Too good to be true? | Forex Factory

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Too good to be true?

  • Poll

  • If you found the perfect system would you stop researching and studying forex?
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  • #1
  • First Post: Nov 18, 2008 6:42pm Nov 18, 2008 6:42pm
If you were lucky enough to find a system that won 6 times out of 10 with a profit ratio of 20/20 ( make 20 pips or stopped out at -20 pips) Would you publish the system and results on Forex Factory for every one else to use?
  • #2
  • Nov 18, 2008 6:54pm Nov 18, 2008 6:54pm
Quoting jonmem
If you were lucky enough to find a system that won 6 times out of 10 with a profit ratio of 20/20 ( make 20 pips or stopped out at -20 pips) Would you publish the system and results on Forex Factory for every one else to use?
I dont belivie that the people share they systems wich they use self, its just funny to see how much scammers and idiots here and there talk about they strategies and really sometimes every body thinks they dont lie.
  • #3
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:33pm Nov 18, 2008 7:33pm
No. It sounds like a crap system and I doubt anyone would be interested. I could list a dozen strategies that produce better results if they are followed correctly. They're all out there available for free for those who can be arsed to find them. But finding a strategy that can work does not mean a trader will make it work for them without gaining the necessary skills, perhaps ever. 90% of the content of trading forums are about entry systems yet entry systems probably only comprise 10% of the repertoire of a consistently profitable approach to the market.

I wouldn't share the holy grail any more than I would punch the Easter bunny in the face, because neither exist.
  • #4
  • Nov 18, 2008 7:52pm Nov 18, 2008 7:52pm
Quoting birdt
No. It sounds like a crap system and I doubt anyone would be interested. I could list a dozen strategies that produce better results if they are followed correctly. They're all out there available for free for those who can be arsed to find them. But finding a strategy that can work does not mean a trader will make it work for them without gaining the necessary skills, perhaps ever. 90% of the content of trading forums are about entry systems yet entry systems probably only comprise 10% of the repertoire of a consistently profitable approach to...
Well, I for one would jump at the chance of learning a method with 1:1 RR and a 60% chance of success. At 2 trades a day (asuming the system/method alowed it), 40 trades a month that would give (on average) 24 winners and 16 loosers, 8more winners than loosers. Risking 2% per trade thats 16% a month, whats wrong with that?

Poker players play with less of an edge..... casino's take nearly everyones money with less of an edge aswell.

You sir, are full of shit and I pitty the fools judgement who vouched for you.

ps. Im looking for a Successfull Career trader to help me out with my trading. Ive been learning how to trade the forex market for the past 2+ years and tried nearly everything out there. Currently im very interested in the way that Darkstar traded/trades and am looking around that area, aswell as scalping the smaller timeframes. I strongly beleive that with the right method I could put the effort in neccesary to learn and profit with it. There is also a thread where I have explained a little about me. Im not sure if many of the kind of people I would like to become aquainted with visit these forums, but I hope so.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #5
  • Nov 19, 2008 3:40am Nov 19, 2008 3:40am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Well, I for one would jump at the chance of learning a method with 1:1 RR and a 60% chance of success. At 2 trades a day (asuming the system/method alowed it), 40 trades a month that would give (on average) 24 winners and 16 loosers, 8more winners than loosers. Risking 2% per trade thats 16% a month, whats wrong with that?

Poker players play with less of an edge..... casino's take nearly everyones money with less of an edge aswell.

You sir, are full of shit and I pitty the fools judgement who vouched for you.

ps. Im looking for a Successfull...
Full of shit eh? Thanks a lot pal. I'd take 16% a month but it isn't as simple as that, and that was my point - factor in spreads, commissions, human error, slippage, extended strings of losses you'd do well to achieve much better than break-even. Positive expectancy in theory does not equate to positive reality when applied to the real world. You see, all the indicator crossover systems that you have tried probably make these kind of returns in theory, but the fact that you keep jumping from one to another suggests that you can't achieve those theoretical results. You then dismiss them as bullshit, shirk responsibility and then go to the next one. Have fun with that, maybe the penny will drop one day.
  • #6
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:13am Nov 19, 2008 4:13am
birdt is right. 60% winning rate with 1:1 doesn't mean that there couldn't come a "20 losses in a streak event".
  • #7
  • Nov 19, 2008 4:49am Nov 19, 2008 4:49am
Your poll and your first post don't agree. Your poll is relating to finding the perfect system. Your first post is regarding a system that wins 6 out of 10 times. These are two different values.

There are successful systems that do better than 6 out of 10 trades on this forum.

Good luck
"To Be A Successful Forex Trader, You Need A Successful Forex Mentor."
  • #8
  • Nov 19, 2008 7:39am Nov 19, 2008 7:39am
Yes, the poll question and discussion do not relate. Or maybe I just missed something.

My simple input would be that you should never stop researching the market. The moment you think you no longer need to learn anything about the market is the moment the market will show you something you have never seen before.
Headline: USD drops due to news of USD dropping!
  • #9
  • Nov 19, 2008 8:30am Nov 19, 2008 8:30am
Quoting birdt
Full of shit eh? Thanks a lot pal. I'd take 16% a month but it isn't as simple as that, and that was my point - factor in spreads, commissions, human error, slippage, extended strings of losses you'd do well to achieve much better than break-even. Positive expectancy in theory does not equate to positive reality when applied to the real world. You see, all the indicator crossover systems that you have tried probably make these kind of returns in theory, but the fact that you keep jumping from one to another suggests that you can't achieve those...
You have no idea how I trade or what kind of method I would consider viable. Read your first post on this thread, the message put across to the OP was totaly different to what you are saying now.

