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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #1,041
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:47am Mar 7, 2007 8:47am
Quoting superdezign
thats a good way to lose pips, its basically guessing.. i mean im short currently as well, but to use that as the basis behind your trade is not to smart buddy..
what u mean? theres one million of strategys that u can use to trade, im using one that i know that works, u mean that its bad just cuz im using pure technicals? cuz im just a technical swing trader and my strategy works very good, its not based on accuracy anyway , i just got 50% accuracy, but when i loss is just a little and when i won the profit can be very large... thats my strategy. is a medium term one based on my indicators.
the 50-100 pips thing is just a guess of when my indicators would change to long, im not doing anything based on thinking, just on my indicators
  • #1,042
  • Edited 9:25am Mar 7, 2007 9:25am | Edited 9:25am
Quoting mcmep11
Originally Posted by im7i4z http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Since I added standard deviation to my template, stopped trading all lame pairs like E/U, U/C, G/U etc (and stopped guessing the market)... and moved down to 30 mins chart... GBPJPY is boring me with profits.
Hey can you guys explain your standard devaition setup?
thanks
Here is a chart I made showing some Standard Deviation indicators.
For those who don't know, basically St Dev is a measure of volatility. ie: trend or flat- how much is your data deviating from past data. Here's a link with lots of std dev info. http://www.trade10.com/standard_deviati.htm
On my chart I show 3 standard deviation indicators: Bollinger bands ( the most widely used),which narrow as volatility decreases and widen as price starts to deviate from past behavior; a Standard Deviation Line indicator in the bottom pane,which is like one side of a bollinger band but does not indicate DIRECTION of trend so it can be a bit confusing, and a custom MT4 indicator which creates a channel based on st. dev.
I'll let someone else tell you how to trade with these, but for now just take a look at how they react to price.
Hope this helps a bit!
Cheers,
Taters
Attached Image
  • #1,043
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:26am Mar 7, 2007 9:26am
there we go, my indicators changed to long again
a no trend market inst that great for my strategy anyway. but im happy this way, everyone is beting on a long at least at 38.2% fibo.
  • #1,044
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:36am Mar 7, 2007 9:36am
Quoting hazz
there we go, my indicators changed to long again
a no trend market inst that great for my strategy anyway. but im happy this way, everyone is beting on a long at least at 38.2% fibo.
Hazz, what is the price at 38.2% fibo you said ?
  • #1,045
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:43am Mar 7, 2007 9:43am
227.58
or 117.63 for U/J
  • #1,046
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:49am Mar 7, 2007 9:49am
Quoting hazz
227.58
or 117.63 for U/J
hazz, thanks, but this market is hard to work with now.
It don't go far, just always comes back, maybe it is forming a good support for the future. Even just to follow the market is not easy to do, but I have lost some pips last night. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
  • #1,047
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:55am Mar 7, 2007 9:55am
Quoting trader8686
hazz, thanks, but this market is hard to work with now.
It don't go far, just always comes back, maybe it is forming a good support for the future. Even just to follow the market is not easy to do, but I have lost some pips last night. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon8.gif
yeah this week is a little crazy. i miss half of the rally of sunday and when i was with 260 pips the market just retrace and i lost it all (its part of my strategy anyway), then i was with a long since yesterday and i was with around +150 pips and the market just retrace again and eat everything. my indicators arent very good for fast moving like the ones that we got this week , but its unsual anyway so i dont worry, anyway today im losing around 80 already , so im at -120 this week atm. but i will finish k yet i think.just need a true trend to follow,hehe
  • #1,048
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:58am Mar 7, 2007 9:58am
I would not assume what direction this pair is going to go.

