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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #721
  • Feb 28, 2007 6:10pm Feb 28, 2007 6:10pm
how about up.

Quoting trader8686
Now that we broke this resistance 232.99. Any suggestion from here?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #722
  • Edited 6:18pm Feb 28, 2007 6:12pm | Edited 6:18pm
my question is where do you see that it broke 232.99 ? --->just saw it sorry

i didnt see it perhaps im wrong. still waiting..long is ok for catching some pips I think but do not now whats gonna happen at news release "soon"


dont know how to put the chart in here
  • #723
  • Feb 28, 2007 6:20pm Feb 28, 2007 6:20pm
Price is 233.13, currently in a dip and has just been as high as 233.49.

To post a chart, save it to your desktop, look below the message window to where it says manage attachments, then enter it in the window which appears by browsing your desktop, uploading it and sending it.
  • #724
  • Feb 28, 2007 6:32pm Feb 28, 2007 6:32pm
Quoting moonchild
I would like nothing better than to see this pair go to 241.

Realistically, there is an old support from last week around 233.70-80 which might act as a resistance stopping further upward movement or at least temporarily stalling it.

My opinions are not worth much to anyone except me since I use them to trade my live account.
Thanks for responding.
I wish I am able to tell like : there is an old support from last week around 233.70-80.
Can you educate me or explain to me on that?
  • #725
  • Feb 28, 2007 6:41pm Feb 28, 2007 6:41pm
Quoting trader8686
Thanks for responding.
I wish I am able to tell like : there is an old support from last week around 233.70-80.
Can you educate me or explain to me on that?
Support and resistance refer to areas where a pair has difficulty getting past so that it stalls there or turns around there. Support refers to areas preventing the pair from going down and resistance refers to areas preventing a pair from going up.

In practice an area which has once been support can become resistance in the future and vice versa.

If you look at the chart I posted, you will see that this area has been both support and resistance repeatedly on the 4H chart last week between the 15th and 21st. Excuse the small size of the chart, but I could not get it all in if I enlarged it.

If we get sufficient momentum, this area will not be a problem, also it may only delay our upward movement, or if we are very unlucky, we will turn around there.
  • #726
  • Feb 28, 2007 6:45pm Feb 28, 2007 6:45pm
I do not know whether it is my computer, my internet connection or FF doing it, but this is the second time today that a post left the chart I was posting out.

Here it is. I hope.
Attached Image
  • #727
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:12pm Feb 28, 2007 7:12pm
August 1998
  • #728
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:13pm Feb 28, 2007 7:13pm
Moonchild's correct. Also notice the .38 fib retracement which stopped the pair from going up at 233.49. Overall, the action is slow right now, perhaps something will move in the london session. Right now we're stuck between the .38 fib and the resistance/now support of 232.99.
Attached Image
  • #729
  • Feb 28, 2007 7:13pm Feb 28, 2007 7:13pm
Quoting logical1
August 1998
Whats that?
  • #730
  • Edited 8:21pm Feb 28, 2007 8:11pm | Edited 8:21pm
232.60; i wonder how low can it go now?
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #731
  • Feb 28, 2007 8:38pm Feb 28, 2007 8:38pm
There is some talk of a possible resumption of the global risk reduction due to the asian stocks falling. Be careful with this pair right now.
  • #732
  • Feb 28, 2007 8:58pm Feb 28, 2007 8:58pm
Hi gang,

I spotted this thread on GBP/JPY and wanted to add my two cents to the mix. I've made "silly money" on this pair like the Duke, but there are some very concerning signs that the lucrative carry trade may be ending, at least temporarily.

I am an Ichimoku analyst, so I'll give you my opinion from that angle. Please don't hesitate to contact me with any questions you have about anything Ichimoku-related, as I know it is definitely not mainstream stuff, but it is powerful.

Some observations I have regarding this pair that I thought worth sharing:

1) A bearish senkou span cross (where the leading kumo "cloud" switches from bullish to bearish) is very close to being formed on the 1D chart. Additionally, price has breached the kumo and actually broke beneath that structure, something that hasn't happened since early 2006. See attached 1D chart.

2) If the Weekly candle for this trading week closes below 233.30, we will have our bullish engulfing candle on that time frame and a potential for further bearish price action.

3) The flat kijun sen on the Weekly chart may also be exerting its attractive influence on price, especially given the fact that we are trading below the tenkan sen on that time frame.

4) The Monthly chart shows clearly that we are at a critical juncture as price closed and retraced within 40-odd pips of the last swing high on that time frame (July, 1998). See attached chart.

What does this all add up to? Perhaps nothing, but it does have me considering more seriously the possibility for a major trend change for this pair.

- Ian
Attached Images
  • #733
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:05pm Feb 28, 2007 9:05pm
what exactly do you mean by a trend change? less volatility, less trending... or just a simple trend change to downwards?

