Elliott Wave Trading

My take on the EUR?USD pair, for what it's worth:

We're in agreement that it's a Wave 4 correction, right? I see Wave A as a 5-wave up-move; Wave B which is in progress is a triangle; and the thrust when Wave B ends will be a 5-wave upmove (Wave C) that will complete the whole corrective ABC move.

My same thoughs exactly. I'd rather see it like this.

How about Cable? The move down looks corrective to me. At this point we have A fib relationship between corrective waves and if it is on par with Euro then it should go up...

Corrective move down stopped between 50%-62% retracement zone. Also in there we have a strong pivot level that hold the price. From an EW pov we have a=c. Probabilities are in favor of Bullish following in my opinion.

soso, Rocroy, doji

Thank you for your point of view.

doji, the count you suggest is very interesting. I will look into the 5 wave A move.

cheers.

Thanks all for the new views as the B wave still to finish & C to up to start but I still did not changed my mind of the old counting as we are in wave 4 correction making comlexes ,may be more but ultomately to down for the wave 5,Big C up still a possibilities though it may short cut now with already the 5 th wave starts inside the narrower proximities of the triangle in eurusd & if wave 1 =wave 5 then more 1600 pips to down & similar situation in most pairs similar .
just taking possibilities .
http://www.gogetin.info/eu811.gif

ma,stoches ,Lswpr & no divergence arround suggest this movement .
fontu

soso wave ii is rarely a triangle..I'll consider it wave B.I'm talking about the eur/usd count.

doji;

I cannot have a clean 5 wave count for A;
It does not look natural; in my opinion one has to force the count to be 5 waves as opposed to a WXY;

If you have a detailed count of A please post it.

Thank you.

hi ms
small t.p
eur gbp montly

eur gbp 5m +garttly =1:1:c

How about this count - any comments? May not be very clean / nice looking, but do you find any faults in it?

R

hi traders..wow..what can i say.I am really glad to find this thread..i have been dying to meet good wave traders..i mean those that are sound..in there counting..or join a party of wave traders but have really been unable to find one..till now i mean..it was like nobody trades wave..but am glad i found you guys..so i will say thanks for keeping the thread up till am here...
Now to business..ill like to start with the gbp/usd analysis....its really a tricky one..for those that are in the unknown zone..but i guess we are lucky uh..?anyway...gu is currently trading in the wave B zone for now NO DOUBT ABOUT that! as triangles are not in wave 2 but only in 4 and Bs and this definitely is not a 4 so we are left with one option B.Now here comes the tricky part..as a waver..we all know the C move is up..n i think we are all anticipating to go long..but before we get jumpy..i will like to bring our notice to this..
the first wave up wave A unfolded in a 3 wave pattern..thereby paving a way for a flat consideration...as we all know that a 3 wave move up as A precedes a 3 wave move down for B,with a new price high (in bear a new price low.)so i will like to break down these wave B into wave counting to confirm the analysis..now.
First triangles take a 3 3 3 3 3 pattern labelled abcde.now as i have indicated in my chart below we are currently in the (d) of b and i want you to remember that wave (e) is still coming..which as we all know..will undershoot the trendline..
there is actually so much to say but i hope we can all develop on this..n understand that the market..will still form a new low before..the C bull wave will begin..and with the news of usd gaining this week..i dont think it is wise to go long now..till the e wave is completed..
Another reading ..using ratio analysis in wave..also forcasts the same thing as i have also shown in my chart below..that a new low must be seen before a bulish C would be formed..my..ratio analytical targets are as follow..
wave (a)of B travelled 1092 points downward..and since wave A equals wave C using the equality rulein a normal zigzag..wave C will also travel 1092 points or more..giving the target point at 1.5100 precisely..but there could be more depending on the dow confirmations...there by confirming again that a new low will be seen.
So why not sit back and relax ..watch and wait for this low to be seen before going long...as for me.. i will start going long..on gu from this point..i mean 1.5100 with a good money management..i hope these will shead the light that we are all waiting for.We wil talk about the target point..when we are in the long position...uhmmm..
Can u imagine..even using chart patterns..we are seeing a decending triangle..a confirmation for short....and using trendline analysis...u can sell on the break of this lower trendline.......what else could you possibly want?NOW WHO SAYS THE MARKET IS CHAOTIC....pls keep piping.or watching...
for any arguments or more explanation..mail [email protected] (add ff)

There's your chart, unicorn.

