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95% failure rate?

  • #41
  • Oct 31, 2008 1:03am Oct 31, 2008 1:03am
Quoting im7i4z
In a zero sum game where skill is required, eventually the entire sum will accumulate in the hands of few.
I'm working on it.

As for the Chinese take on it; I believe it. I've had enough miller to know to not to get into a diatribe on cultural and economic differences between our two cultures, so I'll leave it alone, but I still have no surprise at the news of the Chinese decision.
Never underestimate the powers of the Force.
  • #42
  • Oct 31, 2008 2:26am Oct 31, 2008 2:26am
Quoting Trader KGB
There have been a few actual studies released over the years that confirmed the 80-95% failure rate....
i know there are many offshore hedge fund company located in cyprus or some island, they do trade forex in large volume. in fact, some company dare to offer guaranteed return in some of their fund, but its require at least 25 million to get in.
  • #43
  • Oct 31, 2008 2:29am Oct 31, 2008 2:29am
Quoting everyonerich
i know there are many offshore hedge fund company located in cyprus or some island, they do trade forex in large volume. in fact, some company dare to offer guaranteed return in some of their fund, but its require at least 25 million to get in.
What does that have to do with my quote? 'Guaranteed return', do you realize what a joke that is? 'Some island', wow..
  • #44
  • Oct 31, 2008 2:37am Oct 31, 2008 2:37am
Quoting Trader KGB
What does that have to do with my quote? 'Guaranteed return', do you realize what a joke that is? 'Some island', wow..
i know one of the trader which hes trading from there, thats where i know it from
  • #45
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:00am Oct 31, 2008 3:00am
Quoting everyonerich
i know one of the trader which hes trading from there, thats where i know it from
Fantastic. Do you have anything on-topic to add to the discussion?
  • #46
  • Oct 31, 2008 3:39am Oct 31, 2008 3:39am
Quoting Trader KGB
There have been a few actual studies released over the years that confirmed the 80-95% failure rate. I believe the most recent was done by an accounting firm analyzing the tax returns of all of their trader clients. Alas, I don't have the link handy (I've posted it before, so if you search long enough, it should come up).

It should also be noted that over the summer, the Chinese gov't banned retail forex trading. Their reason for doing so was b/c in their own analysis of the Chinese forex retail venues, they found that >80% of clients were net losers. Thus, in the best interests of the public, they defined it as gambling and outlawed forex trading. Interesting to say the least. Here's...
Dear friends:
I did not know this news, i am in china. i am still trading, because i am on the way to profit.
just like stock, how many people can eventually make profit?i do not think it is gambler.
the government will profit since the bank profit greatly, i do not think the government with a human brain will banned it.
regards
I need time ,I need money, I need more patience
  • #47
  • Oct 31, 2008 4:54am Oct 31, 2008 4:54am
Quoting everyonerich
i know there are many offshore hedge fund company located in cyprus or some island, they do trade forex in large volume. in fact, some company dare to offer guaranteed return in some of their fund, but its require at least 25 million to get in.
everyonerich,

guranteed? suggest why don't you open a thread here so that everybody want to chip in can do that as I maybe want to be among the first. hehe no heart feeling, just my bad joke. because i think if you give guaranteed in this business, you better have god damn good lawyer.

regards.

G33maroon

p/s:dont you guys bored discussing this over and over again?
I am bored..
  • #48
  • Oct 31, 2008 5:13am Oct 31, 2008 5:13am
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Sorry, not a chance in hell that the 95% that loose are the movers of the market. The long time winners have more capital and theirfore influence the market more. What your saying is that a trend exists because a bunch of loosers got the direction wrong? mmh.

Please dont talk asif you know what your saying, that was a stupid comment.
I dont know much, but I know by only utilising a little common sence that your post is garbage, sir.

