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The View DownRiver

  • #101
  • Feb 26, 2007 9:57am Feb 26, 2007 9:57am
Tradeit,

This is where your Market Profile for Metatrader can be quite handy. You see it contains three color parts: olive for Asia session, Blue - for Europe and Red - for US. When price riches extreme levels for Asian session and/or for last US session, you should think if this level is going to break or hold. You might anticipate by looking at the news calendar and consulting with options levels, like DRT suggested. Or you can have some other system to draw support and resistance as I do with Drummond levels.

Wookey

Quoting DownRiverTrader
As you trade today, what are you thinking in terms of value right now. In general, its Monday, there is no meaningful data, we know the options players are likely done now that 10:00 NY cut has passsed. We know that there is a slew of USD data tommorrow. So what do you think is likely to happen on the curve today. If it goes to an extreme do you think it will keep going up or down or will it return to value.


If you have looked at any of the i"Type of Day" nformation I have given, you would now know that approximately 94% of all days are NOT trend days. Where are your odds today?
Attached Image
Wookey
  • #102
  • Feb 26, 2007 10:15am Feb 26, 2007 10:15am
I am asked to post the Market Profile indicator for Metatrader, so here it is. Remember to not rely on its Value Area levels they are wrong.

Wookey
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 market profile.mq4   6 KB | 510 downloads
Wookey
  • #103
  • Feb 26, 2007 10:38am Feb 26, 2007 10:38am
I use Creative Imagination in the exact way I explained in the earlier post. This is all a trader needs to do in my opinion.

As time goes on, I will develop this a little.

Quoting Lenny
DRT,

Do you still plan to post number of mental exercises that you do? I saw a couple of general posts about the Mental Approach but not any exersises that you do.

Thanks
  • #104
  • Feb 26, 2007 10:43am Feb 26, 2007 10:43am
Looks like you are on the right track.

Something that I do not understand...maybe someone can help. Why is it that most of the discussion is about MT on here. Is this a forum designed for that product or something?


Quoting wookey
Tradeit,

This is where your Market Profile for Metatrader can be quite handy. You see it contains three color parts: olive for Asia session, Blue - for Europe and Red - for US. When price riches extreme levels for Asian session and/or for last US session, you should think if this level is going to break or hold. You might anticipate by looking at the news calendar and consulting with options levels, like DRT suggested. Or you can have some other system to draw support and resistance as I do with Drummond levels.

Wookey
  • #105
  • Feb 26, 2007 10:55am Feb 26, 2007 10:55am
DRT, thanks, I am really trying hard to improve my trading.

The most of forex traders ere and other forums use Metatrader. It's got one important advantage before any other programs, it's free. Many retail forex brokers use Metatrader as their primary trading tool. I like TradeStation too but their forex broker: Forex.com is bad. So, don't be afraid, this forum is not dedicated to MetaTrader, just most of the traders around here use it.

Wookey

Quoting DownRiverTrader
Looks like you are on the right track.

Something that I do not understand...maybe someone can help. Why is it that most of the discussion is about MT on here. Is this a forum designed for that product or something?
Wookey
  • #106
  • Feb 26, 2007 10:58am Feb 26, 2007 10:58am
  •  tesla
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Friendly Neighborhood Programmer | 533 Posts
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Something that I do not understand...maybe someone can help. Why is it that most of the discussion is about MT on here. Is this a forum designed for that product or something?
Nope, but for most of us small-fry, it's the most robust charting platform we can get our hands on for free. Many people, even if they don't trade with a MetaTrader broker, use MetaTrader for charting. I'm one of those people.
  • #107
  • Feb 26, 2007 11:12am Feb 26, 2007 11:12am
Okay. Thanks I understand.
  • #108
  • Feb 26, 2007 11:33am Feb 26, 2007 11:33am
  •  tesla
  • Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Friendly Neighborhood Programmer | 533 Posts
Quoting DownRiverTrader
As you trade today, what are you thinking in terms of value right now. In general, its Monday, there is no meaningful data, we know the options players are likely done now that 10:00 NY cut has passsed. We know that there is a slew of USD data tommorrow. So what do you think is likely to happen on the curve today. If it goes to an extreme do you think it will keep going up or down or will it return to value.


