GBPUSD

i'm not sure too..the trend is still very much bearish but on analysis terms, i think we have pretty much had the price cornered.

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/66/gu10myk9.th.jpg

Here are the sterling levels for 2-22. I continue to be on sidelines at this point. Not much change today overall.

Price continues to trade below the daily river level. Aggressive traders could set up shorts around the 9561 area(todays River level) with a risk just above 9610+area. A move down would target 9456, 9378 then 9303. I am not comfortable getting short just yet although the setup appears valid.

A move up through the 9608 area and I would establish fresh longs with a risk area just below the magenta River area. Longs would target 9721, then 9783 athen 9958. This is my preferred scenario if it were to occur.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-22-2007.PNG

Here is the 60M shorter term view. Remember the magneta (River) levels change every hour. Good luck.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-22-2007.PNG

Levels for 2-23

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-23-2007.PNG

Here is the 60M River chart as of 9:00 AM. A possible scenario if price does continue. Use the 9602 area as a guide. A close under here or a strong move back thru may be a sign to stand aside.

If you are inclined to get long. Set up if we get a pullback to the 9602 area, or just stay long.Target above 9680, tehn 9776/83

Good luck.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-23-2007.PNG

Here are the River levels for 2-26.

I hope everyone had a good weekend. I sense that we are at a major inflection point in many currency pairs and I think the GBPUSD takes front and center this week.

I hope some of you who are interested in learning more about value trading have taken a look at the Monthly Price Distribution Section of the website. You should definitely review where this pair is at right now. It will help to bring into focus the importance and volatility of current trading. Stay nimble on this pair, we may move hard one way or another.

Okay, lets focus on today.

We are either long thru 9608 or looking to establish longs on a pullback to this level or just below. Our short term targets are 9687, 9783, and 9858.
I would cover on a close below River. This would indicate downside may be coming or we may build value more through this area. Until we move below River, I am thinking long and like the risk level.

If you are long, stay long. If you are looking to get long. Take a look at the 60M chart below and plan accordingly to set up longs around 9602/9592 area.

Good luck. Should be interesting this week.


http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-26-2007.PNG


http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertr..._2-26-2007.PNG

Here are the Daily River Levels for 2-27

I am going to post the daily updates this way from now on. It is much less time consuming for me. We can continue to discuss them here as usual

Im not a big news trader, but it seems like the GBPUSd is trading in a box and with the negative news that is due out for the Dollar, this could cause an upwrad break of the box. Which is essence supports your theory of buy GBPUSD.

Which ever way the box breaks, im going with it.

Sounds good nikim. Post your trade and let us know your thoughts. Good luck to you. I am long on the move out of River at 9593 as indicated in the update.

Here are the River Levels for 2-28

I'm currently very bearish with GBP/USD. I expect a big move downward that may begin the new bearish trend. Let's see what happens tomorrow. Don't take my word too seriously though.

I do see a strong move down through the River Level today, but I will wait for the close. It is not uncommon at this level to have extreme volatility. It does look like you may be correct though. Good luck.

Good morning everyone. I regret to inform you that I have been asked to stop the links to the website where I am posting the trades. The people here feel I am leeching prospective traffic awayfrom this website. I am not totally sure what they mean since I made the web to supplement the post here, but none the less I will respect and honor the request.

I will no longer be posting here. It is just too time consuming for me to do it any other way. I do plan to continue my efforts at my blog and I will still keep my journal thread open to help. I just won't be able to post charts all the time.

Good luck to you and I hope I have helped you become a better trader.

All the best,
DRT

I was wrong. Seems like Cable failed to drop again yesterday. This gonna take some time. :

I hope you are as good at being wrong as I am. I have a lot of practice. No way around it unfortunately. I am still looking though.

Something that I just noticed just now.
The Monthly, Weekly and Daily pivot are close with each other. If it penetrates lowest level 1.9571 (weekly pivot level) it's going to go down pretty good I hope.

Great point. And obvious area of value. How it resolves this area is certainly a key.

Nice penetration on GBPUSD.
The Weekly pivot is strongly penetrated. Let's hope the drop continues.

Nice call on this one.

Like what you said earlier, no shame in being wrong, no pride in being right, but pips are always good . I closed half of my position when it was 50 pips profit and I'm going to let the profits run with the remainders.

Happy trading to all.

Just like me this weekend, the market appears to have decided to "unwind" a little to say the least. The carry trade risk seems to be dominating early on.

My view was WRONG on this one! I have taken two straight losses on my longs at the Trasition and River Level and I also set up a long on Friday on the move down throught the Zone -1 static level. And guess what, I am long again on the move through Zone -2 at 9207.

If you exited your longs and set up shorts on the move down from River, you are likely very happy.

So what is the plan now?

Price has surged down hard and has tested Zone -2. Although aggressive, I have set up longs at this level. River is at 9443 on a daily basis and as of this post the River level is coming in around 9353. My targets are 9347, then 9443 where I would cover. Use appropriate Risk here. I would say a strong move down through 9175 would alter my long view and I would likely cover. If you would rather, wait for a confirmation move back avove the Zone -2 level and then set up your longs.

Although my short term bias is now bearish, I would not set up shorts as of this post and will need to see further price action.

The key for the next directional move will be resolution of the 8251 level.
BEARISH BELOW RIVER AT 9497


http://downrivertrader.squarespace.c...203-5-2007.PNG
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