, do you still get 10,000 pips/year average profit in those 3 currency pairs ?
I have personnally never seen such numbers, most mechanical systems almost never exceed 100 pips profit per month per currency pair (1200 pips a year). Please test your system with the 5 preceding years and let us know if your results still hold.
Because if they do, you are not a trader but a psychic my friend, and Soros would love to have a chat with you! ;-)Ignored
DislikedSuppose you have a system that has a 50% drawdown, but appears to generate gains, too. You should always be questioning what caused this drawdown? Is there a filter that would eliminate this drawdown? It's not an easy task, but totally feasible. In fact, I managed to come up with something that works for me:Ignored
DislikedNy,
Ummm...are you sure? let's do the math.
If you go down 1000 pips with 1 mini lot on a $5K account brings you to $4K.
Then you go up 1000 pips with 1 mini lot on your $4K account...that brings you too...ummm...let's see here...$5K...back even.
Unless you're utilizing a % theory...I'm not sure where your math came from.
As far as a drawdown goes, 20% drawdown does seem a bit excessive, especially if it were quick...but I'm not sure 20% is out of the realm of possibility in any system...My 401Ks had a 20% drawdown at one point over the course of 15 years, but it didn't take long to recover from.
a 50% drawdown would have my alarm bells ringing...but you will inevitably have drawdown of some magnitude. Of course, if a single TRADE had you down 20% (unless it were long term), I'd be a little cautious, but through a series of trades, accounts could be hit easily with 10-20% drawdown...I'm not sure that's a horrible thing if the average upswing move is more than size of the 20% downswing, right?
I would have to believe that straight upwards movement (if even gradual) would be an near impossibility...manual OR automated.Ignored
Dislikedif using a % based money management, (which is normally) then if u lose say 70%.. u need 340% to break even. and even if not using %MM, your leverage might not allow u to make it back as quick as u lost it.Ignored
DislikedThat system has insane drawdowns. I think the thread starter asked for something with a bit smother equity curve.
You see, you cant just count the pips without taking into consideration what kind of draw downs you get. If you have a 50% drawdown, you have to make a 100% to just break even. This is why all these "My system makes x amount of pips a month" systems wont get you rich.Ignored
DislikedWow, 10,000 pips in a year, 15% drawdown, quite impressive indeed!!
However, are you absolutely sure about these results Kharvell? And what about the five preceding years, do you still get 10,000 pips/year average profit in those 3 currency pairs ?
I have personnally never seen such numbers, most mechanical systems almost never exceed 100 pips profit per month per currency pair (1200 pips a year). Please test your system with the 5 preceding years and let us know if your results still hold.
Because if they do, you are not a trader but a psychic my friend, and Soros would love to have a chat with you! ;-)Ignored
DislikedThose numbers are quite possible, in our opinion. In February, we gained 3625 pips by trading 6 currencies with a 100% mechanical trading system and this system yields 2000 pips on average per month for about 2 years. Therefore, 10,000 pips/year average with 3 currency is quite achievable.Ignored
Disliked
A pure mechanical system that exceeds 270 pips a month (like in your case) profit in a 5 year backtest (without any pyramiding and per lot per currency pair) WITHOUT EXPOSING THE TRADER TO HUGE RISK (like the Firebird system) simply does NOT exist, and I challenge every one in this forum to prove otherwise.Ignored
Dislikedwhy would i care about the number of trades if that system is profitable over 5 years?Ignored
DislikedA pure mechanical system that exceeds 270 pips a month (like in your case) profit in a 5 year backtest (without any pyramiding and per lot per currency pair) WITHOUT EXPOSING THE TRADER TO HUGE RISK (like the Firebird system) simply does NOT exist, and I challenge every one in this forum to prove otherwise.Ignored
DislikedI think 5 years in the forex market is actually too large a subset of time.Ignored
DislikedI think results would be skewed just because of the fluctuations of the world.Ignored
DislikedI mean, think, 5 years ago, a lot has changed since, and the dynamics of the market are much different than they were even 5 years ago.Ignored
DislikedI think it's entirely possible, that a great system that works today could very well be obsolete in a year or 2.Ignored
DislikedTerminator,
You may call this realism, but I call this pessimism. Instead of arguing with you that it is not only possible, but also I have done it, I will let you watch my trades in my thread in Journal Factory Enjoy being proved wrong, my friend. Oh, and just so you know, February was a 1000 pip month for me; kind of making your above statement false.
Regards,
Kevin
P.S. My apologies if this post seems a bit rude. Just tired of people doubting things are possible WHEN THEY HAVE BEEN DONE BEFORE; i.e. George Soros, Bruce Kovner, Richard Dennis, Ed Seykota (who simply has a program make all his trades everyday) and many more.. Read any of the Market Wizards Series by Schwager.Ignored
DislikedBut remember, it must be a totally mechanical system with clear-cut trading rules and pre-determined stop/limit. In other words, 100 traders trading your system should be able to open/close positions at exactly the same price.Ignored