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GBP/JPY London Open trades

  • #21
  • Nov 6, 2008 5:49am Nov 6, 2008 5:49am
Quoting ccolb77
Almost 3 yrs of consistent trading ? That's awesome. Most people quit during the first year. There is a momentum that develops the more that we trade and learn. I am supposed to be on vacation this month but am finding it hard to stay away from my charts. However, I think that's a problem that I can live with
It took a couple of years to get through the books and a million different strategies only to find the simplest seems the most effective.Strangely enough I didn't find a good book on simple identification of support and resistance nor in fact much info at all until I came to FF.
Ha ha, I haven't had a holiday in more years than I care to remember so maybe I can help you with some advice.
If you can afford financially a holiday take the time out and have one. we are a long time dead and it seems such a waste to leave money in the bank when we are gone..
I hope you take that in the spirit it is meant and I hope not to see an answer back because you will be on holiday.

looking forward to more posistive results when you are back.
  • #22
  • Nov 6, 2008 6:16am Nov 6, 2008 6:16am
Hi Guys,

I have been reading this small forum for a few days and just like to say to Ciara what great advice you have shared, so simple that most people will overlook this.
Nice to see honest advice been given out, thank you.

luckystar
  • #23
  • Nov 12, 2008 4:58am Nov 12, 2008 4:58am
Quoting robgsxr
It took a couple of years to get through the books and a million different strategies only to find the simplest seems the most effective.Strangely enough I didn't find a good book on simple identification of support and resistance nor in fact much info at all until I came to FF.
Ha ha, I haven't had a holiday in more years than I care to remember so maybe I can help you with some advice.
If you can afford financially a holiday take the time out and have one. we are a long time dead and it seems such a waste to leave money in the bank when we are...
Wow you went down that street too with reading about all of the complicated trading strategies out there ? It's definitely been a frustrating road for me too. I've been trading less time than you only 18 months. The light didn't come on inside my head until around April of this year. Last year I began trading with s/r levels but when I encountered my first loss I hopped to other strategies trying out indicators. How stupid that was of me...Why fix what's not broken ? Oh well, we all live and we learn. Yeah, this is the first vacation that I've taken since I started trading last year. I've been keeping track of all of the trades that I would have taken though. Just keeps my head in the game. How many pips are you up to for the month ? Is it getting any easier with trading only the EUR/USD ?
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #24
  • Nov 12, 2008 5:04am Nov 12, 2008 5:04am
Quoting justlucky
Hi Guys,

I have been reading this small forum for a few days and just like to say to Ciara what great advice you have shared, so simple that most people will overlook this.
Nice to see honest advice been given out, thank you.

luckystar
Hi Luckystar,

Thank you, I love to share and help others. I've had my share of pitfalls and setbacks behind the little things. I like keeping my strategy simple. It's been the only way that I've been able to consistently accumulate pips. As with anything we humans get better and better the more that we do it.
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #25
  • Nov 12, 2008 5:11am Nov 12, 2008 5:11am
52+ (momentum was fast on this one should have taken 100 pips)

I know I'm supposed to be on vacation but when I opened my charts this morning I saw a set up that I couldn't refuse. I'm in bed with a sore throat, swollen tonsils and a fever. But I thank God for the Forex otherwise no doubt I'd call in to work sick....
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #26
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:29am Nov 13, 2008 6:29am
Quoting ccolb77
Hi Luckystar,

Thank you, I love to share and help others. I've had my share of pitfalls and setbacks behind the little things. I like keeping my strategy simple. It's been the only way that I've been able to consistently accumulate pips. As with anything we humans get better and better the more that we do it.
Hi Ciara,

hope you get better soon, I too am trying to trade just the g/y but am struggling to find a decent system. I've doing this for 14 months and still have'nt had that lucky break or the light bulb going off.
Would you share your system or is that a no no.
If yes then I will send you my private email address.

Thank you

Luckystar
  • #27
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:51am Nov 13, 2008 6:51am
Quoting ccolb77
Wow you went down that street too with reading about all of the complicated trading strategies out there ? It's definitely been a frustrating road for me too. I've been trading less time than you only 18 months. The light didn't come on inside my head until around April of this year. Last year I began trading with s/r levels but when I encountered my first loss I hopped to other strategies trying out indicators. How stupid that was of me...Why fix what's not broken ? Oh well, we all live and we learn. Yeah, this is the first vacation that I've taken...

