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At the end it all comes down to the same thing 43 replies

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We're all saying the same thing

  • #21
  • Apr 15, 2008 1:56pm Apr 15, 2008 1:56pm
I agree we all have been around the block I think the key we often need reminding is that we need to stick to a system and stay in control of the game by becoming good at that one set of indicators we are comfortable with. Keep it simple too. The more information we require the harder it is to decipher.
  • #22
  • Apr 21, 2008 11:43pm Apr 21, 2008 11:43pm
Here's another rant

How much of what we say is just a figment of our imagination?

IE)

We KNOW what a pivot point is. We know how to compute it, and socialize about it.... BUT, WHAT IS IT IN REALITY? My vote is, it is meaningless nothing in the abyss of forex folklore.

I further content that almost all TA conversed about (FIBS, pitchforks, MAs) are nothing more than randomness that we ARE FOOLED TO PERCIEVE AS some sort of valuable intellectual property.

Worthless.

I close by saying that all TA is used as a marketing tool for selling books and worthless forex courses. It's junk science, much like Ponds Age Reversal cream.

Oh and one more thing.... all the forex websites with pictures of malibu and tropical beach houses for exclusive wealthy..... is the same as glorifying the one winner of the 150 million Pick 5, and omitting the 150 million losers that made the pot! YEAH!
  • #23
  • Apr 21, 2008 11:52pm Apr 21, 2008 11:52pm
Rant on tdion...........
I agree with most of what you said.... I could NEVER figure out the pivot point thing, and elliot waves.... forget about it.
But I do use MAs for my edge, thats it, no cci, no rsi, no macd.....
just a couple of little lagging indicators.
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #24
  • Apr 22, 2008 11:19pm Apr 22, 2008 11:19pm
Longer timeframes are impossible to predict because future news events are uncertain.... therefore long term trends are luck.

Short term trades are irratic at the sub-cent level and only the central bankers push the rate back and forth.... it is impossible to predict the currency pair's path because there are several forces acting on the instruments, each with different impact.... and not predictable who will do what when.

-TD
  • #25
  • Oct 13, 2008 4:12am Oct 13, 2008 4:12am
Quoting tdion
Longer timeframes are impossible to predict because future news events are uncertain.... therefore long term trends are luck.

Short term trades are irratic at the sub-cent level and only the central bankers push the rate back and forth.... it is impossible to predict the currency pair's path because there are several forces acting on the instruments, each with different impact.... and not predictable who will do what when.

-TD
So..... trading forex in the long run profitable year after year, is impossible?
  • #26
  • Oct 13, 2008 4:25am Oct 13, 2008 4:25am
I actually like this post a lot.

Quoting zek132
The biggest secret in trading, the biggest edge is not a secret at all, it's right in front of you, as you open the forexfactory front page, and i've said it before. News move the market and create plenty of opportunities month after month. And it's not just the scheduled macro data. Just this friday GE came out with worse than expected earnings and this allowed me to make 200 (almost) risk-free pips on GY. You just have to keep your ear to the ground and focus on what market is focusing on. Check the pulse of the market sentiment. simple, it workes and it has always worked. One of the most infamous exaples of news trading would be when Rothschild found out that Napoleon lost the battle of waterloo, come to the LSE with a grim face, and started selling his shares. Maket hit rock bottom the same day, and that's when he started buying back. If only it was that easy.. hehehe
  • #27
  • Oct 13, 2008 4:40am Oct 13, 2008 4:40am
Your edge is you as a trader, not some gambling system that you find. I for one do not believe in mechanical systems.
  • #28
  • Oct 13, 2008 4:41am Oct 13, 2008 4:41am
take a coin toss trading (50-50 outcome) ... how do u actually be profitable in this ?
To Live is the rarest thing in the world , Most people exist , that is all
  • #29
  • Oct 13, 2008 5:33am Oct 13, 2008 5:33am
Social mood drives financial, macroeconomic and political behavior, in contrast to the conventional notion that such events drive social mood.

The counter-intuitive premise of the socionomic hypothesis -- that in contexts of uncertainty, endogenous processes (not exogenous causes) create patterns of social behavior -- has gained attention in academic journals, books, the popular press, at academic conferences and in research funded by the National Science Foundation.

Just look at the markets this past week, negative mood trumped news fundamentals hands down.
  • #30
  • Oct 13, 2008 1:31pm Oct 13, 2008 1:31pm
Quoting tdion
I actually like this post a lot.
tdion what are you still doing here? I thought you were on your way to being a millionaire? I saw several posts from you where you created profitable EA's. What happend?
  • #31
  • Edited 3:05pm Oct 13, 2008 2:20pm | Edited 3:05pm
Quoting zek132
You just have to keep your ear to the ground and focus on what market is focusing on. Check the pulse of the market sentiment. simple, it workes and it has always worked.
I think that if we can do this with discipline that we can know
when to employ our chosen method and when to stand aside.

It seems like most people are seeking a method that is always
in the market. Not necessarily that it always has a trade on but,
that it uses some type of filter as part of the method so, in effect
the system is always in the market. Since parameters need to be
established for such an approach and since the markets will sometimes
be in sync with the parameters and sometimes not be it will, of course,
sometimes profit and sometimes lose. Then, next is trying to figure
out % of wins vs. losses. But, still if it's based on set parameters
then...how can it last?

I'm a newbie and don't know much but, I do see mostly people
here that are just grail-seeking and not really focused on
seriously trying to get better as traders.

The seduction of finding such a method vs. the difficulty of
developing real knowledge and skills (aka edge) will always
win out on forums like this.

