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CoG + Ultra Trend System

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  • Post #1
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  • First Post: Oct 9, 2008 1:00pm Oct 9, 2008 1:00pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
Hey guys,
I have been experimenting with the CoG, and have applied an oscillator indicator called the "Ultra Trend" that is part of a robotic forex trading system. Anyone is free to experiment themselves with this setup, I have found that the interior crosses (crosses around 15) represent a potential trend change. These crosses usually return in excess of 100 pips, if you enter directly after the cross.
My only problem using this system is being alerted as to when the actual crosses occur. The indicator is compiled, thus it cannot be modified to give an alert/popup when a cross occurs. This is somewhat unfortunate, and I would be grateful if anyone may have a modified version of this indicator that allows for audible alerts / email alerts.

The trading logic is as follow:

I normally look for trades in the direction of the main "CoG Moving Average" which is a 240 period (period of the CoG) exponential moving average. This allows for a high probability trading opportunity when the Ultra Trend crosses. So blue line crosses down, with price underneath the CoG "trend" for a sell; and blue line crosses up, with price above the CoG "trend" for a long position.
You can however take positions that are irrespective of the CoG trend, and trade in the direction of the cross. I have run into trouble with this, as it is likely that the Ultra trend will re-cross shortly thereafter in the opposite direction.
The CoG is useful for filtering out the bad crosses. There are in fact many opportunities where a cross that is not in tandem with the CoG MA is profitable. Looking where price is in the CoG channel displays when such an event occurs. Contrary to CoG MA buy when: price is at least below solid black equilibrium line, or lower into green and red bands/zones. Sell opportunities the opposite.
I've been using this system on the 15 min graphs, but it can be expanded out to longer time-frames with similar results.
I really want to try and at least develop a method of alert for the Ultra Trend crosses, and maybe fully automate the system with someone's assistance.
I've marked the entrance and exit points on the graph. What I normally do is enter at a cross, and wait to ensure it doesn't "double cross" in the opposite direction. Then if it meets this clause, I hold on until it reaches the "22" line (for longs) or the "8" line (for shorts)..if the line jumps down and bounces above this line, I liquidate the position, if not I hold on until it hits the "30" line (for longs) or the "2" line (for shorts), rebreaching this line also liquidates the position.
You can also play the crossing of certain levels, like when the line breaches the 8 line, heading up for a buy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ultratrendcog eur_jpy1.gif
Size: 37 KB
  • Post #2
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  • Oct 9, 2008 1:03pm Oct 9, 2008 1:03pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
I forgot to attach the CoG indicator and the Ultra Trend, I've also included them in a template.
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 ULTRA_TREND.ex4   19 KB | 7,749 downloads
File Type: mq4 Center of Gravity 1.mq4   5 KB | 6,142 downloads
 
 
  • Post #3
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  • Oct 9, 2008 1:24pm Oct 9, 2008 1:24pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
Haha wrong graph pic, here is the annotated version:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ultratrendcog eur_jpy2.gif
Size: 34 KB
 
 
  • Post #4
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  • Oct 9, 2008 2:20pm Oct 9, 2008 2:20pm
  •  Ronald Raygun
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: 32 y/o Investor/Trader/Programmer | 5,016 Posts
Are you aware that COG repaints heavily? Try running it through the http://www.forexfactory.com/images/attach/zip.gif Trading simulator.zip watch as the COG curves according to the market.
 
 
  • Post #5
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  • Oct 9, 2008 2:29pm Oct 9, 2008 2:29pm
  •  BenQ
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Member | 1,050 Posts
Post your template so I can see all your settings.
Also, there is a no-repaint version of COG. I have it somewhere in a platform and will post when I find it.
 
 
  • Post #6
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  • Oct 9, 2008 2:46pm Oct 9, 2008 2:46pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
I'm aware that the CoG repaints, when a cross occurs respective to the CoG, I'm referring to where price is on the CoG AT THE EVENT of the ultra trend cross. I find that it is normally either above/below the black equilibrium line, and below/above the green line respectively.
 
 
  • Post #7
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  • Oct 9, 2008 2:55pm Oct 9, 2008 2:55pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
Here is the template for the main indicator window...you'll need to add the Ultra Trend indicator subsequent to the template. For whatever reason it won't let me save/upload the template with the Ultra Trend loaded on the template (might be a copy prevention issue). You can save the template with the Ultra Trend thereafter and load it on other charts on your own metatrader platform.
Attached File(s)
File Type: tpl center of gravity3.tpl   3 KB | 2,923 downloads
 
 
  • Post #8
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  • Oct 9, 2008 2:57pm Oct 9, 2008 2:57pm
  •  BenQ
  • | Joined Jun 2006 | Status: Member | 1,050 Posts
I think attached is the COG that does not repaint. I'm not 100% sure though, there may be another version floating around.

