We had a fantastic 1st day in the new room. Here are some comments...
"makes me about +46 pleased with that"
"took 50 on gold"
"(08:29):
"just closed crude 98.17 - 96.71 +146"
"out of crude 108"
"29 pips on ftse"
"Sorry guys got kicked out, Profit taken at WS1 on FTSE"
"Thanks ...Gold +29...crude+106...usd jpy+14...total...+149"
"out for 29 monkey. cheers"
"117pips on gold, cable, swiss and e/jpy for mr&mrs spitfire!"
"just back gutted closed gold 50 to early my girl can walk to school tommorow"
"50 pips today guys thank you"
"closed half of gold with 58"
Following some big falls in brent crude yesterday, crude still looks weak. It is still below the 15 min 20 and the 15 min 50 moving average. A break above the 15 min 20 and support of the 90.20 area would be a sign for a small pullback towards weekly pivot (ws3). The 252 CCI has been down for a long time, and although the crude still looks weak, how much more can it go without a pullback.
With crude starting to fall again, and gold just below the daily pivot at 846 if the 5 min 20 MA can cross we may see a play down to WS2 at 834.60. Alternatively, a break above the daily pivot at 846.50 with a 123 move may see a play to WS1.
EURUSD has broken above the daily pivot. If gold can break above the pivot a long on EURUSD, is setup for good play to 1.3950
GBPUSD has broken up to with the angle of the 1 hour moving averages showing some strength in a move north. A break of 1.7730 with support of the WS2 would be a good sign of some
USDJPY 105.10 is the key level, is the 63 CCI can break back down for a short play.
Thanks Nedal, was a godd morning but gold and crdue did not correlate so not the big bang we were looking for. Still, managed to bank few pips on the gold with the exit where the red cross is.
The chat room is just to share ideas, look for opportunites & meet some new people in a chat enviroment.
Thanks for your message. I'll attempt to go through my entries as I think this is as equally important when deciding upon targets. Well as you know, having read FXP's thread, the entry criteria, trade with the longer term CCI, use the shorter CCI to get you in with a 123 move usually being a safer option to confirm s/r. Even though, often the case may be that waiting for the 123 move to happen means loosing out on a few pips.
When I see an opportunity, the first thing I look at is where could it go, then if that is to occur, where should it not go. When I first started few years back, I placed every trade with a positive r/r ratio or stops being in the right place. As many, doubled my account, then get cheeky, forgot all about r/r and lost the lot. What I have learnt, above everything else is that stops NEED to be in the right place. You're looking at this trade, or the opportunity to trade because you feel that the instrument will move to X price. Have belief in yourself, because what you'll find is that more often that not, you're right. Why do so many novices get burnt?? From speaking to various new traders, it's too tight stops! Now, having a good r/r ratio is one thing, and having the stops in the right place is another. Or is it? Well, firstly, I guess what is a good r/r ratio, 1:5, 1:2 or 1:1.5. This is a personal matter but personally I'm happy with the last two. The way I manage the trades, is to close 1/2 the position at target 1, and 1/2 at target 2 (or 1/3 if there's three targets). To clarify, I think having a good r/r is great, I'd say a minimum of 1:5 but above all the stops need to be above/below previous lows/highs and/or s/r levels. Yes it may not hit the level before hitting your target, but that's what you want, right? A level that is unlikely to hit if your analysis is right.
As for where I get my target levels from, usually the 1st target is on the 5/15 min chart then the rest is on the time frame above. Something to note is that I often reduce my SL to break even so that my risk is minimal. OK, so the opportunity cost is there, you could have banked £10 per point an 100 pip, instead you took 100 @ £5. But, in my opinion, that's the money management side of trading. Plus you have given youself the opportunity to maximise you pips. This way, as your stake increases from say £10 to £20, you're still banking 100 pips @ £10 when closing 1/2 a position.
In relation to the thread, the problem I am finding is trying to chat in the room, and trade whilst posting setups on here. In particular, the shorter time frames, as often by the time you have posted, the moves have started. This is something a few of us are working on and hopefully we should have a setup to accommodate for this.
I hope this helps answer your questions, if you would like to discuss the matter in more detail, feel free to add me on Skype: hemal_pandya
Best Regards,
H
Ignored
Hi Hemal,
Thanks for your detailed reply, I found it very informative. Sorry I did'nt respond sooner as I've been away from my PC and only caught up with this thread today!
I have noticed that both yourself and FXP are trading in a 'chat room'. Is this the same chat room? If so, would it be possible to be given access to this resource? As I have never used a 'chat room' before any advice you could offer would be much appreciated!
Good morning everyone, I hope that you all had a good weekend.
Following a volatile day in the markets with Non Farm Payroll crude is still in a strong downtrend with our 4 hour moving averages still very stretched. We have a daily support coming in at $87. On the shorter time frame, we some resistance at the $89.80 level for which we need to see a break of the $88.90 mark. I would be concerned about shorting crude at this level because of the gaps to the upside, however we may see a play down to the support at $87.
Gold is also still on a down trend on the 1 hr chart, holding resistance of the daily 20 ma and support of the daily 50ma at $826. A break of 829 or $826 may see a play down to $819. The upside break of $835 may see an attack towards $845.
EURUSD is setup similar to the 1hr crude chart. It is still in a strong downtrend with the immediate support at 1.3600. The 252 CCI has been down for sometime and it does not seem to have the momentum to go much lower at the moment. However a break of 1.3580 may see a move towards the weekly 200 ma at 1.3400. A break of 1.3650 may see an attack to close the gaps on the moving averages, with a first target of 1.3720.
