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4H 5EMA System

  • #1,421
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:18pm Nov 22, 2008 7:18pm
Quoting tonirai
Sterling was quoting me in that answer, and my doubt had nothing to do with what you're saying above (but anyway, you're right).


The question piptrees first posted (in which I disagreed with his & Sterling's view - and in which piptrees already agreed with my view) was if on Sunday openning, we would re-enter the previous short while gap is below the red line, and enter long if it is above it, on the chart he presented;

My view is that the last bar on the chart is a setup bar for a long, therefore we imagine our stoploss and buy stop on...
Well the market closed at 1.4922 so im not sure whats up with your chart. Is that where your chart closed for the weekend? The room uses Alpari as a standard so as not to confuse people, check out an Alpari chart and youll see what I was talking about. The second to last bar is the current setup bar to go long. So if market opens above 1.4939 we will enter long. Anything below that we will re-enter the short with the stop at 1.4939 and have a buy stop in the same location. Read post #1397 also I think you might have overlooked this post?

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,422
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:28pm Nov 22, 2008 7:28pm
Quoting stersuhr
Well the market closed at 1.4922 so im not sure whats up with your chart. Is that where your chart closed for the weekend? The room uses Alpari as a standard so as not to confuse people, check out an Alpari chart and youll see what I was talking about. The second to last bar is the current setup bar to go long. So if market opens above 1.4939 we will enter long. Anything below that we will re-enter the short with the stop at 1.4939 and have a buy stop in the same location.

-Sterling
No no, Sterling, it's not a question from me
You answer so many questions everyday, that I understand you can't remember every context

That chart is from piptrees; he presented it to you, and asked if he should re-enter short on Sunday while below the red line, and long if above it - you answered yes;

I said that the last bar on it is a setup for a long, therefore it's high is the new point of reverse for Sunday's entry... roughly around the green line, not the red.

Do you understand what I mean?
  • #1,423
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:31pm Nov 22, 2008 7:31pm
Let me add that the market wasn't even closed yet, when he posted the question - it was an hypothetical question (like if the market was closing at the moment).
  • #1,424
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:36pm Nov 22, 2008 7:36pm
Quoting tonirai
No no, Sterling, it's not a question from me
You answer so many questions everyday, that I understand you can't remember every context

That chart is from piptrees; he presented it to you, and asked if he should re-enter short on Sunday while below the red line, and long if above it - you answered yes;

I said that the last bar on it is a setup for a long, therefore it's high is the new point of reverse for Sunday's entry... roughly around the green line, not the red.

Do you understand what I mean?
Oh i see. Yeah I was confused. If I answered that the last bar wasent a setup bar to go long I dont know what I was thinking. In that chart that he posted the last bar was a setup bar, so if market would have closed there that would be the setup bar for Sunday night. So if market opened above it you would buy, but if it opened below it you would re-enter the sell. Hope I didnt confuse anyone with what I said, I dont remember the post.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,425
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:46pm Nov 22, 2008 7:46pm
Quoting stersuhr
Oh i see. Yeah I was confused. If I answered that the last bar wasent a setup bar to go long I dont know what I was thinking. In that chart that he posted the last bar was a setup bar, so if market would have closed there that would be the setup bar for Sunday night. So if market opened above it you would buy, but if it opened below it you would re-enter the sell. Hope I didnt confuse anyone with what I said, I dont remember the post.

-Sterling
I think you didn't refer anything, just answered he was right.
Nevermind, I made him see it - and hope nobody else had this doubt.

If you'd like to review where it was posted:
His question http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2368145&postcount=1380
your answer http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2368534&postcount=1389

Note:
The reason I "argued" your views was just because "I knew" you had seen something wrong, and you were answering "he was absolutely right" - and this could be misleading to others.
Just doing my part
  • #1,426
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:50pm Nov 22, 2008 7:50pm
Quoting tonirai
I think you didn't refer anything, just answered he was right.
Nevermind, I made him see it - and hope nobody else had this doubt.