Up a further 120 pips since Nov start. The trouble I have with this is confidence to repeat consistently month on month. My account has been up before only to lose 20 % in a fortnight so this small improvement is just that until I prove to myself otherwise.

I'll keep on truckin.
Your results are still lookin good, great news ! but sorry to hear of your bad throat.

Rob
  • #28
  • Nov 14, 2008 11:38am Nov 14, 2008 11:38am
Quoting justlucky
Hi Ciara,

hope you get better soon, I too am trying to trade just the g/y but am struggling to find a decent system. I've doing this for 14 months and still have'nt had that lucky break or the light bulb going off.
Would you share your system or is that a no no.
If yes then I will send you my private email address.

Thank you

Luckystar
Sure Luckystar I'll share with you. I didn't have any formal education just learned mostly by experience but there are some sites that come to mind that have helped me the most.

www.babypips.com for basic education which I'm sure much of it will be boring to you as you probably already know most of the basics. The main part of this to study is the candle patterns (chart patterns) under the school tab. Here we identify where the price might gain momentum or break through certain levels. www.forex4noobs.com is an overall good site. Many of the traders on there trade the G/J exclusively but use a slightly different strategy. There's a free chatroom, free ebook and free trade signals that actually work. I learned his method, took certain points from it and combined it with my own.

Since I hold my positions for a very short time from 5 min to 1 hour, I look for points on the chart where the price might gain momentum allowing me to make a quick 50 to 100 pips. I only use the 1 hour chart to make my trading decisions. My s/r levels are plotted on higher time frames though (4hr to monthly). I don't use the s/r levels to make trading decisions and find it rather dangerous. When the price comes to a s/r it does 1 of 3 things: breaks it, bounces from it or it gets stuck in a range. I would lose 50% of my trades for this reason.

Look for the most recent swing lows/highs on the 1 hour chart, once the price breaks those levels it's time to place a trade. The exceptions are if the price is slow, volatile, if it's a holiday, after 12pm on Friday, Sunday before Tokyo opens or during an economic release. I also avoid trading in areas where the price usually gets stuck in a range or gives whipsaw reactions. I hope this helps for now. I'll look into doing some screen captures to give you a picture of what my chart looks like. Generally I keep my chart up during the week and set price alerts but glance at it every session to see what it's doing. That way you stay in tune with the market.
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #29
  • Nov 14, 2008 11:56am Nov 14, 2008 11:56am
Quoting robgsxr
Up a further 120 pips since Nov start. The trouble I have with this is confidence to repeat consistently month on month. My account has been up before only to lose 20 % in a fortnight so this small improvement is just that until I prove to myself otherwise.

I'll keep on truckin.
Your results are still lookin good, great news ! but sorry to hear of your bad throat.

Rob
I know what you mean about the confidence issue. It took me a while to overcome that problem. Alot of it was programming. They are always saying that 95% of traders fail and yada yada....so that when you do start having success the back of your mind wonders "is this real" ? I noticed that when I traded with less money that I could make the trades with more confidence. If you lose, no big deal right ? It's all apart of trading. Take a break from it until the next day or at least the next session to clear your head. Understand why you lost....Did you stick to your trading strategy ? Was it just a failed trade ? Then move on. Don't beat yourself up about it. Someone said (I don't remember who) that we fail our way to the top. We do have to lose a little to win a lot is how I think.
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #30
  • Nov 15, 2008 11:42am Nov 15, 2008 11:42am
Quoting ccolb77
Sure Luckystar I'll share with you. I didn't have any formal education just learned mostly by experience but there are some sites that come to mind that have helped me the most.

www.babypips.com for basic education which I'm sure much of it will be boring to you as you probably already know most of the basics. The main part of this to study is the candle patterns (chart patterns) under the school tab. Here we identify where the price might gain momentum or break through certain levels. www.forex4noobs.com...

Thank you for your insight and advice it is helpful. The Idea of some pictures of charts would be greatly appreceiated.
This will help with chart set up etc.
Once again thx

regards

justlucky
  • #31
  • Nov 17, 2008 9:26am Nov 17, 2008 9:26am
50+ U.S. range break
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #32
  • Edited 11:59pm Nov 19, 2008 1:12pm | Edited 11:59pm
50+ U.S. (reversal)

