EUR: ECB Will not raise Interest Rates on Thursday | Forex Factory

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EUR: ECB Will not raise Interest Rates on Thursday

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 7, 2007 12:31pm Mar 7, 2007 12:31pm
EUR: ECB Will not raise Interest Rates on Thursday
  • #2
  • Mar 7, 2007 12:48pm Mar 7, 2007 12:48pm
Quoting katzenhai2
EUR: ECB Will not raise Interest Rates on Thursday
Source?
  • #3
  • Edited 3:26pm Mar 7, 2007 2:47pm | Edited 3:26pm
Quoting cesarnc
Source?
The Future.

Its regarding this thread here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=19848

But this time it was a grouped work, so it can't be credited to me alone.
This thread can be for talking about the interest rate statement in general, so... don't feel disturbed by myself. And I'm not sure what it really means if the Internet rate Statement is not raised. I trade more technical and have not really a clue whats all about economic news and how the market will react on them.

So would someone have an edge if he knew beforehand the interest rate would not be raised, opposed to what is expected? How would the market react on something like that?
  • #4
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:06pm Mar 7, 2007 5:06pm
Quoting katzenhai2
The Future.

Its regarding this thread here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=19848

But this time it was a grouped work, so it can't be credited to me alone.
This thread can be for talking about the interest rate statement in general, so... don't feel disturbed by myself. And I'm not sure what it really means if the Internet rate Statement is not raised. I trade more technical and have not really a clue whats all about economic news and how the market will react on them.

So would someone have an edge if he knew beforehand the interest rate would not be raised, opposed to what is expected? How would the market react on something like that?
Anything that deviates from the expected has the potential to move the market. So, yes if rates were widely expected to be hiked, and they weren't
you could see a large move. As for Clarvoyance to predict the outcome, I'm not so sure..... Good luck to you and I guess we'll see if you have a gift at 12.00GMT tomorrow!
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:15pm Mar 7, 2007 5:15pm
Even if they do raise rates as intended, I would expect to see a little action. I've seen it before, but also of note: last month, rates were left unchanged as expected, with not so much as a peep in the EUR markets.
  • #6
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:25pm Mar 7, 2007 6:25pm
Large move or not, but in which direction?
That was not determined yet.
  • #7
  • Mar 8, 2007 6:55am Mar 8, 2007 6:55am
Wrong prediction, they raised it. Ouch.
  • #8
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:12am Mar 8, 2007 7:12am
Chuckle
  • #9
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:38am Mar 8, 2007 7:38am
What is important is the press conference:

Quote
INSIGHT TO ECB PRESS CONFERENCE SCHEDULED TO START AT 8:30AM ET
- European Dealer notes the following:
- Key phrases to watch for in Mr Trichet press conference speak today are "accomodative" and "2008 inflation forecast".
- Notes that Combination of accomodative and increase in 2008 inflation forecast, the most bullish for eur/usd, as will result in increased tightening getting priced in quite quickly.
- Most bearish is dropping of "rates remain accomodative" mantra and benign 2008 forecast.
  • #10
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:48am Mar 8, 2007 7:48am
ECB is hawkish, and is absorbed immediately.

EURUSD seems like to go down but is immediately repulsed by hawkish statements.
Support at 1.3140s

Quote
ECB'S TRICHET: POLICY IS ACCOMODATIVE AND KEY ECB RATES ARE MODERATE
- Rate increase will help anchor price expectations
- Liquidity remains ample
- ECB is to monitor price risks closely
- ECB will act in a firm and timely manner to ensure price tability
- Sees ongoing robust growth, the expansion is sustained and broad-based
- Business investment is likely to remain dynamic
- Domestic demand is expected to maintain momentum
- ECB staff sees growth between 1.9 - 2.9% in 2007 versus previous forecat of 1.7 - 2.7%
- Sees 2008 gorwth between 1.9% - 2.9% versus 1.8 - 2.8% previously
- CPI is seen between 2.1% and 2.9% versus 1.5% - 2.5% in Dec.
- Risks are broadly balanced in shorter term for growth but on the downside in the longer term
- Inflation will likely fall in spring and summer and rise after summer
- Euro-zone inflation outlook is still subject to upside risks including risks from energy prices, indirect taxes and wage developments
  • #11
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:49am Mar 8, 2007 7:49am
So much for Clairvoyance.....The ECB as much as said it out loud, rates were gonna be moved.

I give you an A+ for sticking your neck out and taking a stand, and an F for your "system".

Though good luck with it.
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #12
  • Mar 8, 2007 7:59am Mar 8, 2007 7:59am
1st attempt to break through...

Watch the Q&A portion.. trichet must have said something dovish or what..
  • #13
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:08am Mar 8, 2007 8:08am
whipsawing between Fibs and Pivot points.... between 3175 and 3136 as I see it from my fib lines, though cci is bearish 15m - 1h
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #14
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:09am Mar 8, 2007 8:09am
3136 support just gave way......for now
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #15
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:11am Mar 8, 2007 8:11am
my apologies....3139 was a fib support....as I see it
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #16
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:15am Mar 8, 2007 8:15am
May test 3117
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #17
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:21am Mar 8, 2007 8:21am
Quoting FxJarhead
So much for Clairvoyance.....The ECB as much as said it out loud, rates were gonna be moved.

I give you an A+ for sticking your neck out and taking a stand, and an F for your "system".

Though good luck with it.
What do you want a telegraphed note? The ECB is NOT in the game of surprising the market. They know long before what they want to do, be the right decision or not, and they make sure the market knows. The MPC (BoE) may suprise the market once in a while but not the ECB.

I think you should evaluate whatever thought process led you to this conclusion.

The eurusd rate is softer after the hike. Buy the rumor sell the news. It's the most usefull saying you'll ever come across.
  • #18
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:21am Mar 8, 2007 8:21am
3117 hit and tested 921am edt
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
  • #19
  • Mar 8, 2007 8:53am Mar 8, 2007 8:53am
I exited too early @ 3137... I regret to have done that.
  • #20
  • Last Post: Mar 8, 2007 9:24am Mar 8, 2007 9:24am
Quoting BurgerKing
I exited too early @ 3137... I regret to have done that.
Hi BK,

I only entered on the break of 3139....maybe you sold to me!!! LOL
With the way it was whippsawing....I waited til the cci went negative, and the fib broke..... sounds as though you were on the right side, all you can ask for, and that you were prepared....we also will live to battle/work another day, eh??

Good luck out there.
Proper Prior Planning Prevents Piss Poor Performance
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