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Today's news - I don't get it!

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 1, 2007 7:49am Mar 1, 2007 7:49am
I am not really a news trader but are usually at the screen for major news and sometimes try to trade these, but is it just my untrained perception or had news trading become more difficult recently? What I mean is there seem to be less preditable moves such as today when many were waiting for direction on GBP/USD and we had UK - news plus $+ news and nothing happens!

Any ideas why that is?
Consistency and patience is everything
  • #2
  • Mar 1, 2007 8:02am Mar 1, 2007 8:02am
I just don't get it

US news came out very dollar positive, but instead of falling (GBD/USD), it rallied????

What is going on?

It's just not possible to trade news anymore.
  • #3
  • Mar 1, 2007 8:46am Mar 1, 2007 8:46am
News trading has always been about what the reaction to the news is and not about what the news itself is.

You can always jump in ahead and guess which way it will go or better yet wait and see and then join in.
  • #4
  • Mar 1, 2007 8:59am Mar 1, 2007 8:59am
The carry trade is in the process of unwinding and your trading new reports? What did you expect to happen?
  • #5
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:10am Mar 1, 2007 9:10am
Quoting Darkstar
The carry trade is in the process of unwinding and your trading new reports? What did you expect to happen?
Stocks falling.
Try to wait for first sign of the stock reverse on both side of the Atlantic.
USD or Eur will then move up again. My speculation.
  • #6
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:16am Mar 1, 2007 9:16am
News comes out often...but not all of them move the market......all of the time.....for instance sometimes U get news which is very dollar positive but the market would have little reaction to it.....but this same report may move it by over 100 pips the next month....so there really is no hard and fast rule..


Not sure what the UK numbers were but I saw that it didn't move the market with in the first minute or so.....so crashed back into my pillow...as for dollar positive news I think U are probably meaning the Core Number that came out better than expectations by .1% for the US..........its a touch an go probably not enough to really move...

And the just released ISM.......Well....it came out way better than expected...U could have made a few pips with in the short period of seconds...but nothing to write home about I guess...

Thats just it with newstrading...its not something that will happen all the time....its good to know...but nothing really to rely on to make constant pips....its just one of those things u have in your trading arsenal to use if the opportunity allowes
  • #7
  • Mar 1, 2007 9:25am Mar 1, 2007 9:25am
Hear the ISM was double positive for the dollar.

I forgot the rule I keep seeing every month. No news is dollar positive, only dollar negative. Not only will these frustrate me by giving back all gains, but if it was dollar negative, this would be flying right now.
  • #8
  • Mar 1, 2007 10:08am Mar 1, 2007 10:08am
expecting a logical market reaction to news is very naive. just doesnt work like that, never has.

instead of taking the arbitrary logic in our head and forcing it upon the market, we should be listening to what the market is saying and forcing it upon our trade decisions. if you know how to listen correctly, the market can tell you a lot during news releases.
Relax and be happy.
  • #9
  • Mar 1, 2007 11:33am Mar 1, 2007 11:33am
As time goes by, I use more and more TA but news tradeing is still giving me about 50% of my income.
  • #10
  • Mar 1, 2007 1:15pm Mar 1, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting merlin
expecting a logical market reaction to news is very naive. just doesnt work like that, never has.

instead of taking the arbitrary logic in our head and forcing it upon the market, we should be listening to what the market is saying and forcing it upon our trade decisions. if you know how to listen correctly, the market can tell you a lot during news releases.
How true!

Expecting the market to do this or that is a total nonsense.

To all the news traders out there, don't debate with the market, just FOLLOW it.
  • #11
  • Mar 1, 2007 1:17pm Mar 1, 2007 1:17pm
Some advice; news trading is almost never about the news i.e. any one thing. It's about everything else that's going on. News doesn't even equal volatilty anymore.
  • #12
  • Mar 1, 2007 1:40pm Mar 1, 2007 1:40pm
Quoting faure
News doesn't even equal volatilty anymore.
Really? Any proof to support your statement ?
  • #13
  • Mar 1, 2007 2:14pm Mar 1, 2007 2:14pm
I happen to agree. As far as proof - no just my opinion. Which after all is really what the markets come down to. The current market consensus of opinions on a given currency/commodity/equity.
  • #14
  • Mar 1, 2007 3:44pm Mar 1, 2007 3:44pm
Quoting FXTerminator
Really? Any proof to support your statement ?
If you looked at a 4hour gbpusd chart would you be able to tell the ISM numbers came out today? The volatilty we saw on today's release wasn't dissimilar to the previous few days despite the ISM historically being a big mover.
  • #15
  • Mar 16, 2007 8:01am Mar 16, 2007 8:01am
Johnnie come lately answer...just read this. Why mkt. goes inspite of news? See my other posts under EUR/$. the mkt has a mind of its own...the mind of the bank manipulators. The Mkt is not random. The mkt is rigged. good example of it. Why so many news releases/speakers/delay reporting/erroneous reports/correction/accumulated corrections of over 6 to 8 prior months as recently happened/change of reporting dates/plunge protection team? Yea!/raising/lower rates/china rumors/russia rumors/etc. YOU SAy RANDOM, HUH? FOR YOUR TECH STUFF TO WORK, YOU NEED RANDOMNESS. WON'T HAPPEN & YOUR TECH WILL FAIL>
  • #16
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:52am Mar 16, 2007 9:52am
Quoting Darkstar
The carry trade is in the process of unwinding and your trading new reports? What did you expect to happen?
Highly disagree. No Carry Trades unwinding so far. Recent gains in Yen Pairs came due to accounting measures.

