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Wall Street close watch

  • #761
  • Oct 20, 2008 10:51pm Oct 20, 2008 10:51pm
S&P may be ripe for another round of short selling on Tuesday. The expected wave iv retracement should be complete, and wave 5 down has begun, with wave iii of v to push toward testing new lows. Third waves are steep, fast, and deep movers; good money makers.

There is an alternate count for wave iv to be continuing sideways in a triangle formation, with c nearly topped out, and a w.d down then a w.e retracement that launched larger wave v down. This is still on the table, but an immediate strong move lower below the previous wave would confirm iii of v is underway. Either way, the same result is down, the triangle just delays with 2 more small waves before the plunge.

Keep in mind, a large and possible sharp retracement is expected after this wave 3 low is complete, I usually exit and re-enter after the correction is finished, preferring to only trade in the direction of the larger trend. Good trading.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #762
  • Oct 21, 2008 10:44am Oct 21, 2008 10:44am
S&P 500 and oil are very correlated right now. Below is a daily view, showing the retracement of wave IV of 3 down, should be complete. Wave V of 3 may have already begun last week, and we look for the market price action to confirm the next downward move soon.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #763
  • Oct 27, 2008 3:06pm Oct 27, 2008 3:06pm
well my wish came true, but stocks are falling so damn hard that im scared to buy as originally planned LOL. im a buyer below dow 8000, which should be pretty soon. not saying thats the bottom, but thats when i will start buying!

great analysis btw FX Offshore! i see your stuff often at FF and its always a great read!
Relax and be happy.
  • #764
  • Oct 28, 2008 12:24am Oct 28, 2008 12:24am
Thank you, my magical friend.

Be patient with your stock buying, keep your money close during deflation - it grows in value. Look at Japan, 39,000 in 1989 and 7,200 today nearly 20 years later. It is largely a demographic issue; as boomers age, they peak as stock buyers at age 46.5, which peaked in 1990 Japan, and 2000 in America. Who is going to buy the stocks and real estate?

We are due a rally in stocks, but the high and lows coming will be lower over the months, so be careful. Best to short after big volume rallies, like those crazy bailouts. Yikes!
  • #765
  • Oct 30, 2008 11:49pm Oct 30, 2008 11:49pm
This is to answer a question about widening spreads, not just TED but also long bonds vs corporate paper. This has been a key factor to follow for the past year, as it leads stocks lower.

In terms of Bonds, credit spreads have remained fairly resistant, at least so far, to narrowing. A move up in the line on this chart (a narrowing) would be a sign that the current “flight from risk” was ebbing, near term. That would be consistent with a larger counter-trend stock rise. But that’s not what is currently happening, which is one more reason to view the current rise as being part of Minor wave 4, or wave ii (circle) of 5. (lower equities).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #766
  • Oct 31, 2008 6:48am Oct 31, 2008 6:48am
Quoting FXoffshore
This is to answer a question about widening spreads, not just TED but also long bonds vs corporate paper. This has been a key factor to follow for the past year, as it leads stocks lower.

In terms of Bonds, credit spreads have remained fairly resistant, at least so far, to narrowing. A move up in the line on this chart (a narrowing) would be a sign that the current “flight from risk” was ebbing, near term. That would be consistent with a larger counter-trend stock rise. But that’s not what is currently happening, which is one more reason to view the current rise as being part of Minor wave 4, or wave ii (circle) of 5. (lower equities).

Attachment

Great chart, my friend!

I intend to brush up on my bond correlation skills anyway.
  • #767
  • Nov 3, 2008 11:32pm Nov 3, 2008 11:32pm
S&P 500 is at a short-term pivot day in this middle of the week, it could break up or down for valid reasons, so you may want to consider letting the market show the breakout. Will the market be relieved or fearful on Wednesday - after the election?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #768
  • Nov 9, 2008 11:44pm Nov 9, 2008 11:44pm
I have tried my best to point out the three scenarios I give the highest probabilities as of now. As part of the triangle Scenario A points down after a little pop to the upside. Scenario B indicates that {d} of 4 has alread bottomed and that the first turning point should be at the upper triangle border. Both A and B lead us to the downside around 750 on the SPX, our preliminary target. Due to the strength of the preceding downside move and the overwhelming negative breadth on Wednesday and Thursday I give Scenario A the highest probability rating of 40% as of now. It would also give the triangle pattern additional credence. Scenario B receives 30%, as I consider it a possibility but it’s not ideal in terms of the wave count. If we actually wind up tracing this one out over Monday/Tuesday, I would have to add a higher chance to Scenario C.