55+ Tokyo (momentum was fast should have held for 80 to 100)
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #33
  • Nov 20, 2008 12:17am Nov 20, 2008 12:17am
We never stop learning as traders. I'm learning how to better use my mental stop losses. Today during the U.S. trade the momentum was fast and my trade line was hit so I went for 50 pips (should have went for more) but before my profit target was hit it retraced 80 pips (including the spread) against me. Usually the norm is 40 to 60 pips retracement on my trades. I also think the retracement was greater because an .00 level was broken. Usually whenever an .00 level is broken I'll see more retracement than if a .50 level is broken. These are also used as classic support and resistance levels. The short I took was at 145.08 and it retraced to 145.85. I almost closed this trade thinking it was a loser but the lesson that I learned is to allow more stop loss for retracement on fast trades. The faster the price moves, the greater the stop loss needs to be. Same rule for take profit, the faster the price moves, the greater your take profit needs to be. I'm so used to taking 50 pips that it has become a habit. 50 pips in my opinion is safe and conservative. Many trades that I lost before was due to setting too great of a take profit. But there is no reason not to take more if the market is generous.
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #34
  • Nov 20, 2008 8:15am Nov 20, 2008 8:15am
50+ U.S.
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #35
  • Edited 8:50am Nov 20, 2008 8:48am | Edited 8:50am
Quoting justlucky
Thank you for your insight and advice it is helpful. The Idea of some pictures of charts would be greatly appreceiated.
This will help with chart set up etc.
Once again thx

regards

justlucky
Justlucky,

Here is the basic set up of my chart. The grey lines are the basic s/r lines. The turquoise line represents an area to be careful in since it's close to the proverbial "bottom". The dashed blue line is where I would go long if the price were to reverse in the bulls direction. Normally I would have a red dashed line on here if I was going to go short but I have to wait to see where the new low will be which hasn't formed yet (price is still falling).

http://i36.tinypic.com/53lbax.jpg
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #36
  • Edited 10:18am Nov 20, 2008 10:16am | Edited 10:18am
The price has now made a low and is retracing or reversing. Normally I would have my eye set to go short on the dashed red line but since it is so close to the bottom I will stay out. Oftentimes when the price goes into an area where it hasn't been in years it will act funny. Also, one point worth mentioning is that the highs and lows will change throughout the day so will my points of entry as the price fluctuates. As a new high is made then I will move my dashed blue line down. Same with the dashed red line, it will be moved lower as the price makes new lows. But in this case since we are near bottom I may sit out for the rest of the U.S. session. Usually I only take the first trade of the session anyway but times when the momentum is strong then I may take two 50 pip target trades.

http://i34.tinypic.com/8zmubo.jpg
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #37
  • Edited 3:34pm Nov 20, 2008 12:27pm | Edited 3:34pm
The price did reverse and now is making higher highs and lows. So if I was trading this I would have entered in at 140.72 and got out before 141.50. The next trade I would probably take a long at 142.78 depending on market conditions. As the price continues to makes the news highs and lows I move the red/blue dashed lines to mark where I will enter my trade. However if it falls back below the previous high at 140.72 that's a sign that it's either falling into a range or the bears are regaining control of the market. Avoid tight ranges at all cost. That will kill your account quick. I'm tired though so I will do a few more screen captures then get some sleep I hope this makes more sense but feel free to ask questions if you need.

http://i38.tinypic.com/63ufpx.jpg
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #38
  • Nov 20, 2008 3:44pm Nov 20, 2008 3:44pm
Here we see that the bears regained control of the market and are continuing to make new lows. If I was trading this one I would have entered in on 139.09 and held for 80 to 100 pips.

http://i35.tinypic.com/1zgar1t.jpg


This is how I trade. If you prefer to take less trades or more trades, you can always use the same strategy but use a different time frame and change your profit target/stop loss.

Good luck
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #39
  • Edited 10:06am Nov 21, 2008 3:27am | Edited 10:06am
55+ London open

104+ U.S. (reversal)
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
  • #40
  • Edited 10:42am Nov 21, 2008 10:25am | Edited 10:42am
See the previous uptrend followed by a few hours of ranging then the reversal. There are 3 reasons why I held this for 100+ pips. 1) the momentum was fast 2) the price fell into a range close to my trend line which is a strong indication that the downtrend is still strong 3) in recent previous history once the price fell past 141.00 it gained significant momentum. Often times before you see a reversal you will see a period of ranging. You could always straddle the price and be ready for a breakout be careful though with trading range breaks.

Have a great weekend everyone

1 hour chart

http://i35.tinypic.com/zv5s2d.jpg

3 hour chart

http://i35.tinypic.com/5v29h.jpg
Discipline will take you where luck can't.
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