Leon
actually what i was trying to say is exactly the opposite of what you've understood, people doesnt lose because of picking the wrong direction, what i was trying to say is that people lose because of their poor money management, btw, its 62 Trillion market, do you really believe that 5% of traders hold that biggest part of that money? lol !
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #49
  • Oct 31, 2008 11:46am Oct 31, 2008 11:46am
Quoting Obaidah
actually what i was trying to say is exactly the opposite of what you've understood, people doesnt lose because of picking the wrong direction, what i was trying to say is that people lose because of their poor money management, btw, its 62 Trillion market, do you really believe that 5% of traders hold that biggest part of that money? lol !
Yes, I beleive the average single trader in the 5% has more capital than the average single trader in the 95%, whats wrong with that theory?

Please elaborate on the following comment you made:

'people doesnt lose because of picking the wrong direction'

Leon
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #50
  • Oct 31, 2008 5:24pm Oct 31, 2008 5:24pm
Quoting Leonlorenzo
Yes, I beleive the average single trader in the 5% has more capital than the average single trader in the 95%, whats wrong with that theory?

Please elaborate on the following comment you made:

'people doesnt lose because of picking the wrong direction'

Leon
well, i didnt say that the average trader of those 5% has less than the average one of those 95% losing traders, i said that all those 5% together dont hold as much as the rest 95% hold, anyway im not going to argue with you about that because i dont have a proof.

about that comment, not a disrespect but maybe its that you're a profitable trader, just want to feel that you're so different and special because there's only 5% take profits, or you're of losing traders and trying to blame "big dogs" for that.

im so sure you have studied statistics at school or university right?, however, the following is a mathematical/statistical fact,

take a pen, paper and print any pair(s) tick chart, make a calculation on 50 RANDOM entries on RANDOM pairs to calculate the chances to determine winning/losing trades assuming that the trader doesnt follow neither technicals nor fundamentals, the more entries you take the more you'll approach to 50% of good trades and 50% of bad trades, now once again, on the same number of entries, calculate the chances for it to go 30 pips against you and 70 pips with you (so its a losing trade once it goes 30 pips and a winning trade once it goes 70 pips with you), the WORST result you'll have is approx. 70% goes against you and 30% with you,

out of 10 trades, losing trades = 30*7=210 and winning trades = 70*3= 210.

hope it helps because im not sure i'll have enough time to check this discussion threat any more but i really wish you do that calculation.

Regards.
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #51
  • Oct 31, 2008 7:58pm Oct 31, 2008 7:58pm
Quoting Obaidah
well, i didnt say that the average trader of those 5% has less than the average one of those 95% losing traders, i said that all those 5% together dont hold as much as the rest 95% hold, anyway im not going to argue with you about that because i dont have a proof.

about that comment, not a disrespect but maybe its that you're a profitable trader, just want to feel that you're so different and special because there's only 5% take profits, or you're of losing traders and trying to blame \"big dogs\" for that.

im so sure you have studied statistics at school or university right?, however, the following is a mathematical/statistical fact,

take a pen, paper and print any pair(s) tick chart,...
I dont have a clue what this has to do with anything ive said.
Living the adventure in my head.
  • #52
  • Oct 31, 2008 10:33pm Oct 31, 2008 10:33pm
95% of the time 95% of the traders are at a 95% stress level because they are worried that there is a 95% chance that they might be part of the 95% of traders who lose 100% of there trading account 95 times out of 100.


the 95 per cent mentality is like a cancer

the 5 per cent mentaltiy is like nitrous oxide

whoooosh
  • #53
  • Nov 1, 2008 3:27am Nov 1, 2008 3:27am
Trading is a business just like any other, with the same success, failure, closure, sold on rate.
90% of all businesses, at the end of the first five years, will no longer be operating.
Of the 10% remaining, 90% of those businesses, will no longer be operating, at the end of 10 years.
Over a 10 year period 99% of ALL businesses no longer be operating.
Being in business is about managing the current disaster whilst having a contingency plan for the disaster that is about to happen.
The oft quoted 95% is an understatement.
Only 1% ever really make it weather its trading or shoe polishing.

