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Another Great depression?

  • #41
  • Nov 13, 2008 5:42pm Nov 13, 2008 5:42pm
Quoting Pip's wife
So my strategy is scalping and using fundamental analysis.
Those are two completely different trading worlds.
  • #42
  • Nov 13, 2008 5:49pm Nov 13, 2008 5:49pm
As I said before there’s no way for you to trade ignoring the world situation, even though I am an scalper on short time frames I am always concerned on keeping myself informed, it will not probably help me on the trade but will probably help me out when choosing the trading pair. Two different worlds become one. Good luck
  • #43
  • Nov 13, 2008 5:56pm Nov 13, 2008 5:56pm
hahah! interesting thread!!! pip's wife has her point...but Suntrader has his own point too. The fundamental analysis would help you a lot more if you are over long term investments, wich means that you are probably playing around with more than just 5 grand. Scalping is more emotional and related to the current market trendline.......it is more about what you see on the indicators at one time. But it is certain that even if you are a scalper tho, a fundamental analysis will let you know wich croos to trade with...

Cheers!
  • #44
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:10pm Nov 13, 2008 6:10pm
Quoting SunTrader
........to open long term orders ...... is called investing, not trading - which during these times I wouldn't even consider with someone else's money, never mind my own. I've always thought that investing is for those who don't have the time or knowledge to trade.

As far as the news of the day and how it effect currencies, it is already reflected in the charts or will be shortly. I just think we all get more than enough from the media about how bad things are or will be in the future. How does more and more "news" help? Most of which, AIG...
So it seems that you have phobia with the media these days, and it's true right now I think that the TV, Radio, Newspapers, Internet, etc. are the last thing you want to rely on, but I just want to know something, how do you plan to get yourself informed about current economic issues? I think you have to believe like 40% of what you're being told by the media, however if you just don't stick to one of them and research on different sources, you'll get something close to what is actually happening. Dude you can't just step aside and sit around in front of your pc watching how the graphics at the MT move and based on that make yourself a Trading plan. Forex is affected by the actual economic crisis and guess what...we get ourselves informed of that by the media. Unless you can investigate for yourself the actual issues...that would be great
  • #45
  • Nov 14, 2008 1:39am Nov 14, 2008 1:39am
Have fun folks. Maybe you will be still be posting on FF this time next month.
  • #46
  • Nov 14, 2008 9:21am Nov 14, 2008 9:21am
When I first started to study TA, one of the first items I came across was the Dow Theory. The third tenet of Dow Theory is that "The Markets Discount All News", meaning that once news is released it is quickly reflected in the price of an asset.
To that end the FF cal is all the news i watch. i catch the occasional headline that is present when i go to my yahoo mail, but thats it. don't even watch tv unless my wife has some video and she plays the 'quality time' card.
In trading, there is no bullshit. You either make money or you don't.
  • #47
  • Nov 14, 2008 11:27am Nov 14, 2008 11:27am
Quoting mrgreen
To that end the FF cal is all the news i watch. i catch the occasional headline that is present when i go to my yahoo mail, but thats it. don't even watch tv unless my wife has some video and she plays the 'quality time' card.
Same here...my only concern is not putting on a trade in front of a potentially big mover like NFP or rate announcement. Other than that, I don't watch or read financial news.
  • #48
  • Nov 14, 2008 12:46pm Nov 14, 2008 12:46pm
Quoting Johnny Be Go
Dude you can't just step aside and sit around in front of your pc watching how the graphics at the MT move and based on that make yourself a Trading plan. Forex is affected by the actual economic crisis and guess what...we get ourselves informed of that by the media. Unless you can investigate for yourself the actual issues...that would be great
How many days have you been around in this game ? It's incredible how little respect newcomers show to people who've been around on FF for quite some time these days.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #49
  • Nov 14, 2008 1:49pm Nov 14, 2008 1:49pm
He got it RIGHT!!!!




Inserted Video
Check Mate GAME OVER
  • #50
  • Nov 14, 2008 3:45pm Nov 14, 2008 3:45pm
Ok all those who put on a trade that's lasts more than 2-3 days say yes.

So unless someone answers yes to that there is no need to know what the
latest news to come out 2-3 days or longer from now is going to be.

Are these traders that believe the news tomorrow is going to affect their 5M chart today!!

News that comes out while you are in a trade will most times affect it. That is why like dopey I almost never trade around FED/ECB/BOE announcements reports like retail sales/NFP/Trade balances/etc.

+ + +


And the thing that matters most about news or fundamental trading is that you have to know in advance what the reaction will be to the news that comes out. Otherwise how do you determine how to trade something before knowing the news unless you know what the market reaction will be - which most times is not probable.

So if you don't know what the "new" news is going to be and only a probable idea of the reaction, why bother?

Because it makes you feel like you are accomplishing something, except when the market does the opposite of what you thought the news was going to do to price. Then you have a built in reason why your trade went bad. Because "they" manipulated the market. Those bad big guys.



It took me a long time to realise this simple market mechanism. Trade what you see, not what you believe. And that goes for what the media believes too.
  • #51
  • Nov 14, 2008 6:18pm Nov 14, 2008 6:18pm
hey baby! you got a strong point here! actually i'm one of those traders in front of my tv watching cnbc most of the time for the economic reports and also reading well the ECB reports to see what the euro trendline could be.
However, your point about trading what you see in the chart and not what you believe..........

anyways, you dont know at all where the market is going...even if you think so...

Kittykat
  • #52
  • Nov 14, 2008 6:46pm Nov 14, 2008 6:46pm
Very wise thoughts KittyKat, couldn't have said it better. Still hold my point of view, technical and fundamental analysis, combined, are very important to create a good trading plan.
  • #53
  • Nov 15, 2008 4:32am Nov 15, 2008 4:32am
Quoting SunTrader
And the thing that matters most about news or fundamental trading is that you have to know in advance what the reaction will be to the news that comes out. Otherwise how do you determine how to trade something before knowing the news unless you know what the market reaction will be - which most times is not probable.

So if you don't know what the "new" news is going to be and only a probable idea of the reaction, why bother?

Because it makes you feel like you are accomplishing something, except when the market does the opposite...
As usual, logical, rational, and well said.
  • #54
  • Nov 16, 2008 12:49pm Nov 16, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting bunton
He got it RIGHT!!!!




http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN...f-an-economics
Absolutely incredible video. I hope those idiots laughing at him loading up on financials like they were saying.
History is written by the victors.
  • #55
  • Nov 16, 2008 2:29pm Nov 16, 2008 2:29pm
In Taleb's latest book, The Black Swan, he quotes extensively from Philip Tetlock's work on these clowns. As a group, they do worse than random and most of their predictions are two horse races.

Tetlock also found (from 27,000 predictions over an 18 year period) that the more famous and well-paid the predictor is, the worse they did. And yet just the other day I met a guy who thinks Cramer is really good. The problem is that there is no come-back on these clowns. They pull stuff out of their ass all the time yet never have to take responsibility for it.
  • #56
  • Last Post: Nov 16, 2008 2:47pm Nov 16, 2008 2:47pm
Quoting Dopey
The problem is that there is no come-back on these clowns. They pull stuff out of their ass all the time yet never have to take responsibility for it.
Sounds like Congress. Just pretend like it never was said or happened.
History is written by the victors.
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