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  • #123,441
  • Oct 18, 2008 9:31am Oct 18, 2008 9:31am
Quoting quecee5
Yes, after this 3 wave correction ends which could extend above to 192 on a break above 181.40. . .

If price break thru 192 on a Holiday rally (Thanksgiving/Xmas) then 197/199 should be toppy for the pair. . .

Right now price seems to be basing for the shor-term based on the weekly close but that could change next week when Ben Bernake takes the stage

Stay Tuned. . .

Worth Reading

http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2008101864903/
Japanese Yen Forecast Remains Bullish on Financial Market Stress Fundamental Forecast for Japanese Yen: Bullish

  1. Japanese Yen Plunges Against Australian dollar on Return To Risk
  2. US Recapitalization Plan Fails to Sink Risk-Friendly Japanese Yen
  3. Japanese Demand Falters, Stokes Recessionary Fears

The Japanese Yen was one of the few currencies to lose against the US dollar through the past week of forex trade, as a marginal improvement in global risk sentiment and the US Dow Jones forced pullbacks in the Japanese currency. Yet the recent lull in financial market stress hardly suggests that the worst is over for global equity markets. We maintain our fundamentally bullish bias for the Japanese Yen, as cursory look at key credit and equity market indicators shows that conditions are far from normal. The spread between 3-month US Dollar London Interbank Offered Rates (LIBOR) and 3-month US Treasury Bills remains at an astounding 362 basis points. Prior to the onset of the subprime crisis in 2007, this same Treasury-Eurodollar spread averaged below 40 basis points. It remains all-too-clear that recent central bank actions have not yet forced significant improvements in interbank lending markets, and this will continue to raise borrowing costs and crimp corporate earnings through the foreseeable future.

I agree with Quecee
If anyone is interested, I write a blog...

http://fxtradingguide.com/blog/
  • #123,442
  • Oct 18, 2008 9:52am Oct 18, 2008 9:52am
Quoting ovaforty
I agree with Quecee
If anyone is interested, I write a blog...

http://fxtradingguide.com/blog/
Nice blog my friend. . .
  • #123,443
  • Oct 18, 2008 10:01am Oct 18, 2008 10:01am
Should be an interesting week starting Sunday. . .

http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2008101864903/

British Pound May Not Be The Only Currency Responding To 3Q GDP

Fundamental Outlook for British Pound: Bearish

  1. UK bails three banks as 500 billion pound bailout plan put into action quickly
  2. Unemployment claims rise to near two-year high as recession begins to take hold
  3. BoE says it will delay reporting those banks seeking emergency funds to avoid panic

Event risk promises a volatile week for the British pound should risk trends give way to normal market operations when liquidity returns to the market. And, without doubt, the most market-moving piece of data for the sterling (and likely the entire currency market) will be the advance reading of third quarter GDP. With the housing market collapse hitting a new stride, trade deficits ballooning to records, lending essentially evaporating and consumer spending souring with confidence, the 0.2 percent contraction forecasted for Europe's second largest economy may ultimately prove modest. This would technically only be the first quarter of negative growth - a line that many Euro Zone members have already crossed in the period through June. Nonetheless, this would be the first contraction in growth for the UK in 16 years and recent data would easily bridge the gap for a technical recession. Obviously, this data would have a considerable impact on the pound - with a integral role in driving interest rate speculation - but this data will further have an impact on the entire currency market. As the first of the G7 economies to release its growth numbers, this indicator will confirm or deny growing forecasts that the world economy is heading toward recession.
Before the 3Q growth number hits the wires and absorbs the entire Forex market, sterling traders will have plenty of event risk to trade against. Starting things off immediately through Sunday's illiquid hours with the Rightmove House Prices gauge. As the leading sector indicator, this report may generate interest; but the actually influence it has on price action will be limited as the market is already well aware of the housing recession n the United Kingdom. Perhaps more interesting though will be Thursday's BBA home loans report for September. This indicator is not only leading housing indicator; but it is also a key measure for consumers' demand for credit and their level of confidence. Net public borrowing figures on Monday will give a similar reading for rotating loans. Elsewhere, reports on both manufacturing and retail sector health will offer last minute adjustments to speculation on the GDP report. However, we shouldn't expect much of a reaction form the markets to either of these reports. The CBI quarterly industrial trends report is a broad reading of factory activity, but its proprietary release renders its an impotent indicator. For most currencies, governmental retail sales readings are often top market movers; but for the UK, the data is volatile and even the BoE has said it was paying the data little heed when deciding monetary policy. - JK

  • #123,444
  • Oct 18, 2008 11:25am Oct 18, 2008 11:25am
We are currently in a flag, but it remains to be seen whether we break out or not.