If you want safety, be an employee, make money for someone else, have no prospects & get retrenched.
If you dont have natural talent, work hard at developing your skills, there is no free ride.

Peter
  • #54
  • Nov 1, 2008 4:08am Nov 1, 2008 4:08am
If you want to be in the 5% that make it, here is the answer....



















http://judyoz.com/media/ccp0/prodlg/the%20secret.jpg
  • #55
  • Nov 1, 2008 11:07am Nov 1, 2008 11:07am
Quoting Obaidah
hope it helps because im not sure i'll have enough time to check this discussion threat any more but i really wish you do that calculation.

Regards.
Do you really think that all the institutions haven't done your simple math? Do you really think that an institution that moves billions of dollars per year through the forex market hasn't got some world-class mathematicians working for them? And I mean world-class, the best of the best because they'll pay them $500,000 a year if they're good at it. That's a far cry from the 60k they'd make at a university.

There are lots of guys who get into trading thinking they only have to crack the math and they've got it made. It just doesn't work that way. If it did, the markets would be so efficient, because of the logic of math, that there would be minimal opportunities to trade. Iow, there would be almost zero volatility.

I'm not saying it's not a good thing to be logical, if only 50% of the human race was logical, the world would be a much better place. But we aren't logical and neither are the markets.

If you want to have some serious discussions about the math, talk to Tdion or Hanover. They're both sharp guys who are also searching for the answer through math.

For those of us who have been at this for some time, we know that rationality doesn't always prevail in the markets.

Are you an engineer, by any chance?

Oh and btw, if you're counting traders in your 95/5% dichotomy, then consider how much money Deutschebank moves in the Forex market. They're THE preeminent bank in the market. How many traders do they have? 100? 300? Yet they're pushing more money than all the independent traders in the world combined through the market. Granted they're doing it for customers, but it's still their guys doing the buying and selling.
  • #56
  • Nov 1, 2008 11:27am Nov 1, 2008 11:27am
Quoting Niandra_lade
If you want to be in the 5% that make it, here is the answer....



















http://judyoz.com/media/ccp0/prodlg/the%20secret.jpg

so we can succeed in forex by just thinking "I want to succeed" hard enough and it will happen?

are you in the 5% now?
  • #57
  • Nov 1, 2008 12:01pm Nov 1, 2008 12:01pm
Quoting KudzuFX
so we can succeed in forex by just thinking \"I want to succeed\" hard enough and it will happen?

are you in the 5% now?
You'd be amazed how far a person can get just by having the right mind-set.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #58
  • Nov 1, 2008 12:27pm Nov 1, 2008 12:27pm
What I want to know is what kind of people/traders made up the 100% because without knowing that, the results aren't particularly scientific and therefore can't really mean very much.

And who carried out this survey anyway, and where are their findings published?

Sounds like a made-up number to me, or maybe they (whoever they are) did a rough calculation using FF members as a cross-section? No that can't be right, 95% of people here say they're winners not losers!
  • #59
  • Nov 1, 2008 12:29pm Nov 1, 2008 12:29pm
Quoting aediaz1
You'd be amazed how far a person can get just by having the right mind-set.

are you the 5% yet?



.
  • #60
  • Nov 1, 2008 12:42pm Nov 1, 2008 12:42pm
Quoting slippery

Over a 10 year period 99% of ALL businesses no longer be operating.
Being in business is about managing the current disaster whilst having a contingency plan for the disaster that is about to happen.
The oft quoted 95% is an understatement.
Only 1% ever really make it weather its trading or shoe polishing.

If you want safety, be an employee, make money for someone else, have no prospects & get retrenched.
If you dont have natural talent, work hard at developing your skills, there is no free ride.

Peter
Well you're a regular little ray of sunshine aren't you! Failures, disasters, no prospects, doom and gloom.....

I'm not sure where you got your stats from, 99% out of business within 10 years sounds a bit high to me, and I'm pretty sure being successful in business is about more than managing disasters!
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