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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #741
  • Nov 1, 2008 2:49pm Nov 1, 2008 2:49pm
Quoting Rocroy
I agree, 149.7 perhaps ...
Is it possible that this wave can make a possible double bottom, and then go Up. the bounce is gonna be much harder.... I am not familiar with EW..but wondering if it can do a double bottom... without violating your EW theory...curios...
Markets are not Random, they are designed!
  • #742
  • Nov 2, 2008 7:30pm Nov 2, 2008 7:30pm
hi all,

Usdcad chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #743
  • Nov 3, 2008 11:44am Nov 3, 2008 11:44am
Hi all,

My Audusd chart.

Expecting down movement for wB around 0.635x range.
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  • #744
  • Nov 3, 2008 4:49pm Nov 3, 2008 4:49pm
Will we see Euro drop? Or stall until after the election?

http://vault.bz/up/chart/2008/11/eur-usd-nov3.jpg
  • #745
  • Nov 3, 2008 5:12pm Nov 3, 2008 5:12pm
Quoting Blue bottle
hi all, Usdcad chart.
Just wondering, if USD just had a week of correction in 3 waves, and it is anticipated that USD will gain strength Thursday after the GBP and EUR 50 bp rate cuts. Plus the after election boost. Then how do we explain CAD going so strongly the opposite way?

Perhaps we should consider an ALT count, with 3's down, as a possible continuation of CAD much higher? Just kicking it around, always like to consider the reasonable ALT counts.

When I stand back and look at CAD monthly or weekly, it looks like it has a wave.5 to complete large C up. THis correction may be a wave 4???? My 2 cents.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #746
  • Nov 3, 2008 6:06pm Nov 3, 2008 6:06pm
For some reason, I have a feeling that we are going to see our fair share of truncated fifths relatively soon.
  • #747
  • Nov 3, 2008 9:21pm Nov 3, 2008 9:21pm
This may be the current CAD wave count for the retracement. The diagonal triangle C in IV makes sense, the 3 wave movements are clear in places, nothing looks like an impulse. It would be terminal, and followed by a rocket north when it is complete, if this is the correct count.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #748
  • Nov 3, 2008 11:04pm Nov 3, 2008 11:04pm
Bit confused with EurUsd,

so i came up with 2 possible counts.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #749
  • Nov 4, 2008 12:41am Nov 4, 2008 12:41am
That leg of Eur/Usd is hard to count.

Sometimes the best thing is to treat it like a puzzle and work along the outer frame to put the pieces in that you recognize.

Another approach is to use trend lines and fibo - in this case BB you have the third leg, that turned at .786, which is triangle behavior. That was probably a C wave in triangle wave B, moving up now in triangle wave C.

I'll be glad when this week comes to an end, so the markets can be more lively and real.
  • #750
  • Nov 4, 2008 1:11am Nov 4, 2008 1:11am
Quoting FXoffshore
Will we see Euro drop? Or stall until after the election?

""There were several speculations that the dollar strength these weeks had to do with the elections and when the elections are over, the dollar will weaken once again to reflex the fundamentals.""

I read it somewhere.. It may push EURO higher against USD.

  • #751
  • Nov 4, 2008 1:24am Nov 4, 2008 1:24am
Quoting FXoffshore
That leg of Eur/Usd is hard to count.

Sometimes the best thing is to treat it like a puzzle and work along the outer frame to put the pieces in that you recognize.

Another approach is to use trend lines and fibo - in this case BB you have the third leg, that turned at .786, which is triangle behavior. That was probably a C wave in triangle wave B, moving up now in triangle wave C.

I'll be glad when this week comes to an end, so the markets can be more lively and real.

Thanks FXoffshore for sharing your knowledge, it surely helps.

