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Dion's Pyramid

  • #101
  • Mar 4, 2007 12:01pm Mar 4, 2007 12:01pm
Come on guys anyone care to comment?

By the way The example above made over 8500 pips risking only 100 pips in the period of 1 month...
  • #102
  • Mar 4, 2007 1:26pm Mar 4, 2007 1:26pm
Quoting mikhaildgreat
Come on guys anyone care to comment?

By the way The example above made over 8500 pips risking only 100 pips in the period of 1 month...
What about that big spike down on Jan 24? Wouldn't that have you adding to the shorts and then get stopped out? then long to get stopped out? That's a big spike!
  • #103
  • Edited 2:25pm Mar 4, 2007 2:11pm | Edited 2:25pm
Sorry Mikail I haven't had time to read your post thoroughly yet....

I just finished an EA that made 200% profit in 19 months with 90% MQ.... Search for "Pipstalker"

Give me a few minutes to wrap my head around your idea.

Thanks!
  • #104
  • Mar 4, 2007 2:30pm Mar 4, 2007 2:30pm
Okay Mikhail I think I see what you are doing. Instead of pyramid maximum lots into each trade, you are simply adding a single minilot to every new level.

I just noticed in your graph that there are many places where the price reversed 100 pips.... 240.00 back to 239.00 on the first run up, for example. They aren't noticable at first glance, but those bastards will stop you out quick.

If you get stopped out like that, you just start over again?
  • #105
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:47pm Mar 4, 2007 3:47pm
Quoting tdion
Okay Mikhail I think I see what you are doing. Instead of pyramid maximum lots into each trade, you are simply adding a single minilot to every new level.

I just noticed in your graph that there are many places where the price reversed 100 pips.... 240.00 back to 239.00 on the first run up, for example. They aren't noticable at first glance, but those bastards will stop you out quick.

If you get stopped out like that, you just start over again?
Yup Straddle Again... Maybe there is better way to do this, to avoid nasty spikes... like using MA on close or better yet use ATR to determine the optimal distance of the levels...

I like your idea I just dont think its practical to risk the whole capital in an all or nothing trade...

Mikhail
  • #106
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:58pm Mar 4, 2007 3:58pm
Quoting drayco
What about that big spike down on Jan 24? Wouldn't that have you adding to the shorts and then get stopped out? then long to get stopped out? That's a big spike!
yup your right... short would have stopped out for breakeven and long would have stopped out for -100 pips.

-Mikhail
  • #107
  • Mar 5, 2007 12:00am Mar 5, 2007 12:00am
Is the graph an EA that you've programmed? I'd love to see some backtests of an EA with your idea. Variables would allow you to change level sizes and change lot increments. In other words, level 1 is 1 microlot, level 2 is .9 microlots, level 3 is .8 microlots. It might be more profitable.

I will write this EA myself if you nobody is interested in doing it.
  • #108
  • Mar 5, 2007 12:06am Mar 5, 2007 12:06am
Quoting tdion
Is the graph an EA that you've programmed? I'd love to see some backtests of an EA with your idea. Variables would allow you to change level sizes and change lot increments. In other words, level 1 is 1 microlot, level 2 is .9 microlots, level 3 is .8 microlots. It might be more profitable.

I will write this EA myself if you nobody is interested in doing it.
Hi Tdion, what is the logic behind decreasing the amount of lots per level? can you explain... And I havnt converted this theory into EA yet.

I can program this, but if you want to program it that would be better for me

-Mikhail
  • #109
  • Edited 12:32am Mar 5, 2007 12:18am | Edited 12:32am
You are right it wouldn't help.

One thing that would help though is to not enter the market at level 1.