Cable is also still in a down trend, with the daily lows at around 1.7450. A break of ds2 at at 1.7560 would signal that it wants to go lower towards the daily support. However, with so much red on the daily chart, this certainly needs a pullback. A break of ds1 at 1.7610 may see a move higher with a first target of 1.7660
We have seen some big falls in Brent crude yesterday down to 83.50. An aggressive upside break of 85.70 with a 123 move may see a play to 88. Alternatively, if the 252 CCI can break above 0 the fall back through with the 63 CCI. We have seen some significant selling on the longer term crude so I would be concerned about a shot at this level.
As I type crude has broken the 85.70 level, we would like to see it slightly higher just to show some price action, let the 5 minute moving averages catch up with a possible play to 87.50/88 area if it is going to materialize.
Gold is boxed in above the weekly pivot and looks attractive to the upside if crude moves higher. There is some resistance above at 865 area and the 4 hour 20 and 871.
EURUSD has fallen a significant way and has broken the 1hr 20 MA to the upside. If gold moves higher we could see an attack towards 1.3660.
Cable is setup similar to EURUSD, in that it has broken the 1 hour 20 MA. I would be looking a break of the immediate highs at 1.7640 with a retracement to the 1 hour 50 MA before looking for a long position.
Crude is still looking weak this morning, we can see some early sellers starting to push the price down to 83.40. For a continuation move we are looking for a slight retracement before a then a break of ws1. Alternatively a break of the hourly 50mma for a long position.
Gold is teasing us, just testing the support line from 857. Although it broke through the pivot, we need to see a break of the support line and a possible 123 move before a short. We are in a strong uptrend and 900 is in sight. Be careful as it has moved a long way.
EURUSD We are still in a strong down trend and although the hourly 20 & 50 ma have crossed to the upside, if gold get tired at the current level EURUSD will continue it decent. It has broken through the support line we are looking for a 123 move to confirm before looking for a short.
GBPUSD is looking weak as it has aggressively broken through the hourly 20 & 50 ma. If it retraces and finds resistance at the support line around the 1.7480 level this may be a sign for further weakness
With crude under the daily pivot point and a big gap to the lows at 81.50 it looks attractive to the downside.
Gold has retraced to 893 and is sitting on the 15m 200ma with a support line at 890. A break of this could see a play to 884. We are in a bid market and we could be just waiting for the four hourly 20ma before another move up. If this is to occur the 84 CCI will get you in ideally with a 123 move above the daily pivot.
EURUSD looks like it wants to retrace like USDCHF yesterday. We have an upside gap to 1.3900. A break of 1.3705 may see a play to the 1.3750 area. If it breaks this the next target would be the 1.3900 area. Alternatively a break and 123 of the 1.3600 area would see a potential short.
Cable has made a move early this morning and now forming in to a higher low. With the support around 1.7200 area and the resistance at the hourly 20 ma, we are looking for a clear setup before taking a position.
As I type we are seeing some early moves in crude and gold.
Crude is breaking down and has broken the 15 min 20 ma on the 5 min chart. If anyone is short a target price of $78 would be where we expect some support with the hourly moving averages. We above the pivot and the hourly moving averages have crossed. This is a bearish sign and if the price holds around the figure we may see an attack of the four hourly 20 ma. If this breaks we have a big upside potential to the four hourly 50 ma.
Gold has made lower lows on the 5 min chart and looks like it wants to re test the lows at $834, however there is not much price action. If it breaks the hourly 20 ma, we may see a play up to R1 at 869.
EURUSD is overbought on the shorter term, 5 min chart. It looks like it is tired and we may see a slight retracement back to the hourly 20 ma. It is worth looking at the bigger picture here, as we can see with the angle of the four hourly 20 & 50 ma they may cross. The upside medium term target would be 1.3980
Cable is also overbought on the shorter term charts and we may see a pullback if the 5 and 15 min 20 ma can cross. For the medium term, a target price of 1.7716 is available. Remember to buy after red and sell after green.
Good morning ladies and gentlemen, I trust you are all well.
We have seen some continued selling in Brent Crude yesterday testing the $70 level. On the hourly chart, it seams that it may be finding some support at the weekly pivot. A break of the small support line at $71 may see a continuation play. Alternatively if we see a break of the 15 min 50 ma we may see a play north testing the four hourly 20ma.
Gold look like it is in a channel between $856 and $830. On the 5 min chart it looks rather week and seams that it wants to re-test the $836 mark.
Cable as created a double top on the hourly chart and doesn’t look like it want to go much higher. We have some support with the weekly pivot just below. If it can break through this at 1.7200 we may see an opportunity for a medium term position, re-testing the lows of 1.67. For a long position, look for a break above the four hourly 20 ma.
EURUSD has seen an early move testing S1 and could be creating a double bottom on the 5 min chart. For a short we are looking at the break of s1 for a short position or a break of the 15 min 20 ma for a long. In my opinion, it’s one to stay away from until we get a clearer setup
Crude has recovered some of its losses from yesterday and looks rather bid. If it breaks the resistance line from the previous two highs at $70.50 we may see a play up to $71.50 as a first target. Alternatively if it breaks the daily pivot at $69 and does a 123 move we may see a play south re-testing the lows at $66
Gold has moved aggressively over the past twenty four hours and is finding a bit of support of the support line from the lows at $786. If it holds this support we may see a play up to $813. If it breaks the support line we may see a move down to $785.
EURUSD is in a triangle on the 15 minute chart. We are in a down trend so a break of 1.3420 and a small 1234 move may see a play down to 1.3325. The upside potential is limited due to the fact that the four hourly 20 ma is just above.
GBPUSD has some immediate resistance at 1.7350; we are looking for a break of this before taking a long position. Alternatively, a break of the daily pivot at 1.7280 may see a play down to the weekly pivot at 1.7200.
