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The Fractal Approach to S+R

  • #21
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:20am Nov 26, 2008 11:20am
Hi, Thanks for reading.
I actually trade anything that sets up but do tend to stay away from the crosses as I've been bitten by them too many times
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #22
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:27am Nov 26, 2008 11:27am
I do find this approach to be a bit streaky. I am more of an ROI trader than win rate and seeing as I use a 50 pip stop and profits usually run over 100 I can handle it but I do realize the psychological implications of a low win rate and this definitely isn't for everyone.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #23
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:29am Nov 26, 2008 11:29am
Quoting ChowClown
Oedipus,

Many thanks for opening yet another interesting thread. A very neat application of s/r trading.

Which pair(s) do you devote most attention to these days?

BR
I will trade gbp/jpy though as the ROI is usually so good.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #24
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:40am Nov 26, 2008 11:40am
I also use this as a filter for dibs trades.
If price misses my entry by a couple of pips (which happens and is really infuriating, by the way) I'll look for IB's for entry.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #25
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:53am Nov 26, 2008 11:53am
I have one I took on cable today. It's looking a bit iffy right now but still holding.
You can see the overlap between weekly R1 and last weeks frac
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 1.gif Size: 26 KB
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #26
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:55am Nov 26, 2008 11:55am
Then the 50% fib came in but they are a bit far apart. It's nice to have a tighter overlapping confluence.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 2.gif Size: 28 KB
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #27
  • Nov 26, 2008 11:58am Nov 26, 2008 11:58am
Thanks for sharing, this is a very interesting approach.

I am attempting to replicate your charts as first step.

As I understand, this is your workflow:

1) you look at a 4h charts quite at the end of the day (for me, at 5pmEST, for example)looking for setups.

2)you draw the fractals lines, and soon after the start of the new day, say 5.15pm EST, you look at pivots.

QUESTION: all around there are a lot of versions of pivots. Would you please upload the one you are using, or at least its exact name?

3)You are looking for confluence at this stage, and delete the not significant lines. You switch then to 30m chart, apply Fib and look for confluence again.

QUESTION: you are using the standard Fib tool in MT, correct? You are drawing, in the first example, from the bottom of the previous day (we are supposedly doing this at 5.20pm EST) to the top, correct?

4) You are placing the trade. Direction is dictated by the last broken fractal in 4H.

QUESTION: how do you get, step by step, the 127 retracement?

and, finally:

Quoting Oedipus100
I do find this approach to be a bit streaky. I am more of an ROI trader than win rate and seeing as I use a 50 pip stop and profits usually run over 100 I can handle it but I do realize the psychological implications of a low win rate and this definitely isn't for everyone.
What do you mean by low win rate? I do not expect an exhaustive statistic, but about 50%? 60%? 70%?

I really respect any strategy that ran live for 18 months. You must have now some good confidence and knowledge: how many trades you are finding per week?

Thanks for your time!
  • #28
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:08pm Nov 26, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting Triton18
Thanks for sharing, this is a very interesting approach.

I am attempting to replicate your charts as first step.



QUESTION: all around there are a lot of versions of pivots. Would you please upload the one you are using, or at least its exact name?



QUESTION: you are using the standard Fib tool in MT, correct? You are drawing, in the first example, from the bottom of the previous day (we are supposedly doing this at 5.20pm EST) to the top, correct?


QUESTION: how do you get, step by step, the 127 retracement?

and, finally:...
Firstly I'll attach the pivot indicators I use and yes they do vary greatly, I've found these to be the best. I use the advance pivot indicator set to weekly and monthly only on all time frames then I use the daily pivot indicator on just the 30M so I can make not of the dailys without having too many lines.
And also yes I use the standerd MT4 fibs but added in the 127 extension.
I'll go over how I get the 127 profit target next
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 AutoPivotIndicator.ex4   14 KB | 310 downloads
File Type: ex4 Daily Pivot Lines.ex4   16 KB | 293 downloads
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #29
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:14pm Nov 26, 2008 12:14pm
When do the fib from, well, what is at the time the current day's high and low, that is where I get my 127 extension. You need to add it into properties on MT4 it's -0.27 and if you put %$ after it price will come up on your fib lines (cool trick I learned).
So in this example you can see 127 is 0.6698.
I hope this is clear, I've been traing this way for a while as I said (better part of two years) and I might run over things a bit quick, please let me know.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: slide 5 fibs.gif Size: 27 KB
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #30
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:17pm Nov 26, 2008 12:17pm
To be honest it's the streakyness more than win rate. This will go into a 2 week winning stretch where you nail the high for the day on shorts and the low on longs but then it will just stop you out for a week or so. Over the longer term the win rate is good, about 75% but thats over 12 months. Also you get a lot less set up's during the summer. On the whole your looking at an average ROI of 3:1 which is what I'm more concerned with.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #31
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:18pm Nov 26, 2008 12:18pm
Thanks Triton
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #32
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:19pm Nov 26, 2008 12:19pm
Quoting Oedipus100
Then the 50% fib came in but they are a bit far apart. It's nice to have a tighter overlapping confluence.
Great to see today's GU example.

