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Elliott Wave Trading

  • #621
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:52am Oct 20, 2008 1:52am
Quoting lancelot41
Hey guys, whats up? I am just jumping around a litlle and decided to put some gold chart in thsi threat.

This gold has been pretty tricky since the new yearly lows. Fisrtly I was looking for a possible a-b-c-d-e triangle in wave II. But now when are prices down at 76.4% Fibo support looks like we have the zig zag correction with the irregular b. The fisrt signs of the bulls could already be here as the market broke the trend lines. But I suggest you to be patient, form my experineces, market always need a lot of room around this 76.4% support, because it can happen that it wont tested thsi leve only once. However, the risk and award is loking pretty good...

If the oil breaks the support at $70 and euro pushes below 1.3350 then we may also see new lows on the gold...But in this situattion I am hopping on flat on the gold, because otherwise I will need to change my wave count, cause this one will be invalidated.

Attachment
wow, didn't expect to see you here. been reading your posts.
good to see you here.
  • #622
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:57am Oct 20, 2008 1:57am
Quoting lancelot41
Hey guys, whats up? I am just jumping around a litlle and decided to put some gold chart in thsi threat.

This gold has been pretty tricky since the new yearly lows. Fisrtly I was looking for a possible a-b-c-d-e triangle in wave II. But now when are prices down at 76.4% Fibo support looks like we have the zig zag correction with the irregular b. The fisrt signs of the bulls could already be here as the market broke the trend lines. But I suggest you to be patient, form my experineces, market always need a lot of room around this 76.4% support, because it can happen that it wont tested thsi leve only once. However, the risk and award is loking pretty good...

If the oil breaks the support at $70 and euro pushes below 1.3350 then we may also see new lows on the gold...But in this situattion I am hopping on flat on the gold, because otherwise I will need to change my wave count, cause this one will be invalidated.

Attachment
  • #623
  • Oct 20, 2008 2:14am Oct 20, 2008 2:14am
Yes, I see similar counts with many pairs, at least usdcad could be included in your list. However, uj seems to be a different case, my count there is different (in the light of latest moves mine seems to be wrong)...

My updated usdjpy count looks now like this, very tricky, might still have some errors in it. Any alternatives for this count?

R

PS. Just noticed that wave3 is not correct...

Quoting pkimnyc
hi blue.

i have the same count on ABC correction on guppy, and eu.
i think same ABC correction can be seen on uj and cable as well.
do you agree?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #624
  • Oct 20, 2008 2:25am Oct 20, 2008 2:25am
Leading diagonals are quite rare, and expanding variety are even more rare.

Grega - nice to see you drop in. I favor a bearish Gold count, still favor an unfinished Cycle degree correction from the Mar 17 high is not complete yet.
  • #625
  • Oct 20, 2008 3:23am Oct 20, 2008 3:23am
That is exactly what I meant, not too happy with the count. So how would you count uj? Thanks,

R

Quoting FXoffshore
Leading diagonals are quite rare, and expanding variety are even more rare.

Grega - nice to see you drop in. I favor a bearish Gold count, still favor an unfinished Cycle degree correction from the Mar 17 high is not complete yet.
  • #626
  • Oct 20, 2008 4:18am Oct 20, 2008 4:18am
Hi,

I had got a different count....your comments on the count ..please

Rgds
Muthu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: JPY 2H 201008.jpg Size: 185 KB
  • #627
  • Edited 6:22am Oct 20, 2008 5:16am | Edited 6:22am
Hi Muthu, an expanding diagonal seems to be pretty unavoidable, to make some sense to counting. But the rest from your wave2 onwards has imo many options. Your counting is one, but perhaps it leads to too many nested counts (cycles within eachother)? Here you can see my once again my updated proposal, which is a little bit different to yours.

There could also be some triangle plays with the ongoing correction, but obviously this is one of those pairs where we just have to wait for more price movements until it is possible to create a reliable count.

BR,
R

Quoting nms
Hi,

I had got a different count....your comments on the count ..please

Rgds
Muthu
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #628
  • Oct 20, 2008 6:06am Oct 20, 2008 6:06am
Hi Rocroy,

I too felt about that nested labels..
ur first count is an alternative..but on the second one..i doubt whether a 3rd wave can be a triangle..they are always impulsive.

rgds
Muthu

Quoting Rocroy
Hi Muthu, an expanding diagonal seems to be pretty unavoidable, to make some sense to counting. But the rest from your wave2 onwards has imo many options. Your counting is one, but perhaps it leads to too many nested counts (cycles within eachother)? Here you can see my once again my updated proposal, which is a little bit different to yours.

There could also be some triangle plays with the ongoing correction, but obviously this is one of those pairs where we just have to wait for more price movements until it is possible to create a reliable count.

Might this huge expanding triangle in the latter chart be one alternative?