If you'd like to review where it was posted:
His question http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2368145&postcount=1380
your answer http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2368534&postcount=1389

Note:
The reason I "argued" your views was just because "I knew" you had seen something wrong, and you were answering "he was absolutely right" - and this could be misleading to others.
Just...
Yeah thanks for that I appreciate it. Sometimes I answer questions fast when im trading in the morning and must have overlooked something.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,427
  • Nov 22, 2008 7:54pm Nov 22, 2008 7:54pm
From the looks of it I probably meant the green line not red line. I think I just read it wrong.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,428
  • Nov 22, 2008 10:07pm Nov 22, 2008 10:07pm
Quoting ziko123
but what is the criteria that will make you decide that the system no longer work for gbp, is it 2 successive 1000 pips loss months for example ?

Dude do you really just try to down a system that makes money?? Every post that you make is talking crap about how this system is traded, if you do not like this system then make your own. If you are not confident in this system FEEL FREE not to post about it. If you would like to post something up building that is cool. I just really hope that no one on this tread is listening to any thing that you have to say seriously. I do not know you in person so i really do not have any thing to say about you it is just your post that you leave. I am getting sick of every time i catch up on the tread after not reading it for one or two days and i have to filter your post when all you are doing is bitching and arguing about how this system is traded. With that i ask that every one how follows this tread to not be discouraged by what he has to say, when he posts just ignore it.
  • #1,429
  • Nov 22, 2008 11:14pm Nov 22, 2008 11:14pm
I'm a bit confused. Ziko posted an EA and Sterling posted possitive about it, now Hiranya is diss'n ziko for diss'n the strat. If ziko wrote the EA then ziko should know this strat is designed to trade G/U only, yet still we hear it should not be used yet because it doesn't work on other pairs.

Sterling - is this EA the EA, or is it just a good bit of programing offered up by Ziko?

Ziko - I ran a test starting 01/01/08 to present and returned about 2000 pips (assuming the setting at Lots=.1 means it's trading a buck a pip). I did not save the test, just went right into a retest in visiual mode witch will finish by tomorrow I hope (I'll post when done). 2000 in 10 + months pips is less than 500 pips a month. Without combing the tread for the exact figures I believe this system should return about 500 a month on average. Is back testings reliability that bad? Could the absents of the 50% rule cause that much of a difference in return?

Thanks again for all the work put into this by everyone!
  • #1,430
  • Nov 22, 2008 11:36pm Nov 22, 2008 11:36pm
Quoting PowerBySol
I'm a bit confused. Ziko posted an EA and Sterling posted possitive about it, now Hiranya is diss'n ziko for diss'n the strat. If ziko wrote the EA then ziko should know this strat is designed to trade G/U only, yet still we hear it should not be used yet because it doesn't work on other pairs.

Sterling - is this EA the EA, or is it just a good bit of programing offered up by Ziko?

Ziko - I ran a test starting 01/01/08 to present and returned about 2000 pips (assuming the setting at Lots=.1 means it's trading a buck a pip). I did not...
EA's NEVER backtest 100% accurate. If you backtest manually you will see that they dont. This system allows you the chance to backtest with 100% accuracy. I dont really like EA's but for testing purposes they have there advantages. As far as this being "the EA" well I donno yet. I wasent aware he was making one. I thanked him for this. As far as Eric's and Ziko's little argument goes I dont really care. Im cool with Ziko. I do see erics point but as I said im cool with Ziko. I even PM'd him and said sorry if any of my post were offensive. All I ask is that if you guys want to bicker take it to PM's, otherwise lets continue to progress. Ill put the EA on the 5M come tomorrow and see how it preforms the system. Ill keep everyone informed.

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,431
  • Nov 22, 2008 11:39pm Nov 22, 2008 11:39pm
Quoting PowerBySol
I'm a bit confused. Ziko posted an EA and Sterling posted possitive about it, now Hiranya is diss'n ziko for diss'n the strat. If ziko wrote the EA then ziko should know this strat is designed to trade G/U only, yet still we hear it should not be used yet because it doesn't work on other pairs.

