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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #881
  • Mar 2, 2007 12:47pm Mar 2, 2007 12:47pm
I'm glad you figured everything out!
This thread gets stranger by the hour~
Long live the Duke


Quoting trader8686
Thanks to all of your company, this week I harvest 1,500 pips with bounch of standard short lots. Not only becuase of your support, but also simply by luck. Again, thanks to all of you. Let me know, if I can be your help, too.http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
T
  • #882
  • Mar 2, 2007 2:55pm Mar 2, 2007 2:55pm
Here's a piece of information from Saxo Bank's analyst:

"FX strategist Kristian Siggaard-Jensen says it's "crunch time" for Asian carry trades ahead of Monday's Asia-Pacific session, and the key level to break is 116.80 in USD/JPY. "We are looking for a close below this level either late today or on Monday, as it's the key trigger for short- to mid-term traders in the market to begin aggressively selling. This may be enough of a catalyst to spark broader unwinding in the larger complex of Asian carries, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY - the latter two already suffering from weakness in precious metals. We are very close to a technical reversal in these carry trades, but 116.80 is make-or-break," he says."

In his opinion, this could be just the beginning of a major move down, due to unwiding of the carry trades. Let's hope that he's right!
  • #883
  • Mar 2, 2007 3:35pm Mar 2, 2007 3:35pm
Quoting zawodowiec
Here's a piece of information from Saxo Bank's analyst:

"FX strategist Kristian Siggaard-Jensen says it's "crunch time" for Asian carry trades ahead of Monday's Asia-Pacific session, and the key level to break is 116.80 in USD/JPY. "We are looking for a close below this level either late today or on Monday, as it's the key trigger for short- to mid-term traders in the market to begin aggressively selling. This may be enough of a catalyst to spark broader unwinding in the larger complex of Asian carries, USD/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY - the latter two already suffering from weakness in precious metals. We are very close to a technical reversal in these carry trades, but 116.80 is make-or-break," he says."

In his opinion, this could be just the beginning of a major move down, due to unwiding of the carry trades. Let's hope that he's right!
usd/jpy goes today to 116.42
so is that mean that the trend will go down more >>> and also on gbpjpy or what?
If you count on hope in any trade ……. Get out of it
  • #884
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:00pm Mar 2, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting pblrz
Estás en el horno !!!
Pablito.. en esta estamos juntos!!! ajajaja
  • #885
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:07pm Mar 2, 2007 4:07pm
Quoting mandoaddam
usd/jpy goes today to 116.42
so is that mean that the trend will go down more >>> and also on gbpjpy or what?
Well it touched 116.42 and jumped back up and is now fixed at 116.82 for the weekend. I think the Tokyo open on Sunday night will give us our direction for next week. Any sustained close below 116.80 and it could be look out below! All of my indicators are still showing a downtrend, which is unusual for a Friday when they normally go flat.
  • #886
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:14pm Mar 2, 2007 4:14pm
Primer persona que veo hablando espanol !!!
Cuanto tiempo llevas en forex?
Whatever you do, just keep doing it in a dicipline manner.
  • #887
  • Mar 2, 2007 4:52pm Mar 2, 2007 4:52pm
Quoting mandoaddam
usd/jpy goes today to 116.42
so is that mean that the trend will go down more >>> and also on gbpjpy or what?
No need to predict anything at the moment. Just wait and see what happens next week, and react. Have a good weekend
  • #888
  • Mar 2, 2007 7:35pm Mar 2, 2007 7:35pm
Quoting Pipsqueak
Here we go. I'm in long 233.10. Let's ride this bull to 238!!!!!!!!!!!
Damn???? I hope that you're still not tryin' to ride that donkey!!!
  • #889
  • Mar 3, 2007 11:44pm Mar 3, 2007 11:44pm
Now this going down is becoming boring...better go up for change... but not sideways
  • #890
  • Mar 4, 2007 1:35am Mar 4, 2007 1:35am
Do you think its better to hold off trading this one and other JPY pairs for the time being?

bobtuf
  • #891
  • Mar 4, 2007 1:55am Mar 4, 2007 1:55am
I just do not see any indication of this pair going up at this point in time. One thing that this pair is extremely good at is covering a great deal of territory without a retracement. Eventually it will retrace, and when it does I will ride it up, but I just do not see any reason that it is about to happen. At one point on Friday, I saw indications of a retracement, but it had a hard time making any headway upward, then stalled and started down again. It just could not sustain a move upward at that time.

At this point, I am suspecting a further fall of 150 to 300 pips because the next stations I see on this train line are around 225.5 then 224. At that point we should expect a retracement to at least 38.2, if not considerably higher. The determining factour at that point may be the prevailing attitude toward carry trades.
  • #892
  • Mar 4, 2007 3:02am Mar 4, 2007 3:02am
I agree with you, my indicators still showing down but i am expecting a upside of 100 pips at least before we see another rally.
but i dont expect to open a long anytime soon. we may see another great week inc.
  • #893
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:03pm Mar 4, 2007 5:03pm
I'm just newbie to forex but the one the I've learned is that what goes up must come down and vice versa. So with such a dramatic drop of the gbp/jpy, the chance of a recovery (if only temporary) seams very very possible. Back in Dec. 2005 it dropped even more in a week and recovered over next few weeks. So a recover to the 231 level is possible.....but who knows maybe more....
  • #894
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:35pm Mar 4, 2007 5:35pm
crazy open
  • #895
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:40pm Mar 4, 2007 5:40pm
Quoting logical1
crazy open
Yeah I'm already up over 100 pips.
  • #896
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:52pm Mar 4, 2007 5:52pm
My oxygen bottle kicked in. Out with 130 pips. Can't take the pressure. Might bounce back at the 200 SMA.

Quoting imbiber
Yeah I'm already up over 100 pips.
  • #897
  • Mar 4, 2007 5:58pm Mar 4, 2007 5:58pm
Quoting milan47
My oxygen bottle kicked in. Out with 130 pips. Can't take the pressure. Might bounce back at the 200 SMA.
My stops have at least 50 pips protected. I'm going to let it ride.
  • #898
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm Mar 4, 2007 6:00pm
More than 250 pips in few minutes!!!!!
Sorry about my english...
  • #899
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:11pm Mar 4, 2007 6:11pm
Ha ha the Duke would be loving this.

Stops have at least 200 protected now. What a day.
  • #900
  • Mar 4, 2007 6:14pm Mar 4, 2007 6:14pm
+380 for me short at 226.46
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