100% mechanical trading systems | Forex Factory

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100% mechanical trading systems

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 7, 2007 8:12am Mar 7, 2007 8:12am
I'm looking for links to 100% mechanical trading systems with mechanical money management. Everything - 100% mechanical, where no stupid human brain is needed.

It doesn't have to make big profits in %-s, but the equity curve should be as steady as possible.

Please add a link to the sites where I could download these systems for free or for a cost. Or just write/descripte here, thanks.

Backtesting results of the systems should be available with the system.

If this working 100% mechanical systems are just a myth, then please let me know and I will stop searching those...
  • #2
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:14am Mar 7, 2007 8:14am
You would be best to do a search on Google.

Quoting EasyComesItGoes
I'm looking for links to 100% mechanical trading systems with mechanical money management. Everything - 100% mechanical, where no stupid human brain is needed.

It doesn't have to make big profits in %-s, but the equity curve should be as steady as possible.

Please add a link to the sites where I could download these systems for free or for a cost. Or just write/descripte here, thanks.

Backtesting results of the systems should be available with the system.

If this working 100% mechanical systems are just a myth, then please let me know and I will stop searching those...
  • #3
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:15am Mar 7, 2007 8:15am
To put links in to web sites of products for sale or as advertising is a violation of FFs anti spam rules.
http://www.forexfactory.com/faq.php?faq=rules#faq_rule3

Please feel free to dsicuss the topic, but no spam or links.
  • #4
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:16am Mar 7, 2007 8:16am
I can tell you right away. There is no such thing as a 100% mechanical trading system.
  • #5
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:22am Mar 7, 2007 8:22am
Not true - check out this link right here on FF

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=12808

Quoting Nybegynner
I can tell you right away. There is no such thing as a 100% mechanical trading system.
Michael fxgorilla
  • #6
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:34am Mar 7, 2007 8:34am
That system has insane drawdowns. I think the thread starter asked for something with a bit smother equity curve.

You see, you cant just count the pips without taking into consideration what kind of draw downs you get. If you have a 50% drawdown, you have to make a 100% to just break even. This is why all these "My system makes x amount of pips a month" systems wont get you rich.
  • #7
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:43am Mar 7, 2007 8:43am
Quoting Nybegynner
That system has insane drawdowns.
I had a look at the spreadsheets with the results in them. Most probably missing something here but I can not see the insane drawdown - can you perhaps point me to them?

Thanks
  • #8
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:46am Mar 7, 2007 8:46am
I want a system (a single system, not a mix of 2 systems) that's profitable in trending as well as ranging market in all timeframes larger than m30, backtest proven in last 10 years at least.
Let's search till the end of the world. Good luck to me lol.
Tra-X
  • #9
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:52am Mar 7, 2007 8:52am
Quote
I had a look at the spreadsheets with the results in them. Most probably missing something here but I can not see the insane drawdown - can you perhaps point me to them?

Thanks


May 4th - May 11th - drawdown = -842 pips

Oct 31st - Nov 17th - drawdown = -920 pips
  • #10
  • Mar 7, 2007 8:55am Mar 7, 2007 8:55am
Quoting Nybegynner
I can tell you right away. There is no such thing as a 100% mechanical trading system.
Breakouts of GBP/USD on the London open seem pretty mechanical and back test very well.
  • #11
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:02am Mar 7, 2007 9:02am
Agree, thats one of the strategies I like best. It's still not 100% mechanical. You have to take into consideration the last days move and so on if you want to be really profitable.

The thing with such a strategy (and for trading in general) is the fact that it is very easy to know when to enter a trade that has a high probability to be a profitable on, but it's hard to know when to exit.
  • #12
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:03am Mar 7, 2007 9:03am
Quoting Nybegynner
May 4th - May 11th - drawdown = -842 pips

Oct 31st - Nov 17th - drawdown = -920 pips
I saw the other post in the thread as well:
"And some spectacular profits:

June 14th - Jul 3rd -profit = +1112 pips
Jul 14th - Jul 26th - profit = +906 pips
Sep 12th - Oct 4th - profit = +779 pips

We already know this drawdown issue, but it depends on how you look at the system and the risk profile of trader using it. We are not scalpers and most of the systems we use are medium to long term systems. Therefore, we are more interested in monthly figures."

With a win ratio of 52.41% and a total of 5356 pips (446 pm average) you should be able to get somewhere. With proper money management and a risk profile that fits the system you should really be able to do something with this.
  • #13
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:04am Mar 7, 2007 9:04am
Quoting Traex
I want a system (a single system, not a mix of 2 systems) that's profitable in trending as well as ranging market in all timeframes larger than m30, backtest proven in last 10 years at least.
Let's search till the end of the world. Good luck to me lol.
I agree, that there's propably not a single system that's profitable on trending and trading markets.

