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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #801
  • Nov 9, 2008 11:11pm Nov 9, 2008 11:11pm
Hi Pipeye,

I do not normally trade Cable, so my charts are not kept 'in tune'. I only look at EUR/USD, oil, S&P, as swing trades, mid term. But I gave it a quick evaluation. I see GBP in a triangle as well, wave A is a double zig-zag like Euro I assumed, and the rest counts easily. If this is the correct count, wave E is near complete now - I would expect another push higher with a false break to the top side, then the start of wave V down.

On your chart, wave 4 significantly overlaped wave 1, which breaks one of the three rules. Sometimes this can be the case in a diagonal triangle, but I don't see it in that form, I could easily be wrong. Always best to consider the alternative and welcome valid counts. The key is knowing how to eliminate or lower some counts, and ideally get to just one before entering the trade. For me that is an "8-cycle" (a 5 followed by a 3 retracement).

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #802
  • Nov 10, 2008 6:22am Nov 10, 2008 6:22am
Quoting FXoffshore
Hi Pipeye,

I do not normally trade Cable, so my charts are not kept 'in tune'. I only look at EUR/USD, oil, S&P, as swing trades, mid term. But I gave it a quick evaluation. I see GBP in a triangle as well, wave A is a double zig-zag like Euro I assumed, and the rest counts easily. If this is the correct count, wave E is near complete now - I would expect another push higher with a false break to the top side, then the start of wave V down.

On your chart, wave 4 significantly overlaped wave 1, which breaks one of the three rules. Sometimes this can be the case in a diagonal triangle, but I don't see it in that form, I could easily be wrong. Always best to consider the alternative and welcome...
Much appreciated. You know, I have been a little confused about the overlap rule (wave 4 into wave 1), as it seems that some people allow for it to enter but not close into the area of wave 1. The problem with that is the ambiguity it creates. From now on, no overlap for this kid.
  • #803
  • Nov 10, 2008 6:38am Nov 10, 2008 6:38am
UsdCad chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #804
  • Edited 3:51pm Nov 10, 2008 7:49am | Edited 3:51pm
Quoting pipeye
Much appreciated. You know, I have been a little confused about the overlap rule (wave 4 into wave 1), as it seems that some people allow for it to enter but not close into the area of wave 1. The problem with that is the ambiguity it creates. From now on, no overlap for this kid.
As I said earlier, I think the only trouble with that is sometimes the waves just don't cooperate. A wave 4 trades into wave 1, then a wave 5 completes and the trader is left behind.
  • #805
  • Nov 10, 2008 2:39pm Nov 10, 2008 2:39pm
Hi!
I read The quick and short about EW.
What would a seasonned(successfull) EW counter trader advise me to read after?
THX,NL
  • #806
  • Nov 10, 2008 7:33pm Nov 10, 2008 7:33pm
Quoting lacika
I read The quick and short about EW. What would a seasonned(successfull) EW counter trader advise me to read after? THX, NL
Read everything you can. There are many free resources. And practice counts on charts. It takes a great amount of practice to learn, and much experience to sense when you have a too many viable counts to trade.

Quote
Elliott Wave International's tutorial is the most comprehensive introduction to the Elliott Wave Principle available in cyberspace. All ten lessons have been adapted from Prechter and Frosts Wall Street bestseller, Elliott Wave Principle - Key to Market Behavior.
To start your Elliott wave education now, click here.
Buy the book, and take the online free courses while you are waiting. A collection is in the early stages of being published at: http://vault.bz/elliott-wave/
  • #807
  • Nov 10, 2008 8:24pm Nov 10, 2008 8:24pm
ok; done with wave 4.

It is time to count the 5 wave sequence that is under way.
i.e. count the sub-waves of 1 of 5 of (3 or C).

I have noticed that some friends are counting wave 3 as completed and the triangle wave 4 as being 4 of a larger 5- wave structure.

My count considers this triangle as wave 4 of 3 (or C), and considers the current wave that has started today as 5 of 3 (or C). Your observations and comments on this aspect of the count are welcome (count details given at my first post on this thread).

Next chart, today's 5 wave sequence.
cheers.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: @EU# wave1 of 5 of (3 or C) 11-10-2008.gif Size: 19 KB
  • #808
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:00pm Nov 10, 2008 9:00pm
Robert Prechter teaches theory.

But the guy who teaches how to practically trade EW is Robert Miner and his book is Dynamic Trading.
  • #809
  • Nov 10, 2008 9:59pm Nov 10, 2008 9:59pm
Is it possible that we just completed D and are on our way to complete E?
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  • #810
  • Edited 11:28pm Nov 10, 2008 11:17pm | Edited 11:28pm
Quoting pipeye
Is it possible that we just completed D and are on our way to complete E?
I do not think so .e perhaps already completed & in 2 of wave 4 & also I see the treandline already broken ,if not making any complex then to down to form the wave 3 or subwave may be .