I dont know about most others, but I would consider spread as part of the risk. So when I say RR I really meen RR, 1:1 would equate to equal max loss to win.

When did I say I am jumping from system to system?

"factor in spreads, commissions, human error, slippage, extended strings of losses you'd do well to achieve much better than break-even."

 

  1. Ive already adressed the spread issue(or whatever costs).
  2. Human error is another story and is silly to bring in to the equation here.
  3. Extended strings of losses just need to be rode out, if afterall you have a 60% chance of a profitable trade things will come back in order. You have forgot to mention extended strings of winners (convenient to forget when your blindly on a mission to prove someone else wrong).

And to the poster who agreed with you, that 1v badge he has doesnt meen a thing. I dont understand even remotely why you would agree with him over me if you had taken the time to read both posts propperly.

Leon

Living the adventure in my head.
  • #10
  • Nov 19, 2008 11:18am Nov 19, 2008 11:18am
Quoting birdt
Full of shit eh?...
Just another kid playing in the "adult"world. Besides,what moron wears sunglasses inside(unless he's blind?) He(leonlorenzo) posts about every hour-lol-I wonder if he has a job or still lives in his parents basement?
FF = Forex Faggots
  • #11
  • Nov 19, 2008 1:57pm Nov 19, 2008 1:57pm
IMHO the best diversion from people flaming each other is to contribute something that's both neutral and (hopefully) constructive. So I'll attempt to do that.

Here is a table showing the probability of X consecutive losses in any 50 trade sequence, given an N% win rate. Please read the notes in the post to better understand the values therein.

As we can see, the probability of 10 consecutive losses at 60% win rate is less than 1%; the probability of 20 consecutive losses would be negligible. Everything else being equal, of course (read the post).

BTW, if I saw a mechanical system that offered a 60% win rate at 1:1 (after costs, errors, etc), that was the result of live trading for > 5 years and > 5,000 trades, and obviously hadn't been curve fitted, would I trade it? Well, let's just say that it would be significantly better than anything I've seen after almost 3 years of searching. LOL.

David
  • #12
  • Nov 19, 2008 5:56pm Nov 19, 2008 5:56pm
Quoting 8fingers
Just another kid playing in the "adult"world. Besides,what moron wears sunglasses inside(unless he's blind?) He(leonlorenzo) posts about every hour-lol-I wonder if he has a job or still lives in his parents basement?
Im one of the honest and straight forward people here. Read the guys first post on this thread, was it or not, rash and missleading to the thread starter? nobody is adressing my points here.

I post when Im not working or busy, Im certainly not one of the biggest posters here, not that there is a problem with the person that is. Im 21 and still live with my parents, why should I be ashamed about that I dont understand.

Im getting very tired with this forum, nobody listens to sense. All im here to do is maby pick up a little knowledge that will make a difference to my trading and life, and I try to help others out when I can. Yet just because I dont try to attract alot of attention and suck up to get some Ks-Vs next to my name there is no respect shown back.

The majority of people who strive for the ks or Vs have an agenda. The traders who really deserve them dont care because they have their prize regardless. The whole system(still) is useless and counter productive for the rest of the FF comunity imo.

But hey, who am I? I sad kid who wears paint shades, lives with his parents and wants to be better off than his family before him.

Ur post showed what you are.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #13
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:01pm Nov 19, 2008 6:01pm
Leon - there will come a time when you will only visit the forums for the camaraderie. After you have been trading a while and find the method that suits you, you on occasion will find some nugget that augments it. But its very rare.

i sent u a pm sometime back - you should spend more time listening to that instead of posting on this forum.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #14
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:07pm Nov 19, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting hanover
IMHO the best diversion from people flaming each other is to contribute something that's both neutral and (hopefully) constructive. So I'll attempt to do that.

Here is a table showing the probability of X consecutive losses in any 50 trade sequence, given an N% win rate. Please read the notes in the post to better understand the values therein.

As we can see, the probability of 10 consecutive losses at 60% win rate is less than 1%; the probability of 20 consecutive...
Great post as always David. I found the Table interesting, Its not as I would have thought about the Probabilities, but thats what makes it interesting I supose.

Hope the trading Is going well.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #15
  • Nov 19, 2008 6:14pm Nov 19, 2008 6:14pm
Quoting mrgreen
Leon - there will come a time when you will only visit the forums for the camaraderie. After you have been trading a while and find the method that suits you, you on occasion will find some nugget that augments it. But its very rare.

i sent u a pm sometime back - you should spend more time listening to that instead of posting on this forum.
Thanks for reminding me, Ill get back to that.

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #16
  • Nov 20, 2008 12:35am Nov 20, 2008 12:35am
I wish I lived with my parents...it means they'd still be around. Leon, don't let anyone on cyberspace get to you. It ain't worth the time and effort.
  • #17
  • Nov 20, 2008 12:44am Nov 20, 2008 12:44am
Just like a car enthusiast with the perfect car would never stop testing new ones, I would just continue to check things out.
Not all sins are created equal
  • #18
  • Last Post: Nov 21, 2008 10:28am Nov 21, 2008 10:28am
Carry on testing. Hope you find your dream vehicle.
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