If you have looked at any of the i"Type of Day" nformation I have given, you would now know that approximately 94% of all days are NOT trend days. Where are your odds today?
I really appreciated this post, it helps clarify things. You talk about "Type of Day" information. I've hunted through your posts and I'm not finding anything that references 94% non-trending days, or uses other language to say the same thing. Can I get a nudge in the right direction?
  • #109
  • Feb 26, 2007 11:39am Feb 26, 2007 11:39am
Quoting tesla
I really appreciated this post, it helps clarify things. You talk about "Type of Day" information. I've hunted through your posts and I'm not finding anything that references 94% non-trending days, or uses other language to say the same thing. Can I get a nudge in the right direction?
Check this link http://downrivertrader.squarespace.com/days/
  • #110
  • Feb 26, 2007 12:45pm Feb 26, 2007 12:45pm
Okay....so I made the post below at 10:33 AM. EURUSD was trading at 3171. What happened. The bottom of the value curve was tested at exactly 3151 again at 12:31. DID YOU BUY? We are currently trading at 3169. Almost a 20 tick gain. Or were you a novice trader, who saw price collasping and with no plan sold with the herd? If you bought, you took their money. Dealers working the curve today, many days like this. You can build a complete reliable methodology around this and trade when it is quiet. Does it always work. Heck no. But you are comfortable with your risk, you know what most don't know and the odds are very much in your favor. You can not ask for anything else as a MasterTrader.

Just for fun... I included this foolish stochastic osciallator which so many trader rely on to tell them nothing. Would you have risked this move if you were looking at it? You can make that call.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertrader/st_val.PNG



Quoting DownRiverTrader
As you trade today, what are you thinking in terms of value right now. In general, its Monday, there is no meaningful data, we know the options players are likely done now that 10:00 NY cut has passsed. We know that there is a slew of USD data tommorrow. So what do you think is likely to happen on the curve today. If it goes to an extreme do you think it will keep going up or down or will it return to value.


If you have looked at any of the i"Type of Day" nformation I have given, you would now know that approximately 94% of all days are NOT trend days. Where are your odds today?

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertrader/eurusd_day.PNG
  • #111
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:09pm Feb 26, 2007 1:09pm
Want to make sure that I followed your example below. Still learning this value areas. So I hope you do not mind me asking how did we know that we were at the bottom of value curve at 3151? I did see it as retest of a previous low for today which was essentially pull back from Friday's move up.

As I said before I am not trading euro, but if I was I wouldhave not sold it. And nased on the short term time frame of this retest might have gone long. I just want to make sure that I can fit in value area into this example.

Thanks


Quoting DownRiverTrader
Okay....so I made the post below at 10:33 AM. EURUSD was trading at 3171. What happened. The bottom of the value curve was tested at exactly 3151 again at 12:31. DID YOU BUY? We are currently trading at 3169. Almost a 20 tick gain. Or were you a novice trader, who saw price collasping and with no plan sold with the herd? If you bought, you took their money. Dealers working the curve today, many days like this. You can build a complete reliable methodology around this and trade when it is quiet. Does it always work. Heck no. But you are comfortable with your risk, you know what most don't know and the odds are very much in your favor. You can not ask for anything else as a MasterTrader.

Just for fun... I included this foolish stochastic osciallator which so many trader rely on to tell them nothing. Would you have risked this move if you were looking at it? You can make that call.

http://home.comcast.net/~downrivertrader/st_val.PNG
  • #112
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:13pm Feb 26, 2007 1:13pm
Go back and look at the original post at 10:12 or so. I posted a graph of the daily pda analysis. I drew 2 arrows on it. One from the bottom of the curve and one from the top.

Quoting Tradeit
Want to make sure that I followed your example below. Still learning this value areas. So I hope you do not mind me asking how did we know that we were at the bottom of value curve at 3151? I did see it as retest of a previous low for today which was essentially pull back from Friday's move up.

As I said before I am not trading euro, but if I was I wouldhave not sold it. And nased on the short term time frame of this retest might have gone long. I just want to make sure that I can fit in value area into this example.