Most important, prices still in the triangle ,that has to be broken for this count of wave 5 ,anytime today perhaps or even can make another complex in wave 4 ( very unlikely to me though ) .

lets see what happen .
fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #811
  • Nov 10, 2008 11:26pm Nov 10, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting fontu
I do not think so .
fontu
A chart and an explanation would be nice...
  • #812
  • Nov 11, 2008 12:18am Nov 11, 2008 12:18am
Quoting pipeye
A chart and an explanation would be nice...

Sorry , here is the chart I see
Attached Image
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #813
  • Nov 11, 2008 1:41am Nov 11, 2008 1:41am
Quoting SunTrader
Robert Prechter teaches theory.

But the guy who teaches how to practically trade EW is Robert Miner and his book is Dynamic Trading.
I second this recomandation. There's a lot of original stuff in Dynamic Trading but most important its practicability.

Another good book is The Elliott Wave Principle Applied to the Forex Markets by Robert Balan. The really neat thing here is how a trade is managed from the pov of EW. Again a book focused on practicability.
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #814
  • Nov 11, 2008 1:55am Nov 11, 2008 1:55am
i'm agree with that chart...
this price going up to get a momentum to go down again i think...
cause it's already broken the triangle...
hope it's for real
nice work bro

Quoting fontu
Sorry , here is the chart I see
Money management is good for your health...
  • #815
  • Nov 11, 2008 2:04am Nov 11, 2008 2:04am
Quoting soso
I second this recomandation. There's a lot of original stuff in Dynamic Trading but most important its practicability.

Another good book is The Elliott Wave Principle Applied to the Forex Markets by Robert Balan. The really neat thing here is how a trade is managed from the pov of EW. Again a book focused on practicability.
Hi soso,

Do you knw anywhere to find Robert Balan book?

I have searched in ebay and amazon, but couldn't find it.

Regards - BB
  • #816
  • Nov 11, 2008 2:17am Nov 11, 2008 2:17am
Quoting Blue bottle
Hi soso,

Do you knw anywhere to find Robert Balan book?

I have searched in ebay and amazon, but couldn't find it.

Regards - BB
Do a google search and you'll find sites where you could download it for free.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #817
  • Nov 11, 2008 2:36am Nov 11, 2008 2:36am
Quoting 13thheaven
i'm agree with that chart...
this price going up to get a momentum to go down again i think...
cause it's already broken the triangle...
hope it's for real
nice work bro
Thanks but I do not see the triangle broken anytime & now up for 50% retracement ( of the last down movement )to 1.2780 or more before any down .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #818
  • Nov 11, 2008 3:03am Nov 11, 2008 3:03am
Quoting FXoffshore
Read everything you can. There are many free resources. And practice counts on charts. It takes a great amount of practice to learn, and much experience to sense when you have a too many viable counts to trade.

Buy the book, and take the online free courses while you are waiting. A collection is in the early stages of being published at: http://vault.bz/elliott-wave/
Thanks for the Help!
NL
  • #819
  • Edited 5:22am Nov 11, 2008 4:27am | Edited 5:22am
Quoting pipeye
Is it possible that we just completed D and are on our way to complete E?
pipeye,
Yes it is.
Good observation.

In wave analysis almost anything is possible.
Elliott Wave analysis and EW technicians are notorious for mis-interpretations of wave structure.

take care.
  • #820
  • Nov 11, 2008 6:21am Nov 11, 2008 6:21am
Quoting unicorn7411

Elliott Wave analysis and EW technicians are notorious for mis-interpretations of wave structure.

This usually happens because EW technicians sometimes fall in love with their "preferred count", forgetting about the alternate count (the wave structure that although feasible by the rules, they consider as having less to minimal probability of occurrence).

To make things worse, a lot of times pride comes into play; making it harder to see a development against the preferred count, when (and if) the probabilities shift in favor of the alternate count.

EW is not exact science.

But when you get the structure correctly, it does provide good estimates for likely targets.

Additionally, when you get the structure correctly, you can anticipate choppy market action (and stay on the sidelines); there is value in that.

My point of view:
1) present your EW count to fellow analysts/traders and ask for criticism.
2) EW is not a trading method, it is an analysis methodology
3) use EW count as a filter to a good trading method.

as always, observations and remarks are welcome.

ps. I did have a question 2 posts back, I would appreciate feedback.
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