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Majors & Exotics [EUR / GBP / JPY / CAD / AUD]

  • #281
  • Oct 7, 2008 8:43pm Oct 7, 2008 8:43pm
Quoting preneur
DOW below 9500 mark

The precipitous demise of the global financial markets continue. The DOW Jones Index is below the 9500 mark as of today's close. The next move will be to 9000, which is the last stop before the shoot down to 7000 - 7500. When could it happen? I believe that it will happen 2009-2012 time window. The combinatorial global central bank interventions will, one more time, disguise the reality for a short period. Then... the reality.
we have a massive divergence on daily dow chart, dont you think that we might see 10800 in the comming weeks?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #282
  • Oct 8, 2008 4:12am Oct 8, 2008 4:12am
Quoting Obaidah
hey, its been a while
Yes, was out for a 10 day vacation. Should be around now
  • #283
  • Oct 8, 2008 4:38am Oct 8, 2008 4:38am
Quoting Obaidah
we have a massive divergence on daily dow chart, dont you think that we might see 10800 in the comming weeks?

I was expecting for 9000 to hold, for a little while, then an extended shoot down towards 7000 - 7500. However, given the accelerating public awareness, there could be several runs to institutions, which would ultimately push DOW down immediately. (Even in a short term recovery, 11K looks very far away)
  • #284
  • Oct 16, 2008 2:05am Oct 16, 2008 2:05am
another vacation?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #285
  • Oct 24, 2008 7:36am Oct 24, 2008 7:36am
Quoting Obaidah
another vacation?

Hehe, lol; huge volatility eats my time. I'll try to post occasionally; should be able to post more often after the elections are over; volatility could decrease then, probable ? lol

How are you doing?
  • #286
  • Oct 24, 2008 8:00pm Oct 24, 2008 8:00pm
Quoting preneur
Hehe, lol; huge volatility eats my time. I'll try to post occasionally; should be able to post more often after the elections are over; volatility could decrease then, probable ? lol

How are you doing?
yea yea! i turned to scapler because of this volatility, scapling gbpjpy seems to be better than a long term positions in eurusd, just missed your fundamental analysis, i hope things are going good with you, good luck..
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #287
  • Oct 27, 2008 1:44pm Oct 27, 2008 1:44pm
Just heads up on US/CAD pair, seems like its getting ready to fall for a nice retrace. Bearish divergence on 1H and 4H.
  • #288
  • Oct 27, 2008 2:50pm Oct 27, 2008 2:50pm
The U.S. dollar and yen rallied on Monday as plunging stock markets and fears of global recession prompted investors to abandon risky trades and seek shelter in those currencies. The yen hovered near 13-year peaks against the dollar and rose to its highest since May 2002 versus the euro despite a statement of concern by finance officials from the Group of Seven major industrial nations about excessive volatility in the Japanese currency.


Check this:
http://hubpages.com/hub/Todays-Crisis?done
  • #289
  • Oct 28, 2008 4:45pm Oct 28, 2008 4:45pm
Inflation ahead, BIG inflation

All the pumping process beginning to look like its done the magic; for now... The DOW held the LAST resistance area of 7500-8000, tested and tested it.

It definitely looks like, as soon as the system starts ticking again, get ready for the same old story:

USD losing value, Gold going up, Oil going up

Except, one difference;

This move will be MUCH higher, MUCH more inflationary
  • #290
  • Oct 28, 2008 7:31pm Oct 28, 2008 7:31pm
Preneur,

I have been looking in here from time to time, and I have to say, you know your stuff. My hat is off to you. (don't mind the balding).
When you said this: This move will be MUCH higher, MUCH more inflationary
Are you talking about the DOW going higher than before? or, when it crashes, it will be harder (lower than before).

Anyway, GLT and keep up the good work

fxst
  • #291
  • Oct 29, 2008 4:30am Oct 29, 2008 4:30am
Quoting preneur
Inflation ahead, BIG inflation

All the pumping process beginning to look like its done the magic; for now... The DOW held the LAST resistance area of 7500-8000, tested and tested it.

It definitely looks like, as soon as the system starts ticking again, get ready for the same old story:

USD losing value, Gold going up, Oil going up

Except, one difference;

This move will be MUCH higher, MUCH more inflationary
welcome back
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #292
  • Oct 29, 2008 12:48pm Oct 29, 2008 12:48pm
Quoting Obaidah
welcome back
Thanks Obaidah
  • #293
  • Oct 29, 2008 12:51pm Oct 29, 2008 12:51pm
Quoting fxstman
Preneur,

I have been looking in here from time to time, and I have to say, you know your stuff. My hat is off to you. (don't mind the balding).
When you said this: This move will be MUCH higher, MUCH more inflationary
Are you talking about the DOW going higher than before? or, when it crashes, it will be harder (lower than before).