The entry would be:

Level 0: 1 microlot
Level 2: 1 microlot (stopout 100, BE)
Level 3: 1 microlot (stopout 100, +100)
Level 4: 1 microlot (stopout 100, +300)

You can get very greedy doing this, have an entry strategy like this:

Level 0: 1 microlot
Level 2: 1 microlot (breakeven at -100)
Level 3: 2 microlot (breakeven at -100)
Level 4: 4 microlot (breakeven at -100)

Do you see what I am saying? Once you make 200 pips, you are guaranteed breakeven..... and you are pyramiding heavily with the worst case as breakeven.
  • #110
  • Edited 12:47am Mar 5, 2007 12:33am | Edited 12:47am
take a look at GPUJPY if we started doing this from the start of the week we would now be in level 4 right now!

I was also thinking of limiting the levels say TP at Level 5. It could maybe increase the number of wins by doing this...

You could also multiply the next level by a % of the floating profit so you could get a gradually increasing pyramid and still be able to lock in pips at the same time. Sometimes greed is good, actually when I first saw this possibility of the reverse grid first thing that came to my mind is that the strategy could be too good to post in the public forum, I thought of keeping it to myself. Greed, but then realized that there is nothing brokers can do to keep us from doing this.

So are you going to program this tdion? or should I?

-Mikhail
  • #111
  • Edited 12:58am Mar 5, 2007 12:43am | Edited 12:58am
Mikhail one problem....

You never know when the market reverses.... how do you decide what direction to bet? Are you always going to go long? You will get crushed in correction, losing 100 repeatedly.

Do you always go long and short at every level, and close a loser when it stops out? In a trending market, this could work because one of the level 0s will be making profit as the price moves away.

Sorry this is complicated. I don't think I will program it this week.
  • #112
  • Edited 1:03am Mar 5, 2007 12:52am | Edited 1:03am
Quoting tdion
Mikhail one problem....

You never know when the market reverses.... how do you decide what direction to bet? Are you always going to go long? You will get crushed in correction, losing 100 repeatedly.

Do you always go long at short at every level, and close a loser when it stops out? In a trending market, this could work because one of the level 0s will be making profit as the price moves away.

Sorry this is complicated. I don't think I will program it this week.
There are numerouse ways to approach this. One is we can straddle when there is no open orders. buy stop and sell stop 100 pips apart just like grid trading except we are using stop orders instead of limit orders... so everytime we get stoped out we straddle again. Or we could use stop and reverse strategy where there is always a buy stop or sell stop order waiting wherever our SL is, but this could also mean being stopped more often. The graph I posted earlier used the stop and reverse.

this can also be incorporated with many trend fallowing strategies like the MAs, tlatomi, or whatever but we should keep it simple at first and see if the theory is valid.

I will modify one of my straddle EAs and post it later today, but using fixed lots just to make the programming easier.

-Mikhail
  • #113
  • Mar 5, 2007 1:09am Mar 5, 2007 1:09am
Sounds good Mikhail.... I don't have the MQ4 syntax down well enough to just crank it out in a few minutes.

Peace.
  • #114
  • Mar 5, 2007 1:33pm Mar 5, 2007 1:33pm
Hello Again,

There is some progress in the EA, but there are still bugs that needs to fixed so i will not post it yet. when I change the Straddle distance EA goes crazy but when using default of straddle of 100 pips it works without any problems...

So I played around with it and found interesting results. Since the only thing I could change is the SL level thats what I played around with. There is quite a difference in the equity curve of SL 50 and SL 100, I leave you tdion to anaylize this; tested from Feb1,07 until today pair GBPJPY.

here is the equity graph with SL 100; Straddle 100;

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/8...id100sldi1.gif

Now take a look with SL 50; Straddle 100; it has more trades but the equity graph is much more smoother:

http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/995...mid50slzj2.gif

but difference is only 300 pips with SL 50 gaining a little bit more money...

Of coarse these tests are still inconclusive because its was based on a very small sample because this is all the tick data I currently have for GBPJPY...

Regards,
Mikhail

PS. Tdion you got mail
  • #115
  • Mar 13, 2007 8:21am Mar 13, 2007 8:21am
Quoting mikhaildgreat
Hello Again,

There is some progress in the EA, but there are still bugs that needs to fixed so i will not post it yet. when I change the Straddle distance EA goes crazy but when using default of straddle of 100 pips it works without any problems...