Sterling - is this EA the EA, or is it just a good bit of programing offered up by Ziko?

Ziko - I ran a test starting 01/01/08 to present and returned about 2000 pips (assuming the setting at Lots=.1 means it's trading a buck a pip). I did not...
The only reason that i am diss'n ziko's post is for the simple fact that i am tired of his negative posts. The EA that he came up with is his own, Sterling simply said i hope it works. Sterling is my cousin and we came up with this system and the EA that sterling is talking about is a EA from a guy that makes them for a living. That EA is not perfect yet so he is not posted it yet, but when it is done he will post the EA that we will be using.
  • #1,432
  • Nov 22, 2008 11:48pm Nov 22, 2008 11:48pm
I'll all for progress ;-}

I know EA's aren't 100 %, but I was hoping they would be a better indicator of performance. Manual backtesting makes my shoulders stiff...

Ziko - if it helps any, here is a screen shot that I just watched in the visual back test -
http://i37.tinypic.com/anlh1x.jpg

Buy stop should have been at 1.9450, 8 pips over Jan 22 00:00 bar's high of 1.9442 but it missed. Instead it triggered at 1.9507, relevent journal entries follow -

2008.11.22 20:48:29 2008.01.18 00:00 5EMA GBPUSD,H4: open #21 buy stop 0.10 GBPUSD at 1.9799 sl: 1.9702 ok

2008.11.22 21:38:11 2008.01.22 12:00 5EMA GBPUSD,H4: open #22 buy 0.10 GBPUSD at 1.9507 sl: 1.9365 ok
  • #1,433
  • Nov 23, 2008 12:47am Nov 23, 2008 12:47am
What I don't know is this; is the mistakes in the trade strat during a back test due to the testing procedure it's self, or errors in the EA? I just came back to see that the EA did move the stop on the current trade -
http://i33.tinypic.com/20ic842.jpg
but then as the next bar formed it stop did not get moved. I've watched pass trades in this test not show any indication of the stop moving and then stop and reverse at the right place. Now the test shows one move of the stop but not the next. Growl... I guess only way to really know is to test in real time.
  • #1,434
  • Nov 23, 2008 1:33am Nov 23, 2008 1:33am
Quoting PowerBySol
What I don't know is this; is the mistakes in the trade strat during a back test due to the testing procedure it's self, or errors in the EA? I just came back to see that the EA did move the stop on the current trade -
http://i33.tinypic.com/20ic842.jpg
but then as the next bar formed it stop did not get moved. I've watched pass trades in this test not show any indication of the stop moving and then stop and reverse at the right place. Now the test shows one move of the stop but not the next. Growl... I guess only way to really know...
Thats exactly the problem with EA's they can have very deceptive backtesting results. They can take what is a very profitable and make it not as profitable. Im not totally against them, but for backtesting I am totally against them. Now dont get me wrong I try to be a humble person and I would love to have someone that is good enough with a EA to prove me wrong. That would make my life a lot easier I wouldnt have to do it manually. I will always until proven otherwise trade this system manually. Once again I hope someone proves me wrong on this and then I can sleep more than 4 hours at a time lol. Until then I will continue to do what I do and trade it manually.

I did backtest the daily chart with this system and its just plain and simple not as profitable. When you have a whipsaw with the daily...well to put it in simple terms it hurts. The stops are huge. Im still a firm believer that the 4H is the way to go with the G/U. Strange as it may sound to everyone the daily on the G/Y looks better than the daily on the G/U. Now this was just at a glace but I will have that backtested tomorrow to see weather or not this is true over the course of a year or two. Hope all is well for everyone and I hope someone becides me is live with this cuz your making some good money

