I see oil reaching 100 USD?!

It was a funny day. I was watching the news like a hawk. Question by early morning was: OK there will be a huge move, but where???

No one knew whether the stocks would rally or dollar would go down... Dow futures went from -80 to +30 before market open...

Petrobras went from +1% to -1% to +4% and closed flat

I wouldn't say this was an easy day across the globe...

Perhaps he forgot to fill up the car on the weekend

Bought the SUV of his dreams on the weekend in 60 payments. Now he's short oil and a subprime borrower all at once

Most definitely yes and further to the details once a contract is held at expiration for delivery:

200.14 Deliveryhttp://www.nymex.com/images/spacer.gif(A) Delivery shall be made F.O.B. at any pipeline or storage facility in Cushing, Oklahoma with pipeline access to TEPPCO, Cushing storage or Equilon Pipeline Company LLC Cushing storage. Delivery shall be made in accordance with all applicable Federal executive orders and all applicable Federal, State and local laws and regulations.

For the purposes of this Rule, the term F.O.B. shall mean a delivery in which the seller: (1) provides light "sweet" crude oil to the point of connection between seller's incoming and buyer's outgoing pipeline or storage facility which is free of all liens, encumbrances, unpaid taxes, fees and other charges; (2) in the event of the buyer's election to take delivery by interfacility transfer ("pumpover") to either TEPPCO, Cushing or Equilon Pipeline Company LLC, Cushing, from seller's delivery facility, bears the lesser of the pumpover charge applicable for pumpover from seller's delivery facility to TEPPCO or Equilon Pipeline Company LLC; and (3) retains title to and bears the risk of loss for the product to the point of connection between the buyer's outgoing and the seller's incoming pipeline or storage facility.

(B) At buyer's option, such delivery shall be made by any of the following methods:

(1) By interfacility transfer ("pumpover") into a designated pipeline or storage facility with access to seller's incoming pipeline or storage facility.

(2) By in-tank transfer of title to the buyer without physical movement of product; if the facility used by the seller allows such transfer, or by in-line transfer or book-out if the seller agrees to such transfer.

(C) All deliveries made in accordance with these rules shall be final and there shall be no appeal.

(D) Any seller delivering less than 5 contracts for one customer shall deliver out of storage at the Equilon Pipeline Company LLC facilities, unless the buyer and seller mutually agree to exempt the seller from this requirement.

Now seriously, let's forget oil $500 at least until it reaches $300.

For now, market is betting on the doom of the dollar, via the massive increase in US debt - which was one major reason for the dollar fall in the last 5 years in the first place...

It is a safe bet to short the crap out of the dollar for months to come, imho. Be it oil, currencies, commodity stocks, whatever...

I wouldn't call for global recession as the outcome of this mess.. Specially if China goes on growing fast.

Find it crazy? A friend of mine, producer of female purses is facing a massive slowdown for she didn't notice when China dumped tens of containers full of crappy cheap purses in our ports. China has the means to keep walking and may pretty much balance a possible recession in US.

As last resource, China puts $10 in the pockets of 1 billion people and all of the sudden, its economy has $10 billion running.

I don't rule out the US going through some rough painfull years.

As long as oil goes up with dollar going down, oil producers like Brazil is not going to suffer. Gas prices haven't changed a bit during this whole mess.

All praise the lord of the charts.

$20000 Cheques for my course should be sent to....

Hey, I am glad to find an Oil trading discussion with some experienced traders, mind if I join in? No sense being where you are not welcome.

My first share and bullion trades were around 1975 in Canada, and I have been in the Industry now for over 30 years. I am a partner in a few oil wells, which are producing nice royalties. Also been an offshore bank owner, but sold while it was good. I still practice in offshore.

I am a full time trader on my own corporate account, using IB. I studied Economics and History at University, and have been an avid reader over the decades, more since my contrarian concerns have been in alert mode before 1999. This credit melt down is far worse than 1987 by my view.

I can read and trade a naked chart, but like to put my trend lines and channels on, plus mark wave counts so I can remember where I left off - getting old, eh?

Hi FXoffshore, indeed Sir you are most welcome.Your experience is respected and most welcome!

Just doodling as I see it. $77 and probably $70 will be seen. Chance of v neat Head and shoulders perhaps.

Thanks, for the welcome.

I was pleased to see Oil dropping so fast on Friday, looking for a bottom to add some long positions in the $70-79 range, and $77 passed by. I hate picking bottoms, and would rather see some proof that this correction is over. My charts show we are near the end of a wave.C at the tail end of a 5:3:5 zig-zag down.

My concern are the intra-market correlations, mainly USD Index, it appears to be entering a powerful move higher, in an impulsive w.iii of III as a result of deflation, credit contraction, and de-leveraging of banks/hedge funds. If USD is going up, that puts pressure on Oil going down further.... any ideas?

Thanks for the article on bear markets shame about the heckling. I do not know about EW but am playing the Inside 4 bar (smallest of 4) long to $87. I see the Dollar falling in the short term.
2014 sounds about right to me, if we make it through 2012

Thanks Swami, forums can be like kindergarten sometimes.

I used to be a James16 student, and still have respect for his price action trading methods. Also followed Martin Pring.

As EUR/USD drops, Oil is falling as well, now around $75 and looking very tempting. Trying to be patient. Is there more downside left? 60/40

$70 once, $70 twice. Sold.

Thinking not a bottom yet, but then again??

Patience, my chart tells me the bottom is not in yet. Not while S&P and Eur/Usd are dropping again. The lower it goes, the better I like it, looking for adding some 1:2 margin longs to get out of USD while it is strong, and buy oil in CAD while it is weaker adds currency protection. There is talk about $50 targets in Dec futures becoming popular, I would love to see $50-60 range.

Buying 1:2 at $60 long, is likely to see $90 over the next few quarters, which would be a 100% gain. Even if it sits at $60 for a year, I am happy to not hold USD in 2009, especially if inflation goes exponential or a way breaks out.

OPEC is expected to reduce supply by about 2 million bpd. on Friday. However, the collapse is not mostly about supply/demand - it is about deleveraging of highly margined positions in all assets being forced to liquidate by banks and hedge funds to service redemptions. A very strong headwind south.

S&P I believe has had a bottom - even if that bottom only holds till Jan'09 and then regain downward momentum.

Nothing to down with politics, and everything to do with seasonals, Santa Claus rally yada yada.

Ho, Ho , HO

Merry Depression.

I do not like the idea of smiling while the rest is crying....


Sonic

Maybe, maybe not.

Well, I am going to ride my sleigh DOWN HILL. thank you. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=63977

(much easier than pushing it up against the slope)

But at $2.83/gallon and dropping as we speak, and not /litre, at least I won't be pushing my auto into that depression.

Ho ho.

Hello friends. I see the soil prices coming down for the time. Oil prices are going to be above 100 after 2-3 months.