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  • #136,261
  • Nov 13, 2008 5:58pm Nov 13, 2008 5:58pm
Well, I think we confirmed that GJ is still locked in a death grip with the Dow. With the triple bottom in the Dow, we are going to see a technical rally that ignores all bad news. I expect the dow to push up to around 10,000, and GJ will happily trail along.

Of course, then we see start of the plunge to Dow 3500.
  • #136,262
  • Nov 13, 2008 5:58pm Nov 13, 2008 5:58pm
i disagree, it still looks good for long term shorts. what we see now has not even reached 38.2 of 165.05 - 138.88... and you talk about reversal? it's too soon.

Quoting lilmoe
my friend, we are 120 pips above 50ema. 1h candle closes in 30 mins, not looking good for longer term shorts, maybe scalps yes.

i'll wait till we get to 4h 50ema at least before i think of longer term shorting. and if we close above that level, daily 50ema is next.

and in my own opinion, as long as 141.50 holds, we're going up.

this smells/looks/feels like a double bottom.

i might be wrong of course. just like i was wrong when i thought 139 wont hold.
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #136,263
  • Nov 13, 2008 5:59pm Nov 13, 2008 5:59pm
Quoting mentos
okay Geppy ... it is so hard ... but no other choice ..

thanks all .. i cut it already .. now am -600
but starting again from the begining ..... new hope
oh am getting crazy .... i am gonna have a rest for one week.


i dont know how to thank u for this great help .. am starting to love u ppl ....

Duhhhh .... i am feeling a bid relief

Bless u all
Mentos,

as the other guys said: been there, done that and know exactly what you are going through. Take some time off and try to relax. Don't let it get you down. If you find the time read "Trading in the Zone" from Marc Douglas. One of the best books about the mental side of trading.

Good luck and never give up!
  • #136,264
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:03pm Nov 13, 2008 6:03pm
USDJPY – Positioning in the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair shows that the forex trading crowd has stopped buying into USD/JPY declines—the first sign that the Japanese Yen could slow its recently impressive ascent. Indeed, we most often see that the majority of traders try to fade the ongoing trend, but long positions in the US Dollar/Japanese yen have actually fallen 28.1 percent since last week. When traders are net long but buying has dropped considerably, we have often seen a period of consolidation or even short-term reversals in trend. This suggests that the USD/JPY may range trade or bounce through near-term trading, but a drop in open interest makes it difficult to make forecasts with strong conviction through the near term.

Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Analyst
USD/JPY Ratio: 1.04
Trading Forecast: Bearish
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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[
  • #136,265
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:04pm Nov 13, 2008 6:04pm
here. 2 charts. i am trying to see the hidden bullish divergence on h1/m30, to confirm that uptrend has started already... can anyone spot it?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #136,266
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:12pm Nov 13, 2008 6:12pm
Quoting rgitt05
USDJPY – Positioning in the US Dollar/Japanese Yen pair shows that the forex trading crowd has stopped buying into USD/JPY declines—the first sign that the Japanese Yen could slow its recently impressive ascent. Indeed, we most often see that the majority of traders try to fade the ongoing trend, but long positions in the US Dollar/Japanese yen have actually fallen 28.1 percent since last week. When traders are net long but buying has dropped considerably, we have often seen a period of consolidation or even short-term reversals in trend. This suggests...
Thanks, and here is what JPMorgan is saying:

USD/JPY Still Trending Downward - JPMorgan

2321 GMT [Dow Jones] Though USD/JPY higher vs NY overnight, JPMorgan Chase Bank believes pair still trending downward as economic reports for now expected weak, which could push stocks down again at any time. Says, "If the weekend summit of authorities from the Group of 20 nations fails to come up with effective coordinated measures against the current economic conditions, the dollar and shares can resume falling again." Adds, overnight rise in pair mostly due to players' position adjustments ahead of summit; "Thursday's big drop in Japanese stocks didn't push the yen up strongly, suggesting there were many yen-long positions in the market."(TMO)
  • #136,267
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:16pm Nov 13, 2008 6:16pm
Quoting Scrat
i disagree, it still looks good for long term shorts. what we see now has not even reached 38.2 of 165.05 - 138.88... and you talk about reversal? it's too soon.
when a doji appears on a daily/weekly chart, we usually don't even get a 23.6 fib out of it.... you wait for too much confirmation, i try to catch a move a bit early. nothing wrong with both approaches.

