Sweet, sweet Oil

triangle breakout would not be surprising, think how many are short in 140's/130's, they will need to cash in

OIL down : 107/147 ~ 23.6% ~ scale to Fibonacci? Long?
Chart:
http://i523.photobucket.com/albums/w...IL1508_1-1.png

Yesterday U.S. oil inventories are up from 0.7 to 9.4 million. 13 times supply. Yet, Oil explodes today over $6.00. Isn't oil supposed to move on supply and demand? They blame the Russia/Georgia conflict. I think this story is a little late to boost oil prices up. They days this war started oil went down.

Interesting article I read today:

NEW YORK (Aug. 21) - A single energy conglomerate held 11 percent of all contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange at one point last month, according to a published report Thursday, suggesting that speculators may have played a larger part in volatile oil markets than once thought.
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission made an unusual request last month for data from Vitol Group, a private Swiss energy company that regulators thought was helping industrial firms get the oil they needed, according to The Washington Post.
The commission discovered, however, that the Vitol would be better described as a speculator, trading oil contracts to turn profits rather than assisting companies that actually needed oil delivered for their operations.
The report comes one month after the Interagency Task Force on Commodity Markets, chaired by the commission, released an interim report saying record oil prices were the result of "fundamental supply and demand factors."
"It is now evident that speculators in the energy futures markets play a much larger role than previously thought, and it is now even harder to accept the agency's laughable assertion that excessive speculation has not contributed to rising energy prices," said Rep. John Dingell, D-Mich.
Dingell told the Post it was "difficult to comprehend how the CFTC would allow a trader" to acquire such a large oil inventory "and not scrutinize this position any sooner."
A number of lawmakers have blamed speculators for the spike in oil prices and last week, four Democratic senators asked for an investigation into the commission's report, which they said was based on flawed information.
The commission never named Vitol. The Wall Street Journal identified the company in a report Wednesday which cited unidentified people familiar with the matter. The Post cited two anonymous sources that it said had direct knowledge of the commission's request in their report.
The commission investigation showed Vitol was one of the most active traders of oil on Nymex as prices reached record levels.
By June 6, Vitol had amassed contracts equal to 57.7 million barrels of oil, about three times the amount the United States consumes daily. On that day, the price for a barrel of oil spiked $11 to settle at $138.54, per barrel, valuing Vitol's oil holding at nearly $8 billion.
Commission documents do not show how much Vitol had put down to acquire that many contracts. Nymex allows traders to acquire contracts by putting up margins, which can amount to a fraction of the actual worth.
So-called "swap dealers" operate in oil markets by investing on behalf of hedge funds and wealthy individuals who have no plans to take delivery, or buy an actual contract for oil.
The commission's data show that at the end of July, just four swap dealers held one-third of all Nymex oil contracts that bet prices would increase.
Last month, the commission reclassified a huge oil trader as a noncommercial speculator. Industry analysts immediately began to rethink what might be moving oil prices.
Commodities traders rely on weekly reports from the commission that classifies market players as commercial or speculative, without releasing names.
Those reports are coming under increased scrutiny as traders begin to question the transparency of the market.
It is difficult to classify market players, however, because some banks and hedge funds actually own infrastructure, such as storage tanks and pipelines and power plants. Like airlines and other businesses that try to protect themselves from crude price swings, they too may be hedging.
Vitol spokeswoman Victoria Dix declined comment to the Post. Vitol said in a statement that it had not been contacted by the commission about its classification.
The commission continues to pore over a massive amount of data submitted by large traders and it is asking for additional information.

Copyright 2008 The Associated Press. The information contained in the AP news report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press. Active hyperlinks have been inserted by AOL.

2008-08-21 15:44:28

Are we going to see oil drop to $50 per barrel next week??

As also what about gas prices?

Pressure is still down on Oil and Gas prices, with liquidations from Hedge Funds and Banks. Plus if USD Index strength is half way to a top, and stocks are half way to a bottom, then both are Oil negative. (Eur/Usd down = Oil down).

I see Oil entering a sideways period after a low is set, not an immediate jump to test a new high. It would be great to see prices reach the $50-60 range, to load up long.

Yup. S&P 500 at 1970s levels and oil at 200. Sounds good.

If the oil price did crash, experts agree that it would deal a serious blow to new energy projects and economic development projects in exporting countries.analysts say opec countries have been alarmed by falling oil prices and want a production cut to prop up members national budgets that only months ago were bulging with hundreds of billions in petrodollars.

This thread's been dead for a while but I think it is about time to bring it back. Crude price reaching historic levels, $55.40. Where do you see this going? Some have said it might reach $16, but some others are against that theory and believe it will be triggered anytime.

good question though...i'm not familiarized yet with the oil subject

I want to now actually wich are trhe reasons that lead where the oil price is going. As far as i know, it depends on the quantity of barrels that the OPEC decide to place on the market, so the price depends on the supply. is that correct?

this is my chart before
Crude Oil Inventories news

pls update for next week

i see 27.00
i will updat my idea after market close

don`t you see above 40s b4 down to 27?
27 is very scary,,,,,,,,for some producers breakeven is above 30 usd per barrel also if 27 is for nymex then persian gulf oil is below 20!

we need daliy close above 40.80 to test 45.00 area
but u must know the price on chart is one 200 or 15 or 50 it is not matter

but be careful we ar at end year
any way i will put my idea later

i have 3 long posn at 39.94.....39.53..........38.09
holding them for few days now
looking for 41.45 to exit

crude oil will test 40.50 anyway before the second movement
i think exit from all poostiones at 40.50 then watch daily close

2 days ago i set my target at 41.5 according to below chart but latter i changed my target to 44 and now market been back and i missed this move to sell out.
http://i41.tinypic.com/6se2qd.gif

i just quit all my long oil and all +ve
god bless america

we r going to 31.00 level first if we see 4h candel close under 37.50