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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #131,661
  • Nov 4, 2008 3:57pm Nov 4, 2008 3:57pm
An interesting confluence of support is at the low point (so far) of this retrace. The daily pivot point, the 38.2% retrace level, and the 1 hour 200ema / 4 hour 50ema are all within the 158.55 - 158.65 area.
  • #131,662
  • Nov 4, 2008 3:57pm Nov 4, 2008 3:57pm
Ok folks, heres my approach for GBPJPY in the coming hours and days.

Market started to price in the EUR&GBP rate cut last week and hence that massive drop which retraced itself kissing the78.6% mark. This has happened twice with GJ. News release to be aware of:

-Presidential election tongiht
-EUR&GBP rate decision thursday
-NFP friday

In the midst of all this volatility, I'm still on a short bias and will be looking for around a 15% GBP drop against the JPY midterm-wise. An interest rate cut, which seemingly served to the benefit of AUD and USD, will have a reverse affect on GBP&EUR in my opinion - why? Last GDP report for UK came out 0.5% -- what this this mean? Recession. US is on the brink and other countries are following suit but have not broken 0 and with JPY and USD being safe haven currencies - its not hard to lean towards a short bias.

To get the point, I'm short at 159.10 and will be pricing further shorts upon support breaks. Levels are at 158.55, 157.55, 156.55 and 150.40 - pretty straight forward.

TP: 143

What do you guys think?
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  • #131,663
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:16pm Nov 4, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting Kyen
Ok folks, heres my approach for GBPJPY in the coming hours and days.
...
What do you guys think?
I find cable gonna take off tomorow.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=150
  • #131,664
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:21pm Nov 4, 2008 4:21pm
Thanks!

Quoting Islander
Hi

The dashed lines are just levels that can be set from the MA itself - right click on the actual MA, or go to Indicators and open its Properties, select Levels and then add a level - on that chart they are + / - 150. This is an easy guide as to when price is overbought / oversold - research some history and find what you think is best - sometimes you might need to add a wider level - they are just an on chart ALERT, to draw your attention to an \"overstretched\" price that will sooner - or as with all indys - later(!) return to the norm - here the 34 ema.

Sweet Spots and Pivots are objective levels - i.e. made by fixed, widely known and used calculations - sometimes I use fibonacci retracements...
  • #131,665
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:29pm Nov 4, 2008 4:29pm
trying to break out of its downwardd channel, has done so on 5m, will see how 15m closes
  • #131,666
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:30pm Nov 4, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting Kyen
Ok folks, heres my approach for GBPJPY in the coming hours and days.

Market started to price in the EUR&GBP rate cut last week and hence that massive drop which retraced itself kissing the78.6% mark. This has happened twice with GJ. News release to be aware of:

-Presidential election tongiht
-EUR&GBP rate decision thursday
-NFP friday

In the midst of all this volatility, I'm still on a short bias and will be looking for around a 15% GBP drop against the JPY midterm-wise. An interest rate cut, which seemingly served to the benefit of AUD and USD, will have a reverse affect on GBP&EUR in my opinion - why? Last GDP report for UK came out 0.5% -- what this this mean?...

I agree ..... if 162,5 breaks all short best off table , other than that loaidng shorts on rallies and selling on dips..

I am still favouring day trading .,..lol ....

would rather make 40 pips a day every day and compound the account than 500 pips on a swng trade and bite my fingers to the bone and not sleep

might take me 3 years to make the 2 mil that lilmoe made in 1 year ...lol .... but at least it will be a lot less stress free
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #131,667
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:30pm Nov 4, 2008 4:30pm
Quoting 5ysfx
I find cable gonna take off tomorow.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=150
Shoot off as up shoot up or down? lol
  • #131,668
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:35pm Nov 4, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting Kyen
Shoot off as up shoot up or down? lol
I was a bit confused with that post ....

I think gbpusd goes down

USD gets stronger after elecation

GBP going to get more than .5% rate cut .. this is not factored in yet

also technicals say down
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #131,669
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:37pm Nov 4, 2008 4:37pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I was a bit confused with that post ....

I think gbpusd goes down

USD gets stronger after elecation

GBP going to get more than .5% rate cut .. this is not factored in yet

also technicals say down
This is what I think too.....
Patience + Discipline - Greed = Success
  • #131,670
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:41pm Nov 4, 2008 4:41pm
seems quiet.

still holding longs. i'm going to sleep now, be back later everyone.
  • #131,671
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:45pm Nov 4, 2008 4:45pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I was a bit confused with that post ....

I think gbpusd goes down

USD gets stronger after elecation

GBP going to get more than .5% rate cut .. this is not factored in yet

also technicals say down
i'm not sure how Mr. Malcomb the great knows some piece of info that market movers don't know of.

had to comment on this one before i go.
  • #131,672
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:50pm Nov 4, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting lilmoe
i'm not sure how Mr. Malcomb the great knows some piece of info that market movers don't know of.

had to comment on this one before i go.
speculation .... just like half your trades...
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #131,673
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:52pm Nov 4, 2008 4:52pm
I see the technicals pointing upwards for gbp/usd. Look at this 4 hour chart. We see the moms in agreement slightly bullish. We see the 5 sma close has crossed above the 5 sma open. The green 22 sma is above the brown 55 sma. Candlestick patterns shows a continuation upward. The green 22 sma has held as resistance 2 times. The 3rd attempt will break her and target the aqua colored 100 sma.
Wednesday is triple swap day.

The monthly chart one candle mom is pointing up and trying to break the 100 level which tells us that the pair will test the 5 sma channel by Thanksgiving, just as the geppy monthly chart shows us.
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  • #131,674
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:52pm Nov 4, 2008 4:52pm
Monthly mom is pointing up
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #131,675
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:59pm Nov 4, 2008 4:59pm
The monthly chart for usd/jpy is showing the one candle mom pointing up and it has broken the 100 level. We have agreement on the Geppy, Cable and usd/jpy.


My charts show things way before they happen, so I am giving you a heads up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #131,676
  • Nov 4, 2008 4:59pm Nov 4, 2008 4:59pm
currently flat BUT have the 5m range straddled so dont care where or when, only care how much. very slow so trader tricks are dangerous
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #131,677
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:02pm Nov 4, 2008 5:02pm
Quoting OrionsWay
currently flat BUT have the 5m range straddled so dont care where or when, only care how much. very slow so trader tricks are dangerous
What does Uranus tell us?
  • #131,678
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:10pm Nov 4, 2008 5:10pm
162 in a few hours or higher ?

malcolm ?
  • #131,679
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:12pm Nov 4, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting malcolmb14
I was a bit confused with that post ....

I think gbpusd goes down

USD gets stronger after elecation

GBP going to get more than .5% rate cut .. this is not factored in yet

also technicals say down
Malcomb, I couldn't agree with you more on that. If you ask me... 75bps is no problem whereas a reasonable target will be 100bps.
  • #131,680
  • Nov 4, 2008 5:14pm Nov 4, 2008 5:14pm
Quoting 5ysfx
162 in a few hours or higher ?

malcolm ?

no lets make it 180 ..... sounds more believeable ...lol
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
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