It depends on both cable and UJ. At present UJ is rising but cable is falling. It is questionable whether GBP/JPY can sustain a move up in the presence of a strong move down by cable. Honestly, I doubt that that is possible unless cable turns upward.
  • #1,049
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:49am Mar 7, 2007 10:49am
Quoting Taters
Here is a chart I made showing some Standard Deviation indicators.
For those who don't know, basically St Dev is a measure of volatility. ie: trend or flat- how much is your data deviating from past data. Here's a link with lots of std dev info. http://www.trade10.com/standard_deviati.htm
On my chart I show 3 standard deviation indicators: Bollinger bands ( the most widely used),which narrow as volatility decreases and widen as price starts to deviate from past behavior; a Standard Deviation Line indicator in the bottom pane,which is like one side of a bollinger band but does not indicate DIRECTION of trend so it can be a bit confusing, and a custom MT4 indicator which creates a channel based on st. dev.
I'll let someone else tell you how to trade with these, but for now just take a look at how they react to price.
Hope this helps a bit!
Cheers,
Taters




so the solid line is a simple standard deviation on close? and what is the dotted line?


thank you for your response
  • #1,050
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:01am Mar 7, 2007 11:01am
07.03.07 17:59:00- C.E.T.

PARIS (Dow Jones)--The high levels of volatility experienced by global
financial markets over the past two weeks are unlikely to continue, Japan's top
financial diplomat said Wednesday.

Following a sharp fall in Chinese share prices early last week, equity markets
around the world took a tumble, affecting prices of other assets, including oil
and commodities.

However, share markets have stabilized in recent days.

"All in all, markets have behaved well," Hiroshi Watanabe, Vice Finance
Minister for International Affairs, told reporters. "I don't think the crisis
will last."

Watanabe was in France on the final stop of a tour of European capitals to
promote Japanese government bonds.

Concerns about the outlook for the U.S. economy after some surprisingly weak
data contributed to the sell-off.

"I don't think that was an important perturbation," Watanabe said. "Each
country had different reasons. There was a certain uneasiness on the outlook
for the future."
  • #1,051
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:19am Mar 7, 2007 11:19am
  •  Trader#0000
  • | Status: Unregistered Trader
Looks like you can just go with the trend as soon as volatility picks up.
  • #1,052
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:28am Mar 7, 2007 11:28am
Well...I don't think any indicator would give 100 percent results all the time.

I lost a big one today due to AUS. data, all looked fine and the pair was up 100 PIPS and then came down 200 PIPS..it does not happen quite often but sometimes the best trades go against your way. well, i have it all covered up due to last week rally so no worries.

and looks like its flirting right now, and refusing to go down further, so i guess, we could expect a big up tommarow and cover the loss

Good Luck
  • #1,053
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:59am Mar 7, 2007 11:59am
Quoting mcmep11
so the solid line is a simple standard deviation on close? and what is the dotted line?
thank you for your response
The indicator is showing a 20 period moving average of the standard deviation of close price, and the dotted line is a moving average of that average to give a quick visual representation of whether volatility is moving up or down ( like a signal line on a MACD).
  • #1,054
  • Mar 7, 2007 3:03pm Mar 7, 2007 3:03pm
Where is the beast going? ITs in a stupid little box and wont come out. bid> 225.10 buy....bid<224.10 sell. ?
  • #1,055
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:05pm Mar 7, 2007 5:05pm
Wow! That was a quick 58 pips.
  • #1,056
  • Mar 7, 2007 5:41pm Mar 7, 2007 5:41pm
Quoting Barry Huddlesto
Wow! That was a quick 58 pips.
You should not have come out yet, could have gotten 100. I just put on the 30pip trailing stop. I am gone for dinner
  • #1,057
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:03pm Mar 7, 2007 6:03pm
I was never short. I was reading about standard deviations when the move started. I waited untill it went past the 3 SD on BB when went long (2 lots) that's how I picked up the +58. Now I'm long at 223.00 and just closed that. I'll wait now untill it goes to 2 SD and maybe go long again. Lot's of luck.
  • #1,058
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:31pm Mar 7, 2007 6:31pm
Did anybody come long with me at 223.00? It just hit my 223.50 limit for +100. Did you see the signal to go long? Now we'll have to wait.
  • #1,059
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:38pm Mar 7, 2007 6:38pm
Quoting Barry Huddlesto
Did anybody come long with me at 223.00? It just hit my 223.50 limit for +100. Did you see the signal to go long? Now we'll have to wait.
Watch out for the two support/now resistance lines at 222.40 and 223.70, we could see futher move down as they were important support levels that were broken. Good luck!
Attached Image
  • #1,060
  • Mar 7, 2007 6:50pm Mar 7, 2007 6:50pm
Zado,how did you be able to strech your 15M chart to that size to draw add the fibo, are you using any kind of application... please help
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