what i'm saying here is that we might have a potential double bottom with a bullish divergence. i don't see why it should be too hard to comprehend.

if this was a "game" i don't think YM will jump crazy off a level 3 times in a row!

unlike newbies around here, u're a trader who definitely knows what he's doing. i don't think i need to worry about u bro

what i'm saying is a 50/50 chance, it's not confirmed. when it is, u'll see posting things like i'm long target such and such... i don't even see a close above 4h gann yet.

by the way, i DO see a reversal pattern on the 15m chart, this might start heading back for a good pullback (/continue it's way down?? who knows!) BUT, here's what i see on my daily chart.

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  • #136,268
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:19pm Nov 13, 2008 6:19pm
i don't buy this move either. if you look at the daily chart of ym, you'll see the range it's been in. We reached the bottom of the range, and the ppt came in to save the day. now, let's see what the bulls got.

personally, i don't think they got much.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #136,269
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:22pm Nov 13, 2008 6:22pm
Quoting mentos
so guys ... i am gonna wait for a moment and see .. if its getting worse .. iam gonna close my position ..... and start from the beginning.

thanks for ur help
mentos

i too got caught without stops .. lost 50% of my account on ej and the beast, had to bite the bullet and close... grrr i felt like chucking my self off a mountain (for an hour) had to go for a walk round and smoke a few cigs. feel much better now but it feels like im starting from scratch. anyway ive put it down to experience and im ready to rebuild. hope this helps your not the only one!! .. first post btw
  • #136,270
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:22pm Nov 13, 2008 6:22pm
Quoting ikke
If you find the time read "Trading in the Zone" from Marc Douglas. One of the best books about the mental side of trading.

Good luck and never give up!
I read that book after struggling at first, it's great.
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #136,271
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:25pm Nov 13, 2008 6:25pm
Quoting markam
Well, I think we confirmed that GJ is still locked in a death grip with the Dow. With the triple bottom in the Dow, we are going to see a technical rally that ignores all bad news. I expect the dow to push up to around 10,000, and GJ will happily trail along.

Of course, then we see start of the plunge to Dow 3500.
at least i have someone who agrees with me....

yes it IS triple bottom on Dow, it also looks like a good rejection on a higher TF.

here's a weekly chart showing a CCI TL, that i need to be broken (upwards for final confirmation, and CCI closing above the -100 line), a rejection pattern is evident.

below is a daily chart showing a strong rejection of the -100 line with a strong bullish divergence supported with a triple bottom.....

simple textbook reversal patterns, nothing from mars or venus...

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  • #136,272
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:30pm Nov 13, 2008 6:30pm
After much deliberation, I am short. Wish me luck
  • #136,273
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:32pm Nov 13, 2008 6:32pm
Quoting steelhead
Im looking for shorts

Was looking for shorts an hour ago above 146.00 if you are just now noticing that it might drop a bit you have missed the boat.
  • #136,274
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:39pm Nov 13, 2008 6:39pm
Quoting lilmoe
at least i have someone who agrees with me....

yes it IS triple bottom on Dow, it also looks like a good rejection on a higher TF.

here's a weekly chart showing a CCI TL, that i need to be broken (upwards for final confirmation, and CCI closing above the -100 line), a rejection pattern is evident.

below is a daily chart showing a strong rejection of the -100 line with a strong bullish divergence supported with a triple bottom.....

simple textbook reversal patterns, nothing from mars or venus...