-Sterling
Founder of Day Trading Forex Live
  • #1,435
  • Nov 23, 2008 1:38am Nov 23, 2008 1:38am
Quoting bullrock
Nice work. Unfortunately I do not like that it is a looser for 4 consecutive months and the bulk of the result is coming from some rare event. I mean I am not happy with the distribution and probability of the returns. I also have issues that this method might not work on other instruments. The risk is if the pattern of the GU changes.... This is the things I am trying to work on.
Agreed. If not for Sept/Oct the results on the 8 hour TF would be very sad. November will also probably wipe off a large chunk of those gains unless there is a huge turnaround.
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #1,436
  • Edited 3:59am Nov 23, 2008 2:16am | Edited 3:59am
LOL More than 4 hours sleep is the main reason I was interested in demoing the 8hr TF Sterling. I live in Melbourne, Australia and prior to trading your technique I would usually call it quits about an hour into the US session or midnight (here) thereabouts. Nowadays, at a pinch if I wanted to take more than 4 hours off it would be during the quieter Asian session, which is our daytime. I have been "live" with you since 1st October (oops November) and setting the alarm to get up every 4 hours was tough at the start, but pretty much used to it now (not sure about the wife though!). Seriously, thanks for your efforts, the pips are worth it!
If there is ever any doubt then there is no doubt.
  • #1,437
  • Nov 23, 2008 5:53am Nov 23, 2008 5:53am
Quoting stersuhr
Thats exactly the problem with EA's they can have very deceptive backtesting results. They can take what is a very profitable and make it not as profitable. Im not totally against them, but for backtesting I am totally against them. Now dont get me wrong I try to be a humble person and I would love to have someone that is good enough with a EA to prove me wrong. That would make my life a lot easier I wouldnt have to do it manually. I will always until proven otherwise trade this system manually. Once again I hope someone proves me wrong on this...
looking at the reversal signal, is there no better way to maximise profit and exit at the cross of the 5ema. possibly using trailing at the cross of the ema, or possibly using the r & s levels.

thanks. this is a great job u are doing to all traders.
  • #1,438
  • Nov 23, 2008 6:02am Nov 23, 2008 6:02am
Quoting tonirai
Sterling was quoting me in that answer, and my doubt had nothing to do with what you're saying above (but anyway, you're right).


The question piptrees first posted (in which I disagreed with his & Sterling's view - and in which piptrees already agreed with my view) was if on Sunday openning, we would re-enter the previous short while gap is below the red line, and enter long if it is above it, on the chart he presented;

My view is that the last bar on the chart is a setup bar for a long, therefore we imagine our stoploss and buy stop on...
Thanks for the ( double) clarification tonirai
  • #1,439
  • Nov 23, 2008 7:33am Nov 23, 2008 7:33am
I've made a backtest with this EA myselft and it looked to me that the EA opens order at the beginning of a new candle. So if in the reversal bar the price reaches the ordering price the EA waits for the reversal bar to close and opens the order at the open price of the new bar. This is what it looked to me. Probably i've seen wrong.

Quoting stersuhr
Thats exactly the problem with EA's they can have very deceptive backtesting results. They can take what is a very profitable and make it not as profitable. Im not totally against them, but for backtesting I am totally against them. Now dont get me wrong I try to be a humble person and I would love to have someone that is good enough with a EA to prove me wrong. That would make my life a lot easier I wouldnt have to do it manually. I will always until proven otherwise trade this system manually. Once again I hope someone proves me wrong on this...
  • #1,440
  • Nov 23, 2008 8:12am Nov 23, 2008 8:12am
Quoting stersuhr
Thats exactly the problem with EA's they can have very deceptive backtesting results. They can take what is a very profitable and make it not as profitable. Im not totally against them, but for backtesting I am totally against them. Now dont get me wrong I try to be a humble person and I would love to have someone that is good enough with a EA to prove me wrong. That would make my life a lot easier I wouldnt have to do it manually. I will always until proven otherwise trade this system manually. Once again I hope someone proves me wrong on this...
The chart that PowerBySol sent shows that there must be programming error in the EA. I am 100% sure that this system can be programmed correctly. But it is not really very easy task. First one must fully understand all the rules of the system. The basic rules are simple but to make sure that all the special cases etc. are correctly undestood the whole thread must be read and some pages many times. The programming task is also time consuming, this system cannot be programmed correctly in couple of hours, it takes at least couples of days plus some days for testing.
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