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Higher low, lower high system

  • #341
  • Nov 20, 2008 7:19am Nov 20, 2008 7:19am
OK so where lh/hl's are clear cut and an indicator cannot keep up I'll be looking to trade on normal naked basis. If in any doubt wait for indicators to confirm.

The attached ej chart.

Trade 1. The previous hourly candle was a nice higher close green hammer. A clear hl.

Trade 2. A lh right on the even number. Neither of the stoch had crossed and if you want to sell on an even number you had better be convinced of a strong trend. Look to the left of trade 2, price is higher than the bottom at 118.50 with a couple of hl's in between, thats no longer a clear cut strong downtrend. Probably a no trade.

Trade 3. The trade 2 lh is immediately followed by a hl. Here all 4 indicators agree. If in any doubt all 4 indicators to agree.

Trade 4. All 4 indicators agree.

Trade 5. A clear hl and 3 of the 4 agree. A trade yes but being the 4th hl in the run if it pretty much doesn't kick on soon probably a good idea to get out. Its unlikely I would have waited for a 15-20 pip stop to hit here.

Trade 6. If this was taken it was an immediate loser.

Trade 7. The indicators line up and after all the sideways rubbish the first time a signal has hit and price confirms by pushing further in the direction of the trade.

All in all 7 possible trades in a few hours, 4 winners, 1 loser, 1 BE to small loser, 1 no trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: ej 5 min 2.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #342
  • Nov 21, 2008 4:13am Nov 21, 2008 4:13am
Nice hammers by EUR and GBP
  • #343
  • Nov 21, 2008 10:23pm Nov 21, 2008 10:23pm
Vantage - thank you for your time and effort put into posts 339 and 341. It was good to read your thoughts on each trade - it helped me a lot.
  • #344
  • Nov 22, 2008 12:50am Nov 22, 2008 12:50am
Quoting orientos
Vantage - thank you for your time and effort put into posts 339 and 341. It was good to read your thoughts on each trade - it helped me a lot.
A pleasure.

For what its worth hl's/lh's as per original system are high probability trades. Combined with all 4 indicators lining up has produced almost 100% winning trades this week. The downside has been some trades the 4 indicators are lining up a candle later than naked trading.

For those that are looking for an indicator based system I suspect this is a small price to pay.
  • #345
  • Nov 22, 2008 1:05am Nov 22, 2008 1:05am
Vantage,

Very nice my friend! Ill be spending some time here and I appreciate your complements on my system.

FJ
Stacking pips since 2002
  • #346
  • Nov 22, 2008 9:47am Nov 22, 2008 9:47am
Quoting Vantage
..., and Stoch DiNapoli 5,3,3...
Hi Van,

You've gotten it right in post #1, but I thought it good to highlight the error in that later post, perhaps you can change it or add an edit - maybe Twee could help.

Anyway, going to have a look at the new indi's to see what you've gotten yourself into!

Cheers,

VBro
  • #347
  • Nov 22, 2008 9:49am Nov 22, 2008 9:49am
Quoting Vantage
..., and Stoch DiNapoli 5,3,3...
Hi Van,

You've gotten it right in post #1, but post #334 has the error noted above (assuming it is an error), perhaps you can change it or add an edit - maybe Twee could help.

Anyway, going to have a look at the new indi's to see what you've gotten yourself into!

Cheers,

VBro
  • #348
  • Nov 23, 2008 10:24pm Nov 23, 2008 10:24pm
Quoting vbro
Hi Van,

You've gotten it right in post #1, but post #334 has the error noted above (assuming it is an error), perhaps you can change it or add an edit - maybe Twee could help.

Anyway, going to have a look at the new indi's to see what you've gotten yourself into!

Cheers,

VBro
Ooooops you and post 1 are correct Di Napoli stoch 8,3,3, sorry for the typo. Unfortunately I can't go back and correct post 334 its too long ago.
Cheers Vbro thanks for spotting.
  • #349
  • Nov 23, 2008 10:28pm Nov 23, 2008 10:28pm
Have a look at forexjedi's offer http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...120606&page=93 post 1391 page 93 this is definitely an offer that is worth taking up.
Cheers, nice one jedi.
  • #350
  • Nov 24, 2008 2:24am Nov 24, 2008 2:24am
Morning, Vantage

Do you think the 5,3,3 sto might be superfluous ? I'm getting the impression that it always confirms. 'Will keep observing, as I do like the idea of using this to scalp when there are no KTM trades on the (near-) horizon and/or for counter-trend trades.
  • #351
  • Edited 5:01am Nov 24, 2008 2:58am | Edited 5:01am
Quoting jtrade
Morning, Vantage

Do you think the 5,3,3 sto might be superfluous ? I'm getting the impression that it always confirms. 'Will keep observing, as I do like the idea of using this to scalp when there are no KTM trades on the (near-) horizon and/or for counter-trend trades.
There have definitely been trades where sto 5 3 3 saved the day, just as there have been trades where a late cross kept you out of a winning trade.