Also attached is the UT Fast code, which I think is the same as your UltraTrend.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 JB Center of Gravity.mq4   6 KB | 4,959 downloads
File Type: mq4 UT_FAST.mq4   26 KB | 5,600 downloads
 
 
  • Post #9
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  • Oct 9, 2008 3:38pm Oct 9, 2008 3:38pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
update: EURJPY crossed about 30 mins ago, took a short position, its good for about 100 pips at the moment, approaching the "8" level, position management (hold, liquidate) based on behavior around this level.
 
 
  • Post #10
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  • Oct 9, 2008 3:40pm Oct 9, 2008 3:40pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
pairs about to potentially cross: AUDUSD, GBPJPY

Pairs to watch for eventually possible crosses within a few hours: EURAUD, GBPUSD,
 
 
  • Post #11
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  • Oct 9, 2008 3:54pm Oct 9, 2008 3:54pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
I missed the AUDUSD cross, but I caught the GBP/JPY cross...it was good for 100 pips. Generally, I manually take the profits, however in a fast paced market (especially with the yen cross pairs), I place a 100 pip tp to combat the volatility/draw back.
 
 
  • Post #12
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  • Oct 10, 2008 4:36am Oct 10, 2008 4:36am
  •  jgadefelth
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trillion Dollar Man | 1,494 Posts
Hi!

intresting strategy try the non repainter that was posted here it comes from another thread that also discussed the cog, the cog trend is it the red big line ?


can you post some more trades and show me ?


best regards
 
 
  • Post #13
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  • Oct 10, 2008 9:37am Oct 10, 2008 9:37am
  •  neurus
  • | Joined Apr 2007 | Status: Member | 144 Posts
Could you post others charts?thanks
 
 
  • Post #14
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  • Oct 10, 2008 10:35am Oct 10, 2008 10:35am
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
This system will work when the market is either trading up or down; that is a short choppy channel will put out signals, but they might be worth 10 pips or less if you get a tight spread. I forgot to mention that.

Here is another graph of a trade I just did in demo with the GBPJPY, notice that even though price was below the CoG moving average I still took the trade. I was careful to watch it to catch a quick reversal, and set a tp at 100 pips. This one slightly surprised me, as it shot upwards quicker than I had anticipated. It hit my tp within 5 minutes of placing the trade. I changed my CoG to the non-repainting static CoG provided by another member. Normally, if a cross occurs that is fairly far away from the blue line (high above it for a buy cross, or low below it for a sell cross), I'll take it as an indication of a bad trade. Normally, these events preempt another cross in the opposite direction, which is usually a good trade.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ultratrendcog eur_jpy3.gif
Size: 57 KB
 
 
  • Post #15
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  • Oct 12, 2008 12:06am Oct 12, 2008 12:06am
  •  geneticsjms
  • | Joined Jul 2006 | Status: Member | 51 Posts
i dont find much wrong with the original cog, yes it can change its prediction levels as the markets develop, but over a few days of trading with it, it has proven quite good. it can show up to date areas where the price has deviated to far too fast and is bound for a pull back. but in the end markets can make any movement they want.

jms
 
 
  • Post #16
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  • Oct 12, 2008 6:22pm Oct 12, 2008 6:22pm
  •  rainingpips
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Metered Temerity | 315 Posts
That's valid that the market can "choose" to go wherever it pleases, however I have done extensive back testing with the Ultra Trend crossings with the current settings. What I have found is that, assuming proper due diligence of the crossings (e.g. false crosses), the system pumps out signals worth at least 100 pips, if not many more in most instances. The only time a signal will not provide these results on a consistent basis is if you take a cross that is contrary to the moving average direction.
 
 
  • Post #17
  • Quote
  • Oct 14, 2008 11:54pm Oct 14, 2008 11:54pm
  •  kingcrab
  • | Joined May 2006 | Status: Member | 27 Posts
looks good raining pips,what ma's are on yuor charts please
 
 
  • Post #18
  • Quote
  • Aug 12, 2009 11:30am Aug 12, 2009 11:30am
  •  Petar_Serbia
  • | Commercial Member | Joined May 2009 | 5,750 Posts
Great system,i will try to advanced it soon,but today and yesterday all 3 pairs +100 pips,amazing...

My TP is 100 pips and my SL is usually 50 pips...

Cheers
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge

Name: ultra.gif
Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: ultra1.gif
Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge

Name: ultra2.gif
Size: 23 KB
"Buy on fear, sell on greed !!!
 
 
  • Post #19
  • Quote
  • Dec 18, 2009 2:55pm Dec 18, 2009 2:55pm
  •  MQL4Engineer
  • | Joined Dec 2009 | Status: Member | 5 Posts
Hi,

This strategy looks really interesting - is anyone still using it?
I'm thinking about writing an EA for it but before I would like to know if it's worth it.
 
 
  • Post #20
  • Quote
  • Dec 20, 2009 8:54am Dec 20, 2009 8:54am
  •  colombino
  • | Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Member | 155 Posts
Hi,
I you wanna visualy backtest the CoG indicator, I recommend you trading simulator.

Good explanation about CoG is here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...8&postcount=18

As far as I remember my old visual tests, the CoG behaves best with setting of m = 2.
 
 
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