So I played around with it and found interesting results. Since the only thing I could change is the SL level thats what I played around with. There is quite a difference in the equity curve of SL 50 and SL 100, I leave you tdion to anaylize this; tested from Feb1,07 until today pair GBPJPY.

here is the equity graph with SL 100; Straddle 100;

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/8...id100sldi1.gif

Now take a look with SL 50; Straddle 100; it has more trades but the equity graph is much more smoother:

http://img71.imageshack.us/img71/995...mid50slzj2.gif

but difference is only 300 pips with SL 50 gaining a little bit more money...

Of coarse these tests are still inconclusive because its was based on a very small sample because this is all the tick data I currently have for GBPJPY...

Regards,
Mikhail

PS. Tdion you got mail
Hello to Mikail and Tdion (and everyone)

I tried to manualy make sthe pyramid described before

Level 0: 1 microlot
Level 2: 1 microlot (stopout 100, BE)
Level 3: 1 microlot (stopout 100, +100)
Level 4: 1 microlot (stopout 100, +300)

but the problem is that i need an EA which can change the SL of the previous orders (i mean that when the SL of lvl 3 trade is reach the EA must close all the orders (lvl0, lvl 1, lvl 2 and lvl 3) at same time.

I know a script which close very quickly all orders (opened and pending) but i don't know how to do the EA to try the Tdion (and Mikhail) pyramid.

Can u share your EA Mikhail ?

If u don't want it's not a problem it is your EA not mine.

Anyway thanks for the strategy of trading wich seems very good because not many risk and no indicator (i prefere the logic of systems than some indicators).
  • #116
  • Mar 13, 2007 12:17pm Mar 13, 2007 12:17pm
It could be a good idea to start this pyramid at critical levels or heavy news. For example watching GBP/JPY move the previous weeks would be a good signal to start the pyramid. For this pair I think a 200pip stop is more appropriate.

About direction, I would bet long for xyz/jpy pairs and revise after 1-2 stop outs...

I'll be waiting for the EA to test on demo.

Thanks
  • #117
  • Mar 13, 2007 1:09pm Mar 13, 2007 1:09pm
Quoting Scientist
It could be a good idea to start this pyramid at critical levels or heavy news. For example watching GBP/JPY move the previous weeks would be a good signal to start the pyramid. For this pair I think a 200pip stop is more appropriate.

About direction, I would bet long for xyz/jpy pairs and revise after 1-2 stop outs...

I'll be waiting for the EA to test on demo.

Thanks
Actually I used the EA to trade last weeks NFP I only got half way to level2 it almost hit level3 but by that time I already chickened out and closed the trade...

I just have not posted it because the EA has a critical bug not allowing you to change the straddle level, I just havent found the time to fix this, and according to tdion he backtested the EA for a longer period and it was a big loser...

-Mikhail
  • #118
  • Mar 13, 2007 2:09pm Mar 13, 2007 2:09pm
Quoting mikhaildgreat
Actually I used the EA to trade last weeks NFP I only got half way to level2 it almost hit level3 but by that time I already chickened out and closed the trade...

I just have not posted it because the EA has a critical bug not allowing you to change the straddle level, I just havent found the time to fix this, and according to tdion he backtested the EA for a longer period and it was a big loser...

-Mikhail
Thanks for your efforts.

S
  • #119
  • Mar 15, 2007 4:25am Mar 15, 2007 4:25am
Look at the thread i began here :

http://www.forex-tsd.com/expert-advi...ing-trend.html

U can of course help in this formum or the other.

I am at work but i am beguining to think at an other EA (not the Tdion modified).
  • #120
  • Mar 25, 2007 11:09am Mar 25, 2007 11:09am
The Author of this thread has requested I delete this thread, but I cannot do that, because there are posts from other members. So, I will close the thread and it will fall from circulation.
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