Below is my view on the possible support and resistance points based just on trendlines on a 4hr chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #123,445
  • Oct 18, 2008 11:41am Oct 18, 2008 11:41am
GJ 2 scenario

(i) Follow the widening triangle and going down again
(ii) Break the TL/Widening triangle, and follow the new channel and going up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #123,446
  • Oct 18, 2008 4:43pm Oct 18, 2008 4:43pm
Looking closely at the monthly, weekly, daily and 4h chart for GY, I am beginning to feel less bearish. I want to see clear direction before trading since she is bouncing around in a dead zone, but I'm beginning to think the bulls in here may be right after all

We may have to postpone the steak barbeque...
  • #123,447
  • Oct 18, 2008 5:49pm Oct 18, 2008 5:49pm
If risk aversion goes away, the carry trades will get bought for the daily interest.
  • #123,448
  • Oct 18, 2008 7:52pm Oct 18, 2008 7:52pm
Quoting mphpopular
GJ 2 scenario

(i) Follow the widening triangle and going down again
(ii) Break the TL/Widening triangle, and follow the new channel and going up.
same chart as mine

here are my thoughts

176.5 is major stopping place .... also 50% fib of down move 182 ish to 170 ish . I now see bearish div in both reg rsi and rapid rsi . I plotted a 1-2-3 sell formation on my 60 min and IF we break 173.70 then we can expect to see down side targets as noted on the chart

The downward bias maybe supported by the daily chart of the YM. Friday was option expiry day. With the bearish markets alot of put options were likely exercised , meaning that the options were turned into stocks and then short covering incurred as most of the put options were taken at a higher price. The 500 point drop at end of day was on ultra high volume on a 60 min , this typically indicates that the herd was selling and that institutional investors may use this as buying opportunity on Monday

so based on this gap down Sunday , then buying maybe starting in the UK session , following through to the US session .....

Attachment
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #123,449
  • Oct 18, 2008 8:12pm Oct 18, 2008 8:12pm
see notes on chart

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #123,450
  • Oct 18, 2008 10:27pm Oct 18, 2008 10:27pm
hello everyone, hope u guys having a good weekend. hope u're getting over that cold DutchTrader

Quecee has contributed some interesting stuff. i would like to draw everyone's attention to some charts on oil.

oil has been (was?) a major driver of the market since its peak at 147/148. when that top was reached back in july, the same was noticed for both cable and euro at the very exact date. when oil fell, everything else was falling. notice that YM (DJI) wasn't making new lows when cable, euro, and oil were, it had to do some catching up later on that drove GJ further to the pit.

i have 3 charts for you guys for oil; weekly, daily and 4h. i have written some notes inside the charts. they should be self explanatory. i might want to emphasize that the daily chart is showing a very clear broadening wedge, and price is currently kissing the lower TL, which might mean reversal (or more likely a correction) very soon.

CCI values for the weekly charts have confirmed major trend reversal. oil is no longer going to see above $110 (maybe not even above 100) a barrel for a long time to come, not for the next 2-3 years.

daily is showing a week bullish divergence though, BUT, 4h is showing strong classic bullish divergence. we are currently at a weekly 78.6 fibo which SHOULD act as a very strong s/r level, other than the fact we're touching a lower TL of a falling broadening wedge.

i'm sure u guys can agree that we should also see a major correction on major currencies since oil was one of the main factors that led to this change in major currency trends.

also notice, that i'm only explaining 1 scenario, which is hitting the upper TL ($85-$90) of the wedge and falling back to 59-60$ a barrel. the second scenario would be breaking that upper TL of the wedge and going all the way for a 38.2 retracement at 98-100$ or even a 50% at 108-110 max.

i will be waiting for the best opportunity to go long for a swing trade on oil. i did try last week, but it was only good for 150 points (1.5$).

charts: weekly/daily/4h (same order)

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #123,451
  • Oct 19, 2008 12:18am Oct 19, 2008 12:18am
and now for GJ...

friday was simply frustrating... now that i look at the 4h chart with a clearer mind i find price trapped between FE 23.6 amd FE 38.2 (also in confluence with 50ema).

i have 2 scenarios in mind that i would like to share. since i mentioned that oil SHOULD start a correction, i will assume cable should as well, therefore GJ. and while UJ has been strangly acting the same as euro/cable lately, i would assume the same for UJ.

now, we have 2 levels that GJ must break in order for it to finish a FE 100 cycle: the current FE level at 38.2 (also 50ema) which price has been having trouble with lately, and also FE 61.8 at 180. i would think this correction it started after hitting 166 should end at 185 which not only is a FE100, but also a 61.8 retracement of the move down from 197 to 166, and a daily TL i have in red on the chart.

on the alternative, i am showing a CCI TL breakout, although not confirmed. if CCI closes below the -100 line, then retesting 166 is inevitable. if broken, then i would assume that wave 4 of 5 is overwith and we're heading for our fastest wave down to 149 (FE 100 placed from 197 - 166 - 181), i won't be picking bottoms before then. that value (149) will be different, of course, if 181 isn't the top of wave 4 of 5.