However, I still have a little hope that there might be a mechanical system (whether trending or trading based) that only takes the trades when the market conditions does fit for the given system. But maybe there isn't even a such thing, I don't know.


PS: Even if the working mechanical system would be a mix of 2 systems as you mentioned it would be great, then it would be actually one system I don't care, mix 10 systems if that works on a long time backtested results with a steady equity curve - that's all I want, a steady equity curve, a system that I can really trust
  • #14
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:05am Mar 7, 2007 9:05am
Sure, but the system still has insane drawdown. You also have to take into consideration that when you are down 1000 pips, you are not break even when you have made a thousand pips back.

If you go down a 1000 pips that is $1000 just on mini lots. That would be 20% drawdown on a 5000 dollar account.
  • #15
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:27am Mar 7, 2007 9:27am
Ny,

Ummm...are you sure? let's do the math.

If you go down 1000 pips with 1 mini lot on a $5K account brings you to $4K.

Then you go up 1000 pips with 1 mini lot on your $4K account...that brings you too...ummm...let's see here...$5K...back even.

Unless you're utilizing a % theory...I'm not sure where your math came from.

As far as a drawdown goes, 20% drawdown does seem a bit excessive, especially if it were quick...but I'm not sure 20% is out of the realm of possibility in any system...My 401Ks had a 20% drawdown at one point over the course of 15 years, but it didn't take long to recover from.

a 50% drawdown would have my alarm bells ringing...but you will inevitably have drawdown of some magnitude. Of course, if a single TRADE had you down 20% (unless it were long term), I'd be a little cautious, but through a series of trades, accounts could be hit easily with 10-20% drawdown...I'm not sure that's a horrible thing if the average upswing move is more than size of the 20% downswing, right?

I would have to believe that straight upwards movement (if even gradual) would be an near impossibility...manual OR automated.

Quoting Nybegynner
Sure, but the system still has insane drawdown. You also have to take into consideration that when you are down 1000 pips, you are not break even when you have made a thousand pips back.

If you go down a 1000 pips that is $1000 just on mini lots. That would be 20% drawdown on a 5000 dollar account.
  • #16
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:29am Mar 7, 2007 9:29am
Quoting marejp
With proper money management and a risk profile that fits the system you should really be able to do something with this.
would you explain how/what is the better money management for this system?
thanks
  • #17
  • Mar 7, 2007 9:33am Mar 7, 2007 9:33am
Quote
Ny,

Ummm...are you sure? let's do the math.

If you go down 1000 pips with 1 mini lot on a $5K account brings you to $4K.

Then you go up 1000 pips with 1 mini lot on your $4K account...that brings you too...ummm...let's see here...$5K...back even.

Unless you're utilizing a % theory...I'm not sure where your math came from.


That is true, but normaly possition size starting from those 4000 dollars would be less than when you startet to lose from 5000.

Say you have a 100 dollars in your account. Then you enter a position with a 2% risk. You lose this postion and you are down to 98 dollars. Now you are entering a new position with 2% risk, and you now have to make more pips than you lost to make it back.
  • #18
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:07am Mar 7, 2007 10:07am
Ny,

Agreed, if you're using %-account positioning, you'd be correct. I was merely pointing out the whole use of mini-lot and the 1000 pip down and back up.

2% risk doesn't necessarily determine your position-size. Make sure you understand that. 2% risk means that you're MAXIMUM LOSS would be 2% of your account. Thus, at 2% risk on a $100, your max loss would be $2. On a $98 account, your max loss would be $1.96. This says nothing about positions, because in both trades instances you may use 2 nano-lots ($0.02 per pip) of the GBPUSD, however, the account that has $100 can withstand a 100 pip loss while the $98 account can only with stand a 98 pip loss...but BOTH positions sizes and pip values were the same.

So remember...%-account risk has nothing to do with position sizing...It's true that they should go hand-in-hand when you're considering your trade-risk...but money management rules about %-account risk are only affected by position-sizing through acceleration to the maximum loss.


Quoting Nybegynner
That is true, but normaly possition size starting from those 4000 dollars would be less than when you startet to lose from 5000.

Say you have a 100 dollars in your account. Then you enter a position with a 2% risk. You lose this postion and you are down to 98 dollars. Now you are entering a new position with 2% risk, and you now have to make more pips than you lost to make it back.
  • #19
  • Mar 7, 2007 10:17am Mar 7, 2007 10:17am
Agree eg stop levels can be diferent and so will position size.
  • #20
  • Mar 7, 2007 11:24am Mar 7, 2007 11:24am
I'd like to find such a system also (100% Mech.) though i feel we could search till they reinstate Pluto as a Planet and still not find such an animal. . . then, i fear, being such an extreme doodler i'd screw it up cuz i would most likely add/subtract something.

So for me, at this point it's finding opportunities related to LondonOpen and/or the Daily Candle H/L & O/C breakouts.

: ) Thom
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