Am i correct in thinking you entered manually? On my chart a pending order last night would have been filled and stopped out at -50....but looking OK now if the entry was made later when price was below the level.
  • #33
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:31pm Nov 26, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting ChowClown
Great to see today's GU example.

Am i correct in thinking you entered manually? On my chart a pending order last night would have been filled and stopped out at -50....but looking OK now if the entry was made later when price was below the level.
I actually had a 100 pip stop on this one. I didn't want to go into it at the beginning but as my entry was at the 50% fib at 5257 and the 127 was so far away 5680, giving me a 4:1 ROI even with a 100 pip stop that was what I used. I wouldn't recommend it in the beginning as if you get into a bad streak with those size stops it will really pee in your cheerios.
And I did place the limit order at 7.00am GMT.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #34
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:36pm Nov 26, 2008 12:36pm
Don't get me wrong 1% is 1% but I get the feeling from a lot of the posts on this forum that people may not be sticking to the most important rule quite as religiously as they should.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #35
  • Nov 26, 2008 12:45pm Nov 26, 2008 12:45pm
Quoting Oedipus100
I actually had a 100 pip stop on this one. I didn't want to go into it at the beginning but as my entry was at the 50% fib at 5257 and the 127 was so far away 5680, giving me a 4:1 ROI even with a 100 pip stop that was what I used. I wouldn't recommend it in the beginning as if you get into a bad streak with those size stops it will really pee in your cheerios.
And I did place the limit order at 7.00am GMT.
yes, 50 pips gets swallowed up too easily these days.
  • #36
  • Nov 26, 2008 1:09pm Nov 26, 2008 1:09pm
Another way to manage this trade is to flip to the 15M chart and move your stop when long to the bottom of any 15M fractals that appear. You must be sure the fractal has appeared as MT4 will print it before it's really supposed to be there. Once the 5th candle in the series has been formed you are safe to move your stop.
I should have done this earlier on the cable trade but I was asleep, I'll do it now if the fractal does form, we have about 5 minutes as I write this.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #37
  • Nov 26, 2008 2:04pm Nov 26, 2008 2:04pm
My approach made for a nice entry into a dibs trade today. I have an indicator from the no free lunch continued thread which paints inside bar blue.
This is the 1H chart and you can see the dibs trade is almost at free trade by their rules. I didn't take this trade and don't use inside bars often but it's something I've been looking at for some time.
Any thoughts much appreciated.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable 3.gif Size: 28 KB
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #38
  • Nov 27, 2008 12:22pm Nov 27, 2008 12:22pm
Hi Oedipus,

What's your take on EU long atm, with the DIBS filter?...just need a sanity check on whether the long side is in play given swissy signalling the same direction.....been thinking about 'flow' alot today

Have a great thxgiving.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 271108(1).gif Size: 15 KB
  • #39
  • Nov 27, 2008 1:41pm Nov 27, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting ChowClown
Hi Oedipus,

What's your take on EU long atm, with the DIBS filter?...just need a sanity check on whether the long side is in play given swissy signalling the same direction.....been thinking about 'flow' alot today

Have a great thxgiving.
Yes today is confusing. When I have market flow up on both swiss and euro it seems like a good day to just eat turkey. I came up with an area of support that looked stronger on swiss last night. I just posted the charts on the no free lunch cont'd board but I'll post them again here. There was a nice IB on swiss too which was needed as the area of support was spread out a bit.
First is the 4h and how I figured it last night and second is the 1h showing the IB, thanks for the questions Chow.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4h swiss.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h swiss.gif Size: 34 KB
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
  • #40
  • Nov 27, 2008 1:45pm Nov 27, 2008 1:45pm
When I say I didn't trade I should say I place the buy limit but cancelled it when I woke up and saw it missed and dumped the idea in favor of turkey day.
Sincere and humble thanks, If.
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