Attachment

Attachment ...
i respect your analysis. and will definitely keep this in mind. the daily chart definitely looks bullish, but this smells like serious government manipulation. i'm on the sidelines watching.

the bulls gotta prove it to me. if this truly is the bottom, we shouldn't be around the lower 8000 area for some time. watching for clues.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #136,275
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:40pm Nov 13, 2008 6:40pm
new DP at 143.50, i'll try a small long from there with a 75-100 pip stop. that will also be a 38.2 retracement of that crazy rally.

i did enter short at 145.80, but closed half of it and rest at b/e. i'll hold on to just in case i was wrong.

if we close below 139 then i'll consider all what i said wrong, and wait for an opportunity to scale back some shorts.

i'll be watching cable closely. if the current levels don't hold it will collapse bigtime taking GJ with it. GJ will ignore YM in that case.
  • #136,276
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:44pm Nov 13, 2008 6:44pm
Thanks for the information forexian..

I think from a technical standpoint the 8.000 level triggered the buying that cause the rally for the Dow Jones today which I feel is short live...Tommorrow news is the Core Retail Sales and good ole Fed Chairman Bernanke that will probably cause consolidation or ping pong trend until the end of the day... I am still bearish long term...









Quoting forexian
Thanks, and here is what JPMorgan is saying:

USD/JPY Still Trending Downward - JPMorgan

[font=Microsoft Sans Serif][color=navy]2321 GMT [Dow Jones] Though USD/JPY higher vs NY overnight, JPMorgan Chase Bank believes pair still trending downward as economic reports for now expected weak, which could push stocks down again at any time. Says, "If the weekend summit of authorities from the Group of 20 nations fails to come up with effective coordinated measures against the current economic...
[
  • #136,277
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:45pm Nov 13, 2008 6:45pm
Quoting lilmoe
new DP at 143.50, i'll try a small long from there with a 75-100 pip stop. that will also be a 38.2 retracement of that crazy rally.

i did enter short at 145.80, but closed half of it and rest at b/e. i'll hold on to just in case i was wrong.

if we close below 139 then i'll consider all what i said wrong, and wait for an opportunity to scale back some shorts.

i'll be watching cable closely. if the current levels don't hold it will collapse bigtime taking GJ with it. GJ will ignore YM in that case.

ym simple

intel gave a down beat in earnings ... surprise surprise ..... we are in recession and less computers are going to sell ... we already knew that

YM /.simple ..9500 test


I went long off 8000 .... took half at 50 points and expected to come back at end of market and find other half stopped out ... had to rub the eyes when i was it +800 lol

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #136,278
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:49pm Nov 13, 2008 6:49pm
Quoting hazy
mentos

i too got caught without stops .. lost 50% of my account on ej and the beast, had to bite the bullet and close... grrr i felt like chucking my self off a mountain (for an hour) had to go for a walk round and smoke a few cigs. feel much better now but it feels like im starting from scratch. anyway ive put it down to experience and im ready to rebuild. hope this helps your not the only one!! .. first post btw
thanks hazy ... hope u become a better trader soon.

look at u .. this s ur first post ..... i assure u .. u 'll love this forum and the guys here are so kind.

keep in touch ... & i 'll get better soon ... am going to smoke some cigarettes too .....
also i ve to study for some exams i ve next week.
  • #136,279
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:50pm Nov 13, 2008 6:50pm
Quoting Flem26
i respect your analysis. and will definitely keep this in mind. the daily chart definitely looks bullish, but this smells like serious government manipulation. i'm on the sidelines watching.

the bulls gotta prove it to me. if this truly is the bottom, we shouldn't be around the lower 8000 area for some time. watching for clues.
thanks.

i guess the only way to figure thing out is to wait and see. u're being wise to stay on the sidelines
  • #136,280
  • Nov 13, 2008 6:54pm Nov 13, 2008 6:54pm
Quoting Petefaders
After much deliberation, I am short. Wish me luck

Pete get on your yahoo why are you shorting now? Careful my friend. Shorts were better 200 pips ago. It might work but dont sell as the market is going down
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