Anyway, GLT and keep up the good work

fxst

Thanks for your kind words fxst.

I believe we will be in a sideways market for the bourses; DOW swinging, say, between 10K and 7500 for some time. Going up to 10K, than coming down again, then going up... I think marking a low and stabilizing above it is enough to get the money flowing into the commodities.

Expect inflation to pick up and commodities to move higher.
  • #294
  • Oct 29, 2008 5:15pm Oct 29, 2008 5:15pm
Quoting preneur
Thanks for your kind words fxst.

I believe we will be in a sideways market for the bourses; DOW swinging, say, between 10K and 7500 for some time. Going up to 10K, than coming down again, then going up... I think marking a low and stabilizing above it is enough to get the money flowing into the commodities.

Expect inflation to pick up and commodities to move higher.
Thanks for the reply, as you can tell, I'm still learning, so I hope you don't mind me asking so much. I was wondering if commodities go up, how will that effect the currency market? I ask because I hear that hedge funds, and other things, effect the market.
Thanks in advance,
GLT fxst
  • #295
  • Oct 29, 2008 5:27pm Oct 29, 2008 5:27pm
Today is a classic example of what i think we'll be seeing for some time going into the future: Up-down swings between 7500 - 10K in DOW:

http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/11...ute-plunge.gif
  • #296
  • Oct 29, 2008 5:30pm Oct 29, 2008 5:30pm
Quoting fxstman
Thanks for the reply, as you can tell, I'm still learning, so I hope you don't mind me asking so much. I was wondering if commodities go up, how will that effect the currency market? I ask because I hear that hedge funds, and other things, effect the market.
Thanks in advance,
GLT fxst

If we see stabilizing markets, which i am more inclined towards, (7500 is crucial in DOW; failure will see HUGE down moves) we'll start to see that the old wheel starts turning again, and US dollar sliding, EUR moving higher against dollar, Gold, Oil, Wheat, Corn, Rice, ... going higher. The precondition is to see the market stabilization.
  • #297
  • Oct 30, 2008 6:37am Oct 30, 2008 6:37am
do you think BoJ is going to leave the poor yen for traders to decide its value?
I recommend you read something else as this sentence is now concluded.
  • #298
  • Oct 30, 2008 6:50am Oct 30, 2008 6:50am
Quoting preneur
If we see stabilizing markets, which i am more inclined towards, (7500 is crucial in DOW; failure will see HUGE down moves) we'll start to see that the old wheel starts turning again, and US dollar sliding, EUR moving higher against dollar, Gold, Oil, Wheat, Corn, Rice, ... going higher. The precondition is to see the market stabilization.
Thanks for the reply and taking the time to explain. Good Luck Trading, and keep up the good work

fxst
  • #299
  • Nov 10, 2008 7:10am Nov 10, 2008 7:10am
Update & tomorrow's ZEW:

I believe USD is topping, and 1.20-1.25 area will coincide with Dow's 7500 - 10K mark. This doesn't mean that one should right away sell all $ of course, as EU region doesn't look better, as well.

The ZEW worst readings since last couple of years came in July '08 and October '08, around -63 level. The trend is obviously down; one should seek a bottom in EU region as well, before a sustainable rally in the EUR/USD. I expect the outcome to be lower than -63 tomorrow, which could drive EUR/USD down to 1.25 area again; but I highly believe that EUR/USD will bottom around 1.20-1.25 area. Trend of ZEW index:

http://www.macropreneur.com/data/ima..._zew_nov08.jpg
  • #300
  • Nov 13, 2008 4:16pm Nov 13, 2008 4:16pm
Update:

The ZEW announcement this week was better than expected, but was still below the -50 mark, hence, as expected prior to the announcement, drove the EUR/USD to 1.25 and below.

BUT

As I am trying to asses the outcomes, I highly believe that EUR will BOTTOM around 1.20-1.25.

Today saw a very sharp jump, following the budget announcement. It looks lie the EUR/USD will be in a range like we had been saying for the DOW (7500 - 10K). Eur/Usd is expected to be in range of 1.20-1.25/1.40-1.45 as this dust settles.

We would NEED to fall below 7500 mark in DOW for the Usd to push the Eur/Usd pair below the 1.20 mark, which is not seen since mid 2005s.
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