The FXCapitalists Trading Logs

And it just broke, now it's all time to wait to see which direction it breaks through this sector....

sooner maybe than later? we'll see, adjusting stops accordingly.


ps. french consumer spending was better data than expected. worse housing starts though. russian financial names were front runners in push upwards supposedly.


more later.

the +39ADX reading insists a very strong uptrend we shall see where this leads in the next 3 hours.



One thing that's certain...is that there's nothing certain about the markets.


-FXC

Looks like it will break through this sector sooner than expected. time to set new targets then if that is so.


~1.5586 surely isn't out of the question within the next 3hrs and 15 minutes and 1.5645 is a possibility but a long shot from now.

Are my projected long term targets, if anything....

level 1.5645 will be hit by tomorrow afternoon 1515 EST.


more later.


that should be the peak or consolidation period before the fed funds decision weds afternoon.

New analyses comin' up soon hold up kids.


-fxc

where is this going... most likely up momentum hasn't quite dissipated from the upwards move quite yet...

I also trade live with FXSolutions but have never used FxAccuCharts. Will download and try and get familiar with them when I have the time.

In the meantime, what ADX setting are you using? I have never used the ADX very much, so I appreciate your analysis from time to time. Keep it up please. ( maybe I should reread Welles Wilders book, even if it was printed in 1978).

Yeah Wilder is a great person, maker of the RSI also, the ADX I use is default, just changed the color scheme to make it stand out more. I think accucharts is a bit stronger than MT4 when it comes to charting, it just doesn't have EA's and such. I'm used to it and it helps alot. I add the ADX and RSI in the same pane to see where the pair is clearly going. I just hide the RSI being drawn on top of the ADX I just keep the RSI # readings visible.

I'm currently reading a book on RSI Logic that i got from the traders expo last week and it opens your eyes up to something that seems so simple.

Gonna be busy with FX work and school for a while. Will reopen eventually.

Here's a screenshot Look at the gold counter by the current candle. that's the timer. Cheers

MTF

ownage

I think there's a good probability of a large drop soon due to PA with fibs, and RSI.

So the S&P drop happened about 1 day after the last post. Was good for about a 10% decline in the market (was that large or what?!). Based on my previous analysis and the daily candle closing below the 917 level, it was supposed to keep dropping. 1 hr charts show the intraday targets for Friday that failed to be met and the counter trendline that was broken at first, but price reversed with a double bottom. Keep in mind, there was extremely poor fundamental data on Friday. Daily RSI and 4 hr analysis also says it should've kept dropping some more.

Anyways, as traders, we can only react. Switch to 4 hr charts and what do we see unfolding? A beautiful head and shoulders pattern, so I think this is signaling bullishness in the next few weeks which will be the retracement into this downtrend.

Daily charts shows my projected targets (1115 - 1120). Trade is over with any daily closing below 895 and RSI below daily TL so I think pretty good R:R.

Bad call on the last trade. That's what I get for making a call against the trend. This week (and going forward) looks fairly easy to me.

Weekly - evening star - more wick than I'd like to see on bottom so I expect slight buying pressure that will be broken to the downside eventually.

Daily - RSI broken the TL, and we see that price is in the top LR channel, and is below our retracement fib levels and resistance fib levels. This means we're looking to short rallies. (3 tests on support and notice each bounce is less and less, so I expect the next test to break)

1 hr - IMO, wait for RSI to reach 60 levels and wait for an up bar and start shorting on up bars (up bars that makes sense though - past support now resistance, or fib levels from down swings), b/c it should drop. This clearly looks like bears are in control to me and 754 will be reached within the next few weeks.

Worst case scenario - this ranges between 1008 and 825, and my bais to the short side would only be swayed with a convincing bullish bar above 1008. Indecision candles is just a signal to short again in that area. So I would stay short and add to my shorts if it moved against me up to 1008 area because it should revisit the lows of 825 at least, but I think eventually heading to 754.

See how this one plays out.

Fibs work everywhere it seems and the target has been met. Anyways, that's the last posting I'll do in here as I don't want to clutter the capitalists journal more than I've done already. LOL. It's been fun though.

weekly

Ok I'm back after a while. I will go mostly off technicals here because I thrive in the technical style of trading. I will put in some fundamentals and reasons that could be the drivers of the pair. Anyways I entered early 1.3033 a couple days back just before Bernanke's talk of buying back Govt debt, and to my expected surprise Ben was able to move the FX markets again. Without a doubt he has to be the most powerful man in the world right now, if not one of the most powerful. Also that original position is up almost 700 pips. I trade h4 Inside Bar breaks to justify high probability entries. So I pyramided in 1.3537 playing that I would use free leverage to increase my returns. That position is currently up about 150 Pips as of writing. Trading IB's help me filter out entries, minimize over trading and exploit trends longer. I target PP's and MA's when entering IB breaks.

Another factor to consider is that I believe this is the eu's last ditch rally before the Fed starts to hike. So I will take this up to as high as I can. though currently in the h4 a divergence might be forming with the RSI but I need a few more hours of data to complete my observation. It's currently forming a small shooting star after failing to break to the upside, I already got in early with a short EU position due to a downward break at an earlier IB, I will hold until price either breaks up even higher thus knocking me out of position or tank hard and I profit by closing out my longs by moving both their stops and letting the short position run due to the fact I would have gotten it at a peak of price and I will have my stop above there. If this counter short fails then my 2 profitable longs will resume in makin money and make this counter trend play a thing of the past.

Now with the D1 charts. I see a possible IB on the dalies if price keeps this up. Currently it looks like a doji is forming or a spinning top. These are occuring right at the 200 Daily EMA and it looks as if price will either fail at the 200 or resume and punch right up and keep on moving. If that's the case I will project new targets.

Targets are 1.40xx~ give or take + all the pivot points can be used as targets.

This is it for now, More thoughts later.

Best Regards

-FXC

All positions and will re establish next week when price corrects or resumes its uptrend

Time to revive.

Couple of years no see. Forums are alive and strong. FXSol died, moved all capital before the death though. Oanda is the new broker, Can't be happier. Markets changed and so have my strategies. 50:1 leverage now down from my 100:1, still doable. Where has everyone gone?

Go with me working on the next 100k.

~FXC

More as time brings.