Me too expecting good weeks after US election.
  • #752
  • Nov 4, 2008 1:32am Nov 4, 2008 1:32am
Hi guys,

Good thoughts you got there Blue bottle and FXoffshore. Looking at charts only (and ignoring elections which I know could set a new trend once they are done) it looks like we may have another high.
In my eyes the last leg up is impulsive and if it is true then we might have just reached the bottom for the 3-wave correction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 14 KB
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #753
  • Nov 4, 2008 9:08am Nov 4, 2008 9:08am
Quoting soso
Hi guys,

Good thoughts you got there Blue bottle and FXoffshore. Looking at charts only (and ignoring elections which I know could set a new trend once they are done) it looks like we may have another high.
In my eyes the last leg up is impulsive and if it is true then we might have just reached the bottom for the 3-wave correction.
I think it the best explanation of the market situation , thanks soso . Hope follow the market prices & if it the situation it will be similar in most pairs . lets see what happen .

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #754
  • Nov 4, 2008 2:06pm Nov 4, 2008 2:06pm
Quoting fontu
I think it the best explanation of the market situation , thanks soso . Hope follow the market prices & if it the situation it will be similar in most pairs . lets see what happen .

fontu
Well it looks like strength of the move makes it clearly an impulsive one so probabilities are still for the original assumption meaning that we can expecy a new high, most probabily unfolded as a 5-wave move - the move up today being wave 1.
So I would look for a long setup again once the price retraces more at least 50% of today's move and thus creating the wave 2.
Attached Image
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  • #755
  • Nov 4, 2008 2:21pm Nov 4, 2008 2:21pm
This is what I am watching lately...

P.S. FXoffshore and other experienced EW people what do you think about .786? It appeared yet again today, I never put much emphasis on it but seeing how price reacts lately near it I consider to upgrade its strengh in the future.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #756
  • Nov 4, 2008 2:46pm Nov 4, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting soso
Well it looks like strength of the move makes it clearly an impulsive one so probabilities are still for the original assumption meaning that we can expecy a new high, most probabily unfolded as a 5-wave move - the move up today being wave 1.
So I would look for a long setup again once the price retraces more at least 50% of today's move and thus creating the wave 2.
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
  • #757
  • Nov 4, 2008 3:25pm Nov 4, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
I am also inclined to think the same way. My view is that Wave B is still in progress and we will still see a down-move before price moves up again for Wave C.
Amor Fati--F. Nietzsche
  • #758
  • Nov 4, 2008 10:45pm Nov 4, 2008 10:45pm
.786 is common in triangles to have the right slope. It is more useful to me than .50, which is not a Fibo number. It can move up to about .80 and down several points without much concern. Keep in mind that wave structure is critically important, while fibo ratios are guidelines for tests and targets that work better on expansion than on retracement.
  • #759
  • Edited 11:20pm Nov 4, 2008 11:09pm | Edited 11:20pm
Quoting SunTrader
Clearly it was a big move today but put a ADX indicator on your chart and you'll see that trend strength is flat. IMO even though it appears to be impulsive it is really a correction or ABC off the lows from 10/28/08. I'll change opinion if it closes above (on 4h chart) 1.3125 area and continues higher.
I am considering this whole move up a correction. And we are in the 3rd wave of the correction which I expect it to be a 5 wave move thus impulsive. Maybe I should have been more clear of what impulses I was talking.

Later edit: Actually I am not sure if it is a larger correction or a short one (or the start of new long term trend up, yes this too), that is the reason it is noted with "i" rather than "1" or "a".
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
  • #760
  • Nov 4, 2008 11:23pm Nov 4, 2008 11:23pm
Quoting FXoffshore
.786 is common in triangles to have the right slope. It is more useful to me than .50, which is not a Fibo number. It can move up to about .80 and down several points without much concern. Keep in mind that wave structure is critically important, while fibo ratios are guidelines for tests and targets that work better on expansion than on retracement.
Thanks FXoffshore. Regarding .50, it is on my top of the list along with .62, I've seen too many .50 levels hold the price if not trully reverse it to ignore it. Like right now on EURUSD which stopped at .50. I guess in the end is a matter of taste and experience.
Will keep an eye for .786 for a while from now on...
Trading = a mirror to your human flaws. Fix them or be fixed.
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