Looking over stats for Fri, I see some 35 trades on the 3 currencies waiting for all 4 indicators to confirm. 6 losers and 4 BE trades (BE is where you have had a chance at good profit 15 pips plus and comes back). 3 eurjpy trades needed 30 pip stops incl spread. Thats a good winning %.

Anyway the basis of the system will always be hl/lh's and I'll play around with the indicators. One possible option may be to have macd below waterline and red with rsi below 50 for a sell with a lh.

Macd above waterline and green with rsi above 50 for a buy with a hl.

That would eliminate sells where macd red but above waterline and buys where macd green but below waterline.

I don't want every trade but it would be great to have a 75% winning system that will typically give 20 pip plus winners whilst keeping losers lower.

My current set ups as trades are:

  1. Following previous 1 hr candle clear hl/lh as per original system
  2. All 4 indicators agreeing (if action has been a little sideways or those times when there has been both a hl/lh recently or contrary to previous hourly candle)
  3. Where hl'lh missed on 5 min go to 1 min, 34 good angle up with hl for buy, 34 ema good angle down sell

  • #352
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:05am Nov 24, 2008 3:05am
Thanks, V... back goes the sto....

So many trading mentors / courses etc emphasize the importance of not concentrating on winning %, but "I gotta tell ya...", if you find a method that consistently produces 70%+ winners (and we seem to), it's about as close to the HG as you can get...
  • #353
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:29am Nov 24, 2008 3:29am
From your opening post :
Quote
As a final confirmation I often wait for price to go beyond the high/low of the 5 min candle that confirmed the trade.

Vantage - are you still waiting for the 5 min candle to close before entering ? I tend not to wait, but sometimes get left with a losing trade that looks very obvious after the fact... I'm clear that increasing the win % is highly desirable (as it allows more aggressive money management).
  • #354
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:42am Nov 24, 2008 3:42am
Quoting jtrade
Thanks, V... back goes the sto....

So many trading mentors / courses etc emphasize the importance of not concentrating on winning %, but "I gotta tell ya...", if you find a method that consistently produces 70%+ winners (and we seem to), it's about as close to the HG as you can get...
Heres a trade from earlier.

I know forexjedi took this one earlier on his force 5 systems signal.

Here is the perfect lh. Stoch and Di Nap had turned lower but not crossed. Macd below waterline and red and rsi below 50 so I was happy with a sell. I was looking at jpy at the same time with same set up chose eur.

If you feel hl/lh clear go for it, if in doubt look for indicators to confirm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #355
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:46am Nov 24, 2008 3:46am
Quoting jtrade
From your opening post :


Vantage - are you still waiting for the 5 min candle to close before entering ? I tend not to wait, but sometimes get left with a losing trade that looks very obvious after the fact... I'm clear that increasing the win % is highly desirable (as it allows more aggressive money management).
Yes, 5 min I wait for candle to close. If 5 min candle runs too far and I don't want to do the 1 pip below or if the wick is looking a bit large I'll look to 1 min lh's/hl's with same trade set up but with a good angle up/down on 34 ema.
  • #356
  • Nov 24, 2008 3:51am Nov 24, 2008 3:51am
Quoting jtrade
So many trading mentors / courses etc emphasize the importance of not concentrating on winning %, but "I gotta tell ya...", if you find a method that consistently produces 70%+ winners (and we seem to), it's about as close to the HG as you can get...
If your system has low pip losers and massive winners then you can get away with much smaller winning %, it could be below 50% easily. If your system has typical winners 20-30 pips and the odd outta the park 40 pip plus with your typical losers of 15-20 then to make ggod return you'll need a higher winning %.
  • #357
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:02am Nov 27, 2008 4:02am
I like this thread and want to see it higher and activ. Here one nice trade from today:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 41 KB
  • #358
  • Nov 27, 2008 4:36am Nov 27, 2008 4:36am
Quoting Happy68
I like this thread and want to see it higher and activ. Here one nice trade from today:
Nice trade.

I've had enough of both of my brokers and have opened a new account and moving funds. We should be back on track Monday.
  • #359
  • Nov 27, 2008 7:45am Nov 27, 2008 7:45am
I like the hammers . Thank you, Van!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1.gif Size: 43 KB
  • #360
  • Nov 27, 2008 9:24am Nov 27, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Happy68
I like the hammers . Thank you, Van!
An absolute pleasure.

Well done another great example.

I'm really hoping to be up and running very soon, apart from changing accounts I'm also taking the chance to upgrade my wireless internet connections. Just got back from the shops with that stuff. Just about to delete all the previous software and I'm assured the new wireless modum is much quicker and just a plug in and play. Apparently my technologically challenged status should not have a problem!!

Anyway keep up the great trades.
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