DislikedYou'll be caught off guard one day when a surprise news event comes out. Priced in markets are a fact - that is fundamentals. Markets factored that UK, EU will cut rates - so the EU/GU slide began some time ago. The actual event makes no difference if it comes out exactly as planned.
Why would anything spike based on the rate decision yesterday? It came out exactly 50 bps as markets had expected. If there was a shift - say, 100 bps .. you're telling me there would have been no move?
I've been around these forums long enough.. I remember once when everyone was short.. and the Feds announced a surprise cut (no meeting was planned, nothing) shorts went out the window - had a nice 800+ pip...Ignored
you cannot trade the unexpected. I use volume spread analysis .. the volume ., or lack thereof sometimes will tell you what is about to happen. I typically make it a point not to be in the market around major market news like interest rates . i do howver sometimes get in after the news as it provides great oppertunities for the pros to play their games .... large volume wide spread spikes are often great to short or go long on reversals
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