(This is too embarassing but up to now, I still don't know how to post charts. My apologies.)

doji, hope it helps u..

Thanks for details explanation of your views .I still think we are in 4 wave of big A down & hence we will see or expect any new low otherwise not .if we assume already finish A wave then in B we can't expect any new low soon but in C it may happen much later dates & B should be much higher than it was at least 38.2 % retracement at 1.7141 level to up 61.8% 1.8262 levels as were very likely in this situation of the market but they did not happen. next if the present subwave b down channel breaks up may overshoot at or above 1.6672 but may not as high as 38% retracement at 1.7141.

lets see what happen in next few weeks .

fontu

Hi Rocroy;

Thanks for the count;

It is almost the same as the one I came up with.
Now, let me explain what I don't like about it:

If you pick all the waves labeled as 1 and go to the 2 min (or the 1 min) chart and examine them you will verify that they are a-b-c sequences; not clean 1-2-3-4-5 sequences.

This means that the perceived (1-2-3) sets of the assumed (1-2-3)-4-5 sequences are in effect breaking as 3-3-5 sequences i.e. as corrective a-b-c while the perceived 4-5 sequence is the following X-Y of the W-X-Y.

This points to 3-3-5 waves as W, followed by (3-3-3) X, followed by a five structure, the Y wave.

Have a look; let me know.
All observations and analysis remarks are welcome.

Or use Manage Attachments - down below Smiley Emoticons - in the Additional Options box

Browse, upload etc.

Thanks for a detailed and careful analysis, I'm glad you joined the thread.

Now to your claim about first waves (on bold below). I did examine the waves on 1min chart, and it seems to me that both counts are possible. They (1. waves) may not the most elegant or clean impulses, but anyhow imo counting them as such does not violate any of the ew rules. And if this is the case, I'd certainly prefer 1-2-3-4-5 instead of a-b-c.

Anyhow, I guess we just need to wait for additional data and complete the counting when we know a little bit more.

Thanks again, R

fontu
oh..i think i now get what you are trying to say fontu...besides i am not disputing the fact that we are in a wave 4..but thats on a daily timeframe..and about the complain on why the 38.2 point has not been met is not a big deal cos its going to hit..before we see more movement down..more..but mean while i feel the wave 4 (broken down) itself is trying to be a complex flat with a temporal new low that would be formed at around..1.5100 as first target and a complete analytical point at 1.4925 in order to justify the movement up C...am very positive about this as this point i mean the 38.2% retracement point will be achieved.then ..only then will the new low wave 5 be seen.
thanks for the enlightenment but am talking about the wave 4 itself..the circles point is the point of concern.
pls i will gladly welcome anymore coments..pls.

As expected, a bearish contracting triangle formed as wave 4 in EUR/USD over the past 4 weeks, and it is reaching an optimum trade entry with the near completion of wave E. Aggressive traders can enter within the red-dashed box near 1.30 at the top of E with 1/2 lots, then the other 1/2 when price breaks the lower trend line and closes a candle to confirm the downward start of wave i of (5) down. Downside target is below 1.2300, and may exceed 1.20 by mid-December to set a low before a large retracement.

Hey FXoffshore,

Considering the euro is forming a triangle in its wave 4. Do you think that the Pound could have already completed its wave 4 and possibly wave 1 of 5. I have attached a chart with what appears to be a 5 wave count in wave 1 and also a nice Head and Shoulders pattern developing. Your comments would be much appreciated.