C is the bullish runner up and would of course require an adjustment of the wave count. Coincidentally this would be minor wave C of intermediate (4) or perhaps even minute wave {iii} of A of (4). Nov 9 - evilspeculator


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #769
  • Nov 20, 2008 4:47pm Nov 20, 2008 4:47pm
Quoting merlin
im a buyer below dow 8000, which should be pretty soon. not saying thats the bottom, but thats when i will start buying!
well here we are

although my buying enthusiasm has waned considerably, i got to start putting the toes in the water at some point. i guess this is it

truly unprecedented times we are going through here. we will have an incredibly story to tell if we make it through this. my blessings to all!
Relax and be happy.
  • #770
  • Nov 20, 2008 5:18pm Nov 20, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting merlin
well here we are

although my buying enthusiasm has waned considerably, i got to start putting the toes in the water at some point. i guess this is it

truly unprecedented times we are going through here. we will have an incredibly story to tell if we make it through this. my blessings to all!
Yeah, its either sticky fingers or we pull out of this by the hair of our chinny chin chin.
  • #771
  • Nov 21, 2008 1:46am Nov 21, 2008 1:46am
Quoting merlin
well here we are

although my buying enthusiasm has waned considerably, i got to start putting the toes in the water at some point. i guess this is it

truly unprecedented times we are going through here. we will have an incredibly story to tell if we make it through this. my blessings to all!
As I was telling a friend of mine in Ireland "We are living through history in the making".
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #772
  • Nov 21, 2008 8:46am Nov 21, 2008 8:46am
Quoting Ash
As I was telling a friend of mine in Ireland "We are living through history in the making".
But aren't we always?

Now I feel like a dick for what looks like winning the office pool of "how low can you go?" I bet on 7200 and it looks like I may be walking away with the pool. The scary realisation is, I have no idea what it'll do when it gets there. Something in me tells me that it's just going to meander for a while sideways, like everyone retreating into bunkers and just letting the bombs fall since we all know it's going on.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #773
  • Nov 21, 2008 2:47pm Nov 21, 2008 2:47pm
Quoting The Jedi
But aren't we always?
we are, but this kind of history is more memorable LOL. between obama and this market, i get the feeling 2008 will be a year to be remembered for decades.

Quoting The Jedi
Now I feel like a dick for what looks like winning the office pool of "how low can you go?" I bet on 7200 and it looks like I may be walking away with the pool. The scary realisation is, I have no idea what it'll do when it gets there. Something in me tells me that it's just going to meander for a while sideways, like everyone retreating into bunkers and just letting the bombs fall since we all know it's going on.
i know how you feel, ive been cheering this market to collapse since early last year, and now that its here im reminded of the old phrase "be careful what you wish for"

so...how low can stocks go, and what will the bottom look like? will it be a saucepan, or will we get a bounce like happened in 1987. at this point i havent a clue, all i know is that stocks are cheap as hell right now, and by slowly building a long position (emphasis on slowly) i might make out like a bandit. i am weighing the pain of stocks falling further against the pain of having a bargain slip away from me, and the later feels like it will hurt worse
Relax and be happy.
  • #774
  • Nov 21, 2008 5:01pm Nov 21, 2008 5:01pm
So today was one hell of a rebound finish. Moved off of my dreary bet.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #775
  • Nov 21, 2008 8:10pm Nov 21, 2008 8:10pm
Quoting merlin
we are, but this kind of history is more memorable LOL. between obama and this market, i get the feeling 2008 will be a year to be remembered for decades.


i know how you feel, ive been cheering this market to collapse since early last year, and now that its here im reminded of the old phrase "be careful what you wish for"

[color=black]so...how...
Where did you get the bright idea that stocks are cheap as hell? Were are still above P/E 10 and figure in next year's shitty earnings and your probably much higher on the P/E scale than you think. This isn't the 50s or 80s (yet).
  • #776
  • Nov 21, 2008 8:51pm Nov 21, 2008 8:51pm
Hopefully it was the fake breakout down....and 8K lvl is a real bottom...

Too early to buy in,,,as for me...


Sonic
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  • #777
  • Nov 24, 2008 12:28pm Nov 24, 2008 12:28pm
Quoting sonicdeejay
Hopefully it was the fake breakout down....and 8K lvl is a real bottom...

Too early to buy in,,,as for me...


Sonic

Thats exactly what I was thinking, when the dow broke below 8,000 I thought this is either a false break out or this is the beginning of the end, same with the S&P. So far it seems to be a false breakout. So far.......
Just Trade It
  • #778
  • Nov 28, 2008 3:24pm Nov 28, 2008 3:24pm
Wall St. has best week since 1974, can this be the bottom? Looks like a rally to me. I'm not sold on it just yet, even though I did buy some stocks, but I bought with a 20 year horizon so I'm not so worried if they fall any further. (basically because they can't fall much further)

Economy bad
Companies cheap

Eventually people have to start getting greedy right?
Just Trade It
  • #779
  • Nov 30, 2008 12:07am Nov 30, 2008 12:07am
Well.. DJI 9K seem a nice resistance...

Sonic
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  • #780
  • Dec 17, 2008 6:14am Dec 17, 2008 6:14am
The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq seem to be building a good support level that looks like it could be a bottom, However it seems more corrective than impulsive. The next wave will be critical. IMO I feel the worst is over, why? because Bush only has 33 more days until he is out of office. What could possibly go wrong in such a short amount of time?
Just Trade It
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