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DislikedThanks for the Bear picture, great image! The Bears have been awoken from hibernation and are looking to slaughter herds of Bulls too foolish and arrogant to step aside.
The chart posted below is for the benefit of those that are wise enough to leave their egos behind, and enjoy trading a strong down trend for years to come. This is what happens when cycles that have taken 310 years, 87 years, 34 years, 21 years, and 8 years climaxed in 2000, and are now due for an equally large correction. If this brings out feelings of denial or anger, those are the first two steps in dealing with grief, you'll get over. Don't bother flaming me, it is not my problem.
So, if you have any delusions about things ‘getting better’ anytime soon out there - think again.
My apologies if I ruined your day by posting this, but the sooner you start making changes in your life the better you will be prepared further down the line as we are heading into the next Great Depression.
The shorting opportunity has been awesome and is far from over, I'll still bank profits and even play expected counter-trend rallies, but the bottom is measured to be 2014. Why?
"Wave 5 of (3) will be nearly as bad as wave 3 of (3). After that we get a period of recovery, which will be wave (4) and some people will naturally confuse that with the beginnings of a new bull market. That might go on for a few months and then will be rudely interrupted by wave (5) of primary 1. This one will be ugly and it’ll take the averages down by at least 2000 points. And remember that we have 4 more primary waves to go - this is only primary wave 1 of cycle wave c. This bear market is just getting warmed up, and is not going to end until about 2014" - evil speculator
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DislikedThanks for the Bear picture, great image! The Bears have been awoken from hibernation and are looking to slaughter herds of Bulls too foolish and arrogant to step aside.
The chart posted below is for the benefit of those that are wise enough to leave their egos behind, and enjoy trading a strong down trend for years to come. This is what happens when cycles that have taken 310 years, 87 years, 34 years, 21 years, and 8 years climaxed in 2000, and are now due for an equally large correction. If this brings out feelings of denial or anger, those are the first two steps in dealing with grief, you'll get over. Don't bother flaming me, it is not my problem.
So, if you have any delusions about things ‘getting better’ anytime soon out there - think again.
My apologies if I ruined your day by posting this, but the sooner you start making changes in your life the better you will be prepared further down the line as we are heading into the next Great Depression.
The shorting opportunity has been awesome and is far from over, I'll still bank profits and even play expected counter-trend rallies, but the bottom is measured to be 2014. Why?
"Wave 5 of (3) will be nearly as bad as wave 3 of (3). After that we get a period of recovery, which will be wave (4) and some people will naturally confuse that with the beginnings of a new bull market. That might go on for a few months and then will be rudely interrupted by wave (5) of primary 1. This one will be ugly and it’ll take the averages down by at least 2000 points. And remember that we have 4 more primary waves to go - this is only primary wave 1 of cycle wave c. This bear market is just getting warmed up, and is not going to end until about 2014" - evil speculator
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DislikedSo what makes you think that you can use EW in this most complex time, and forcast a bottom in 2014?
Am I saying that we going to enter a fresh bull market anytime soon? Absolutely not! However, I think this decline will play out much faster than most think. After that we are looking at a very slow incline. But giving the exact year of the ultimate bottom? Impossible.Ignored
DislikedDJIA @ 2014??? U r getting ridiculous for this one...Buddy SonicIgnored
DislikedFirst, the 2014 date is not from Prechter - you assumed that incorrectly, (although Prechter says 2015), it is from Evil Speculator. The source was quoted.Ignored
QuoteDislikedA third independent firm puts the bottom at 2016 based on demographics, I'll expand on that later. 3 experts say 2014 to 2016 with reasoning, and there are more. Where is your reasoning?
QuoteDislikedSecond, wave structure is the most important aspect - not dates. However, date targets more often than not have Fibonacci relationships. I suggest you study Fibo. Targets only provide guidelines for relationships to determine objectives, so a trader can gauge progress.
QuoteDislikedThird, can you back up the statement the Prechter missed the call for Golds move up a few years ago? Because I have when the EWI precious metals team said it was the last move of the Gold bull, and called the turn to bear the week it happened. So post your proof please.
DislikedThese same Elliot Waves call for Dow 100,000 points by 2,100, I've read that somewhere..
Maybe I'd buy something and note the broker's password in my will for the kids of my kids' kids.Ignored
QuoteDislikedQ: Will the bear market be similar to the one that followed the peak of 1720?
Bob Prechter: Similar, yes, but while the bear market of the 1700s produced 64 years of a zigzag pattern, a very simple down-up-down shape, this one is likely to be a sideways pattern, which will manifest as plummeting major declines punctuated by tremendous rallies back to near or slightly past the old highs. If you take a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average chart from 1966 to 1982, you can get an idea of what I'm expecting. But it will occur on a larger scale.
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2. Equities become cheap slowly. The average duration of bear markets has been 14 years, with the much more rapid 1929-32 episode, when equities went down 89%, the exception. Today’s message: we are in year 8 of a 14 year bear market.
source: http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008...draaisma-land/
QuoteDislikedIn short, trading is all about putting probabilities on your side, not perfection.
DislikedHere is an article from Teun Draaisma, Morgan Stanley’s European strategist who wrote a book, Anatomy of the Bear, after a study of 100 years of bear markets.
His date: 2014
The Kondratieff Long Wave analysis people also put 2015 as a cycle date based on repeated patterns for 200 years.
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QuoteDisliked3. Sentiment is not hugely negative at the bottom of the bear market. The popular myth that there are no bulls left at the bottom of the bear market is wrong. Many market commentators are correctly bullish right at the bottom of the bear market. Popular myth has it that talk of ‘equities are dead’ and ‘there is no future for equities’ should be widespread and are classic signals of the end of the bear market. This is far from the truth, it turns out. In related fashion, there is no climactic last and final sell-off on high volumes. Quite the contrary, the final slump is on lower and lower volumes. Subsequent higher volumes at higher levels confirm the bear market is over, with hindsight. Today’s message: do not take any ‘contrarian comfort’ from the fact that many people are quite bearish on the macro outlook, contrary to conventional wisdom, that is not a classical sign of a bear market trough.
DislikedAll you gave me was one slur opinion taken out of context in a radio interview about gold or oil showing a top before deflation kicks in, did you even read that interview you referenced.Ignored
QuoteDislikedIf you have problems with Evil Speculator, Prechter, or Morgan Stanley take it up with them, I made my point that needs no defense, I have nothing to prove to you. My trading is not based on Prechter, he is an input, but does not send me trade signals, I write my own trade plans from my own experience and wide range of sources.
QuoteDislikedAs for you, I am still waiting for your trading method. I am all ears, tell us what you know from your demo trading experience. I fully acknowledge I can be wrong, and can learn from the most unlikely sources. Now put up....
DislikedBtw, all I'll say is that there is no demo trading for cash only trades. I hold trades for sometimes longer than a year. Too boring, huh? But guess what, I'll last longer than you will.Ignored
DislikedForums are a community, and they benefit from people who give back.Ignored
QuoteDislikedOh really?
It is a fact that anyone can open 1:1 using MetaTrader4 or many other platforms, as you can see from the setup screen shot below:
QuoteDislikedI also trade big money in 1:2 - over long time periods, for example I will re-enter Oil by dollar cost averaging, as a hedge against falling fiat currencies, without worry about being shaken out of a position at $79 on October 14th 2008. Odd you would be so judgmental???
QuoteDislikedYou say you are a Chartist, would you please show us some of your big money demo trade charts with some market insight? Please?
QuoteDislikedI wish as much success for you as I have had, and more. May you be blessed, and may you someday bless others!!!