Thanks
  • #113
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:14pm Feb 26, 2007 1:14pm
Tradeit,

What pair are you trading today?
  • #114
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:22pm Feb 26, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Go back and look at the original post at 10:12 or so. I posted a graph of the daily pda analysis. I drew 2 arrows on it. One from the bottom of the curve and one from the top.
I did. So basically daily low is a bottom of a curve. So am I crroect to take from the above is value area is a daily range? Sorry for this struggling. For some reason I just cannot nail it

The retest was looking for more buyers. Herd might have thought that it was a momentum change and started placing shorts. I would probably would have anticipated more players jumping in if the Market went to 45 (flase breakout/ shakeout) to gather more shorts and catch the stops in those areas as well.
  • #115
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:22pm Feb 26, 2007 1:22pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Tradeit,

What pair are you trading today?
GBPUSD. Actually had the similar pattern and I got in at 9614 long.
  • #116
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:24pm Feb 26, 2007 1:24pm
HI guys .this man as something to teach Us so sit back and let the journey begin......dont try and skip chapters by getting to-much head of yourselfs,this teacher as put allot of time and thought into his lessons i am amazed at the amount of work he as already done.like the book think and grown rick the secret is inside every chapter take the time to read and learn....
  • #117
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:32pm Feb 26, 2007 1:32pm
Quoting Tradeit
I did. So basically daily low is a bottom of a curve. So am I crroect to take from the above is value area is a daily range? Sorry for this struggling. For some reason I just cannot nail it
I happen to post the daily chart, so yes it was the daily price distribution curve. If I had posted a 30 minute chart, we would have been discussing the 30 minute curve for instance. I usually don't look at anything shorter than a daily for PDA.

Quote

The retest was looking for more buyers. Herd might have thought that it was a momentum change and started placing shorts. I would probably would have anticipated more players jumping in if the Market went to 45 (flase breakout/ shakeout) to gather more shorts and catch the stops in those areas as well.

Yes the market auctioned lower looking for buyers. It found them. The point is don't anticipate what you are calling players to "jump" on at a time like this. A time like I described in the original post. You are now to smart for that.


ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BONDS. I DOUBT USD IS GOING TO GATHER MUCH STEAM WHEN BOND YIELDS ARE FALLING. IT WAS A PERFECT PLACE FOR A LONG ENTRY. AS I LOOK, NOW WE ARE 3177.
  • #118
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:35pm Feb 26, 2007 1:35pm
So wookey, tell me what you are doing to improve your trading?

Quoting wookey
DRT, thanks, I am really trying hard to improve my trading.

The most of forex traders ere and other forums use Metatrader. It's got one important advantage before any other programs, it's free. Many retail forex brokers use Metatrader as their primary trading tool. I like TradeStation too but their forex broker: Forex.com is bad. So, don't be afraid, this forum is not dedicated to MetaTrader, just most of the traders around here use it.

Wookey
  • #119
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:51pm Feb 26, 2007 1:51pm
Quoting DownRiverTrader
Yes the market auctioned lower looking for buyers. It found them. The point is don't anticipate what you are calling players to "jump" on at a time like this. A time like I described in the original post. You are now to smart for that.


ALSO KEEP AN EYE ON THE BONDS. I DOUBT USD IS GOING TO GATHER MUCH STEAM WHEN BOND YIELDS ARE FALLING. IT WAS A PERFECT PLACE FOR A LONG ENTRY. AS I LOOK, NOW WE ARE 3177.
Just to make sure that we are on the smae page (hopefully we are getting there so I would not bother you with "simplistic" questions).

Probability wise. Today is Monday. There is no reports scheduled until tomorrow. First sign that the day is slow. Second, all the options were done by 10am. Third, most of the days qualify as Normal, Neutral, Non-Trending and therfore ranges within the value curve area. Fourth, Bonds were showing down movement. We took all this information and when the low of the day was retested, we knew we were in a good position to place LONG.

IS THIS CORRECT?
  • #120
  • Feb 26, 2007 1:57pm Feb 26, 2007 1:57pm
Yes. And now we are at the top of the curve. Clear your mind and just ask yourself what makes sense in cases like this.

Quoting Tradeit
Just to make sure that we are on the smae page (hopefully we are getting there so I would not bother you with "simplistic" questions).

Probability wise. Today is Monday. There is no reports scheduled until tomorrow. First sign that the day is slow. Second, all the options were done by 10am. Third, most of the days qualify as Normal, Neutral, Non-Trending and therfore ranges within the value curve area. Fourth, Bonds were showing down movement. We took all this information and when the low of the day was retested, we knew we were in a good position to place LONG.

IS THIS CORRECT?
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