daily PA is suggesting a reversal pattern (more up). we have known GJ for its manipulative moves, BUT lately i've been so surprised for how easy the setups have been. predicting the bottom at 166 was really easy. predicting the rally from there to 181 was easy as well, and predicting the fall from there was also easy. now that's wayyyy too easy. the entire sentiment on this thread and other threads / broker analysis on the web are suggesting a bullish week. i'm not sure if this might be the case. but be careful guys, being flexable in trading is the most essential part of today's market. we have to deal with things as they are. if we close below 174.50-173 then make sure ur asses are fully loaded with shorts heading back to 166 and LOWER, there might be a huge opportunity here. but since i said i'm flexible, then i would also alert u guys that the break of 176-177 would highly suggest 185 or above.

orion: 209??? naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah


4h chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #123,452
  • Edited 8:37am Oct 19, 2008 8:15am | Edited 8:37am
Moe, i agree about the 209 at this time, is why i liquidated thursday night @ 176. 164 area next stop

i suspect supply overcomes demand
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #123,453
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:53am Oct 19, 2008 8:53am
this week comes the Lehman CDS protection expiry date, I would be cautious with the longs until Wednesday, we don't know who needs to pay and what amounts, and what names could go under...just beware of Oct. 21st
"Everybody needs money. That's why they call it money" - Danny De Vito
  • #123,454
  • Oct 19, 2008 8:58am Oct 19, 2008 8:58am
Quoting lilmoe
and now for GJ...

friday was simply frustrating... now that i look at the 4h chart with a clearer mind i find price trapped between FE 23.6 amd FE 38.2 (also in confluence with 50ema).

i have 2 scenarios in mind that i would like to share. since i mentioned that oil SHOULD start a correction, i will assume cable should as well, therefore GJ. and while UJ has been strangly acting the same as euro/cable lately, i would assume the same for UJ.

now, we have 2 levels that GJ must break in order for it to finish a FE 100 cycle: the current FE level at 38.2 (also 50ema) which price has been having trouble with lately, and also FE 61.8 at 180. i would think this correction it started after hitting 166 should end at 185 which not only is a FE100, but also a 61.8 retracement of the move down from 197 to 166, and a daily TL i have in red on the chart.

on the alternative, i am showing a CCI TL breakout, although not confirmed. if CCI closes below the -100 line, then retesting 166 is inevitable. if broken, then i would assume that wave 4 of 5 is overwith and we're heading for our fastest wave down to 149 (FE 100 placed from 197 - 166 - 181), i won't be picking bottoms before then. that value (149) will be different, of course, if 181 isn't the top of wave 4 of 5.

daily PA is suggesting a reversal pattern (more up). we have known GJ for its manipulative moves, BUT lately i've been so surprised for how easy the setups have been. predicting the bottom at 166 was really easy. predicting the rally from there to 181 was easy as well, and predicting the fall from there was also easy. now that's wayyyy too easy. the entire sentiment on this thread and other threads / broker analysis on the web are suggesting a bullish week. i'm not sure if this might be the case. but be careful guys, being flexable in trading is the most essential part of today's market. we have to deal with things as they are. if we close below 174.50-173 then make sure ur asses are fully loaded with shorts heading back to 166 and LOWER, there might be a huge opportunity here. but since i said i'm flexible, then i would also alert u guys that the break of 176-177 would highly suggest 185 or above.

orion: 209??? naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah


4h chart:

Attachment

lilmoe .. thanks for spending time for the last 2 postings ....

oil I agree with ... i thought i was imagining it and glad to see you are on the same page as me.

Looking at usd index I see a bearish div in the rsi on the daily and expect this to drop . On this note I would like to share 2 charts of the gbpusd.

the 4 hour has an ascending triangle , with a top at 1.7600. A 1-2-3 buy with fib extensions plotted on it gives us upside targets of :
1.7465 , 1.7661 , 1.7801 , 1.8000

The daily has a bullish div on the rsi that has been building. supporting the breakout of the 1.7400 level

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 'gbp4h.png Size: 174 KB


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpd.png Size: 188 KB
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
  • #123,455
  • Oct 19, 2008 9:08am Oct 19, 2008 9:08am
Quoting malcolmb14
lilmoe .. thanks for spending time for the last 2 postings ....

oil I agree with ... i thought i was imagining it and glad to see you are on the same page as me.