Quoting iboersma
Hi gang,

What does this all add up to? Perhaps nothing, but it does have me considering more seriously the possibility for a major trend change for this pair.

- Ian
Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #734
  • Edited 9:28pm Feb 28, 2007 9:09pm | Edited 9:28pm
hi all,

nice to read all analysis here...may i join the club ?....

IMHO, price will go down to 231.00 - 231.50 level before go up again after all major news release today (use at yur own risk).

just my 2 cent.

cp
  • #735
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:19pm Feb 28, 2007 9:19pm
Quoting Scrat
what exactly do you mean by a trend change? less volatility, less trending... or just a simple trend change to downwards?
Scrat,

I'm basically saying that we could be looking at the possibility of a new, multi-year downtrend, much like we have seen with the current uptrend that started in January of 2003. As we all know, the "trend" is entirely dependent upon what time frame you are considering and perhaps I should have made that clear. I trade primarily on the Daily chart and higher, so I am looking at the Daily for defining the trend. From a strict weekly or monthly point of view, we are actually in something of a consolidation band with this pair as the price action is ranging, albeit across an extremely wide channel...

The Daily chart, in this case, is acting somewhat like an early warning system. With price breaking the kumo, it is telling me that this pair is, at the very least, losing its bullish momentum. At the worst it is telling me that a possible trend change is underway.

Again, I don't predict - ever. I just look objectively at the market and consider all the possiblities.

Best,

Ian
  • #736
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:27pm Feb 28, 2007 9:27pm
Ian,

Very interesting perspective. Thanks for the post. Below is a link to Mizuho Bank's annual outlook for the pair.

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/PDF'S/gbpjpyo.pdf
T
  • #737
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:39pm Feb 28, 2007 9:39pm
Quoting JokersWild
Ian,

Very interesting perspective. Thanks for the post. Below is a link to Mizuho Bank's annual outlook for the pair.

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/PDF'S/gbpjpyo.pdf
Hi JokersWild,

Thanks for the link.

I think Nicole Elliott is a very sharp analyst and I have a lot of respect for her. I actually corresponded with her a bit when I first started studying Ichimoku. However, while we both rely on Ichimoku for our analysis, we differ in our approach in a couple of fundamental ways. First, she is confident making predictions about where price will go, whereas I am not. I look at the market on whatever time frame I'm executing my trade on and come up with both a Bull and Bear trade idea. This forces me to remain objective in my view and provides me with a solid mathematical probability of success regardless which way price ends up going. Second, she provides relatively little explanation for the rationale behind her analyses, whereas I try to be as transparent as possible.

Either way, we both have different styles, and that is OK. I know that Nicole just published a book on her view of Ichimoku, so I am anxiously awaiting that, hoping she will be a bit more forthcoming in how she uses that charting system.

Best,

Ian
  • #738
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:44pm Feb 28, 2007 9:44pm
My only exposure thus far to Ichimoku has been thru her commentary and find it rather intriquing but also rather boring. I'm happy to read your commentary and hope you will continue to contribute.
T
  • #739
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:44pm Feb 28, 2007 9:44pm
Quoting JokersWild
Ian,

Very interesting perspective. Thanks for the post. Below is a link to Mizuho Bank's annual outlook for the pair.

http://www.mizuho-cb.co.uk/TresInternet/PDF'S/gbpjpyo.pdf
JokersWild,

Your link won't work, I can't bring up anything.
Don't understand what are you talking about, either.
Why don't you just post it here?! Thanks...............
  • #740
  • Feb 28, 2007 9:45pm Feb 28, 2007 9:45pm
Quoting iboersma
Hi JokersWild,

Thanks for the link.

I think Nicole Elliott is a very sharp analyst and I have a lot of respect for her. I actually corresponded with her a bit when I first started studying Ichimoku. However, while we both rely on Ichimoku for our analysis, we differ in our approach in a couple of fundamental ways. First, she is confident making predictions about where price will go, whereas I am not. I look at the market on whatever time frame I'm executing my trade on and come up with both a Bull and Bear trade idea. This forces me to remain objective in my view and provides me with a solid mathematical probability of success regardless which way price ends up going. Second, she provides relatively little explanation for the rationale behind her analyses, whereas I try to be as transparent as possible.

Either way, we both have different styles, and that is OK. I know that Nicole just published a book on her view of Ichimoku, so I am anxiously awaiting that, hoping she will be a bit more forthcoming in how she uses that charting system.

Best,

Ian
Im really liking your attitude and approach. Predicting future price movements can only get you in a whole lot of trouble, whereas creating a plan with different alternatives and executing that plan is the way to go. By doing so, you take all the guess work out of it and just follow your previously established rules no matter what happens. There's no way to predict the future, so you just have to react to what is happening at the moment by implementing the plan you've previously established. Way to go!
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