Today's CPI news was relatively unspectacular. A downwards revision to -0.3 % explains why a 1% rise did not move the USD that much.

At the moment we see the market ... well ... waiting.

Nobody knows where the market is heading at the moment.
What do we expect from
China - Rate hikes, other forms of money
supply tightening, more pressure on banks etc.
Japan - Rate hikes, end of deflation
AND for both countries
We don't know when they will cash in their securities
UK - End of the rate hike cycle. reals estate bubble burst
and most importantly

The US - Most probably RECESSION, end of growth,
unemployment, real estate bubble burst, sub prime bubble
burst, GDP growth below 2%, inflationary pressure still in
place, Iraq, Oil and so fort

So for todays, CPI numbers. Although one might think, that they are USD positive, if you look again you will see that after a -0.3% dip instead of a .3% rise, this is a -0.6%. If then CPI rises 1% that will not quite cover the decrease.

On the other hand, a 1% increase in CPI means that inflationary pressure is still there. But with a weak economy and already high interest rates .... well that is a bad mixture for the USD. BNP Paribas estimates 1.40 on the Euro for Q4 07.

/Juao
  • #17
  • Mar 16, 2007 9:57am Mar 16, 2007 9:57am
J,

I don't know, I think there has been some unwinding of the carry trades...I don't think there was full liquidation, but I do believe that a large enough portion of the Yen drop was due largely in part to (at least the concern of) the Carry Trade unwinding.

Quoting juao
Highly disagree. No Carry Trades unwinding so far. Recent gains in Yen Pairs came due to accounting measures.

Today's CPI news was relatively unspectacular. A downwards revision to -0.3 % explains why a 1% rise did not move the USD that much.

At the moment we see the market ... well ... waiting.

Nobody knows where the market is heading at the moment.
What do we expect from
China - Rate hikes, other forms of money
supply tightening, more pressure on banks etc.
Japan - Rate hikes, end of deflation
AND for both countries
We don't know when they will cash in their securities
UK - End of the rate hike cycle. reals estate bubble burst
and most importantly

The US - Most probably RECESSION, end of growth,
unemployment, real estate bubble burst, sub prime bubble
burst, GDP growth below 2%, inflationary pressure still in
place, Iraq, Oil and so fort

So for todays, CPI numbers. Although one might think, that they are USD positive, if you look again you will see that after a -0.3% dip instead of a .3% rise, this is a -0.6%. If then CPI rises 1% that will not quite cover the decrease.

On the other hand, a 1% increase in CPI means that inflationary pressure is still there. But with a weak economy and already high interest rates .... well that is a bad mixture for the USD. BNP Paribas estimates 1.40 on the Euro for Q4 07.

/Juao
  • #18
  • Mar 16, 2007 10:07am Mar 16, 2007 10:07am
Quoting jose
Johnnie come lately answer... YOU SAy RANDOM, HUH? FOR YOUR TECH STUFF TO WORK, YOU NEED RANDOMNESS. WON'T HAPPEN & YOUR TECH WILL FAIL>
I don't really rely on techs but as far as I know for techs to work, the market has to be non-random ie. exploiting patterns that repeat themselves in price action. It seems to me you have a really huge ego.
  • #19
  • Mar 16, 2007 10:34am Mar 16, 2007 10:34am
Quoting juao
Highly disagree. No Carry Trades unwinding so far. Recent gains in Yen Pairs came due to accounting measures.

Today's CPI news was relatively unspectacular. A downwards revision to -0.3 % explains why a 1% rise did not move the USD that much.

At the moment we see the market ... well ... waiting.

Nobody knows where the market is heading at the moment.
What do we expect from
China - Rate hikes, other forms of money
supply tightening, more pressure on banks etc.
Japan - Rate hikes, end of deflation
AND for both countries
We don't know when they will cash in their securities
UK - End of the rate hike cycle. reals estate bubble burst
and most importantly

The US - Most probably RECESSION, end of growth,
unemployment, real estate bubble burst, sub prime bubble
burst, GDP growth below 2%, inflationary pressure still in
place, Iraq, Oil and so fort

So for todays, CPI numbers. Although one might think, that they are USD positive, if you look again you will see that after a -0.3% dip instead of a .3% rise, this is a -0.6%. If then CPI rises 1% that will not quite cover the decrease.

On the other hand, a 1% increase in CPI means that inflationary pressure is still there. But with a weak economy and already high interest rates .... well that is a bad mixture for the USD. BNP Paribas estimates 1.40 on the Euro for Q4 07.

/Juao
Reason for Recession?
  • #20
  • Mar 16, 2007 11:17am Mar 16, 2007 11:17am
Quoting Brurex
Reason for Recession?
inverted yield curve. reason for that ?

there are tons of reasons. I don't want to upset anyone and since I know, that the majority of the forum's readers are Americans, I will not go into details, since this could cause upset people. That, I don't want.

At the moment there is a 50% chance for a recession in Q4 based on Mishkin's yield curve theory.
If you promise hat you will not take it personal, I will share my thoughts.


/Juao
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