Looking at usd index I see a bearish div in the rsi on the daily and expect this to drop . On this note I would like to share 2 charts of the gbpusd.

the 4 hour has an ascending triangle , with a top at 1.7600. A 1-2-3 buy with fib extensions plotted on it gives us upside targets of :
1.7465 , 1.7661 , 1.7801 , 1.8000

The daily has a bullish div on the rsi that has been building. supporting the breakout of the 1.7400 level

Attachment

Attachment
Thanks Malcolmb and Lilmoe for the insights
For GU daily chart bullish div, I think it has been played out when the level reached 1.75 area.
On the 4H chart, looks like it's setting to trend down to 171 area or lower.. (not sure either) ..
  • #123,456
  • Oct 19, 2008 10:25am Oct 19, 2008 10:25am
malcomb, I did a search on this site for that RSI color line bar indicator you have but could not find it, could you please share it here?

Edit: a bit more google searching, it looks like that particular indicator is only available for E-Signal?
If anyone has an MT4 version, please post it here, it looks like something useful.
  • #123,457
  • Oct 19, 2008 10:32am Oct 19, 2008 10:32am
Quoting ovaforty
I agree with Quecee
If anyone is interested, I write a blog...

http://fxtradingguide.com/blog/

quite enlightening.
  • #123,458
  • Oct 19, 2008 10:41am Oct 19, 2008 10:41am
http://www.actionforex.com/fundament...2008101964917/

Interesting reading. . .

LIBOR Could Drop 50 Basis Points Monday-Yen To Follow?

Market Implications

At this time, with everyone focused on the credit situation, a 50 basis point fall in 3-month LIBOR (which is a fairly dramatic decrease) could potentially have a positive effect on equity markets. And as we’ve seen, the Yen weakens against the higher-yielding currencies (dollar, euro, pound etc) when traders buy risk. Such moves also tend to weaken the dollar vs. the higher-yielding euro, pound, Australian and New Zeal and dollars at the same time.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

Could mean a return to risk appetite for the crosses short-term. . .
  • #123,459
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:01am Oct 19, 2008 11:01am
Quoting lilmoe
and now for GJ...

friday was simply frustrating... now that i look at the 4h chart with a clearer mind i find price trapped between FE 23.6 amd FE 38.2 (also in confluence with 50ema).

i have 2 scenarios in mind that i would like to share. since i mentioned that oil SHOULD start a correction, i will assume cable should as well, therefore GJ. and while UJ has been strangly acting the same as euro/cable lately, i would assume the same for UJ.

now, we have 2 levels that GJ must break in order for it to finish a FE 100 cycle: the current FE level at 38.2 (also 50ema) which price has been having trouble with lately, and also FE 61.8 at 180. i would think this correction it started after hitting 166 should end at 185 which not only is a FE100, but also a 61.8 retracement of the move down from 197 to 166, and a daily TL i have in red on the chart.

on the alternative, i am showing a CCI TL breakout, although not confirmed. if CCI closes below the -100 line, then retesting 166 is inevitable. if broken, then i would assume that wave 4 of 5 is overwith and we're heading for our fastest wave down to 149 (FE 100 placed from 197 - 166 - 181), i won't be picking bottoms before then. that value (149) will be different, of course, if 181 isn't the top of wave 4 of 5.

daily PA is suggesting a reversal pattern (more up). we have known GJ for its manipulative moves, BUT lately i've been so surprised for how easy the setups have been. predicting the bottom at 166 was really easy. predicting the rally from there to 181 was easy as well, and predicting the fall from there was also easy. now that's wayyyy too easy. the entire sentiment on this thread and other threads / broker analysis on the web are suggesting a bullish week. i'm not sure if this might be the case. but be careful guys, being flexable in trading is the most essential part of today's market. we have to deal with things as they are. if we close below 174.50-173 then make sure ur asses are fully loaded with shorts heading back to 166 and LOWER, there might be a huge opportunity here. but since i said i'm flexible, then i would also alert u guys that the break of 176-177 would highly suggest 185 or above.

orion: 209??? naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah


4h chart:

Attachment
looking @ the same chart bro.
it looks a lot like the summer rally we've just had from march to aug.
expecting similar pattern to play out. targeting 61.8 @ fibo for now, but let's see how high she goes (short to mid term) before another plunge begins.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: a.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #123,460
  • Oct 19, 2008 11:10am Oct 19, 2008 11:10am
Quoting pkimnyc
looking @ the same chart bro.
it looks a lot like the summer rally we've just had from march to aug.
expecting similar pattern to play out. targeting 61.8 @ fibo for now, but let's see how high she goes (short to mid term) before another plunge begins.
With you bro. . .

Larger trend is down however she needs time to correct before resuming. If the credit markets starts to thaw we may see a return for risk appetite which could drive price up a bit higher. . .

I still for one see price moving higher toward the presidential election thru Thanksgiving/Xmas for a last rally up. . . The market has been depressed for the last couple of months so I think a bit of relief is forthcoming. . .
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily chart.gif Size: 22 KB
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