BR,
R



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  • #629
  • Oct 20, 2008 6:18am Oct 20, 2008 6:18am
Yes you are right, I need to be more careful with my ideas
Better take that chart away, it is simply wrong.

R

Quoting nms
Hi Rocroy,

I too felt about that nested labels..
ur first count is an alternative..but on the second one..i doubt whether a 3rd wave can be a triangle..they are always impulsive.

rgds
Muthu
  • #630
  • Oct 20, 2008 8:52am Oct 20, 2008 8:52am
Quoting Rocroy
Yes, I see similar counts with many pairs, at least usdcad could be included in your list. However, uj seems to be a different case, my count there is different (in the light of latest moves mine seems to be wrong)...

My updated usdjpy count looks now like this, very tricky, might still have some errors in it. Any alternatives for this count?

R

PS. Just noticed that wave3 is not correct...



Attachment
thanks rocroy.
  • #631
  • Oct 20, 2008 1:11pm Oct 20, 2008 1:11pm
I have updated my counts, again... Do we have a real truncation this time with euro?

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #632
  • Oct 20, 2008 10:51pm Oct 20, 2008 10:51pm
Hey guys, I'm new to the thread. BTW, nice thread. I spent time over the weekend catching up to now what has become this point in the thread. Anyway, I'm wondering what everyone now thinks about the GBP/JPY pair. Are we still heading up the the "C" wave or do you feel that the wave came up short today, and that we are going to start a new #1 point tomorrow? Or Maybe it's a sideways x,y,z?

Any thoughts of the current count after today (Monday)?

Thanks...
  • #633
  • Oct 20, 2008 11:07pm Oct 20, 2008 11:07pm
Quoting Rocroy
I have updated my counts, again... Do we have a real truncation this time with euro?
Your count looks good, I also had a small triangle w.iv that broke lower last night as expected. Not sure small w.v is done. It is not truncated technically if it is lower than w.3 (the B wave does not count). In light of the turmoil, the push down has been more sideways.

I see the final w.5 on your chart as small w.i of something larger, likely wave 3 down.
  • #634
  • Oct 21, 2008 12:16am Oct 21, 2008 12:16am
Yes, you are right about the truncation, this looks like one because of the correction having the lowest point in the pattern, but as w5 goes lower than w3, this isn't a truncation.

The last wave may not be finished yet, but as a whole this pattern looks now pretty good, and the 161 fib support seems to be holding.

But better to wait for more confirmation.

R

Quoting FXoffshore
Your count looks good, I also had a small triangle w.iv that broke lower last night as expected. Not sure small w.v is done. It is not truncated technically if it is lower than w.3 (the B wave does not count). In light of the turmoil, the push down has been more sideways.

I see the final w.5 on your chart as small w.i of something larger, likely wave 3 down.
  • #635
  • Oct 21, 2008 1:23am Oct 21, 2008 1:23am
it is in great down trend long term , see d1 ,w1 chart and most of the retracement attempts continue to failed & now it is 5th leg of a vey big downtrend , not even middle but it seems at the starting of it ( ii) ,the next move (iii) will be very big may enough to go below 1.30.

though it seems an arrest as 5 th fail & double bottom but virtually it impossible to think so & as there is not any divergence arround in h1 chart not interruption in thie existing down trend of 5th leg should be happen.
lets see what happen in near future , today.
http://www.gogetin.info/eu1el7.gif


also I see usdjpy

I just see 5 th wave failure & presented at double top in C retracement wave in usdjpy & hence there should be good movement down here , watch it
http://www.gogetin.info/uj1el1.gif
also see the same in m15,m30 having completed all the el pattenrs .also see the bearish divergence.
and there no such compelling datas today ,so will go without much fundaments to interrup( though oil expected up due to fear of output cut by OPEC) .

please advice & help correction.

fontu
Not understand?better not follow my analyses!doubt clearer first, risks ++
  • #636
  • Edited 2:04am Oct 21, 2008 1:49am | Edited 2:04am
This is my current count for the Cable. I believe we are in wave (iii) of 3 of (v) of III down?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #637
  • Oct 21, 2008 10:10am Oct 21, 2008 10:10am
i totally agree with ur counting bro..
we're on the same ship then

Quoting pipeye
This is my current count for the Cable. I believe we are in wave (iii) of 3 of (v) of III down?
Money management is good for your health...
  • #638
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:20pm Oct 21, 2008 3:20pm
for review only
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf AUD- USD GET COUNT.pdf   37 KB | 388 downloads
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #639
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:20pm Oct 21, 2008 3:20pm
for review only
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf YEN- USD GET COUNT.pdf   47 KB | 412 downloads
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
  • #640
  • Oct 21, 2008 3:21pm Oct 21, 2008 3:21pm
for review only
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf ORANGE JUICE GET COUNT.pdf   39 KB | 411 downloads
Don't chase the market, Let the market come to you
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