Okay, I've got my pecking shield on. But, I think that if you're
honest you'll admit that I'm not completely full of s##t.

Hoping that you choose the road less traveled!



Edit: This topic reminds me of one of my favorite
bits of trading related jargon: robustness.
Ah, the seductive aroma of a grail method/system!
  • #32
  • Oct 13, 2008 3:39pm Oct 13, 2008 3:39pm
Quoting tdion

Oh and one more thing.... all the forex websites with pictures of malibu and tropical beach houses for exclusive wealthy..... is the same as glorifying the one winner of the 150 million Pick 5, and omitting the 150 million losers that made the pot! YEAH!
I know you wrote that on April, but yeah that's so true...

by the way, just to have some fun... the words of wisdom of a friend of mine, down here in Brazil...

"This world crisis has been worse than a divorce! It took away half of my money.... but my wife is still here!!!"



Cheers!
Many share my views with me. But I don't share them with them...
  • #33
  • Oct 13, 2008 3:51pm Oct 13, 2008 3:51pm


Quoting HouseTrader
"This world crisis has been worse than a divorce! It took away half of my money.... but my wife is still here!!!"

@Maarten: Markets are too volatile for my liking now.
  • #34
  • Oct 13, 2008 5:44pm Oct 13, 2008 5:44pm
There are discretionary systems that work more than 50% of the time but are very hard to code. I trade ABC's with the trend. If the trend is up I wait for an ABC pullback to get in long.

Since TDion offered what he's noticed about FF I'll offer what I've noticed. I started trading 4 years ago and I noticed similar things when I started compared to now. When I applied common sense; I said to myself, "I want to win often, but when I lose I want it to be small."
Common sense said to me, "Then you should trade in the direction of the trend and wait for a fractal retracement to get in."

I see FF people trying to make objectified systems based on lagging indicators. My theory is because they can't see the market patterns they must use an indicator, and therefore are destined to fail.
It really is that easy.
  • #35
  • Oct 13, 2008 6:59pm Oct 13, 2008 6:59pm
Perhaps it all comes down to 2 major forces.

Our perception of reality versus the reality of our perceptions.
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #36
  • Oct 13, 2008 8:29pm Oct 13, 2008 8:29pm
I agree with Rastaman.

It's paradoxical at best. I can see easy profitable entries because it's what I "want" to see.
I see FF members that can't create a legitimate discretionary system because it's what I "want" to see.

We're all guilty of seeing life through a filter and trading is no different. However I honestly think the people who are making money trading are seeing life through a better filter than the guys losing money. I mean reality is reality and the less skew applied the better.
It really is that easy.
  • #37
  • Edited 9:44pm Oct 13, 2008 8:41pm | Edited 9:44pm
For the record, I am not saying people aren't making money with forex.

And I'm not saying edges don't exist....

The point was that a lot of the exact same ideas continue to recycle throughout these forums.... and hit the same brick walls each time.

Anyway, no offense to anyone..... I am finished with ruffling people's feathers.
  • #38
  • Oct 13, 2008 10:21pm Oct 13, 2008 10:21pm
Quoting tdion
For the record, I am not saying people aren't making money with forex.

And I'm not saying edges don't exist....

The point was that a lot of the exact same ideas continue to recycle throughout these forums.... and hit the same brick walls each time.

Anyway, no offense to anyone..... I am finished with ruffling people's feathers.

Of course it all gets rehashed over and over again.
This is human nature, frantically trying rationalize our opinion or perhaps make a system so that we can believe in it and then blame it when failure befalls our perceptional system.
We couldn't possibly take bear the responsibility for our own decisions now could we? ROTFL
Starting to see instead of just looking.
  • #39
  • Oct 13, 2008 11:07pm Oct 13, 2008 11:07pm
Quoting The Fxorce
I trade ABC's with the trend. If the trend is up I wait for an ABC pullback to get in long.
Fxorce - We have that in common, I trade the same way. I count 5 waves with the trend, and then a 3 wave correction pattern, then enter long with the trend. It is my bread and butter, and works 75% of the time. When I am wrong, losses are small, I always paln the point of failure or stop positions.

You call it ABC, that is the difference.
  • #40
  • Oct 13, 2008 11:49pm Oct 13, 2008 11:49pm
very well said about consistency.
but u need to open ur eyes and pick the right system, one that really works. Some systems r doomed to fail like martingale ones. if u stick to that, then u die in the end.
Quoting Nick_likes_pips
ahh.. a thread of stressed out/pissed off traders. learning to trade will do that to you. i've been there.

i'm not an expert trader, if ever there was one, but i am consistent and profitable as of late. i only decided to respond to this thread because reading your frustrated posts i remember feeling exactly everything you mentioned.. doubting whether there is a system out there that works, etc.

let me help a bit. basically, any proposed strategy will more than likely work.. as long as you're consistent. yea, same bulls**t you've been hearing other people say. but its the truth.

Try this:

1. Pick your favorite system(even if you doubt its effectiveness, doesnt matter)
2. Write down the rules. dont leave room for any discretionary decisions. your actions(entry, exit, etc) should be rule-based.
3. Pick a currency pair(or a few, whatever)
4. Execute that system EXACTLY as laid out in your rules, stick to your money management. it may be hard to do.. but realize your failure is a lack of following the rules CONSISTENLY.

Evaluate your results. I'm sure you'll be happy with it. The system doesn't matter.

As an example, here's what I do for my basic strategy(i employ a few strategies, but this is one of the big hitters, trend following)

Strategy 1(no fancy name):

Setup:
50 SMA
Stochastics(14,3,3)

Entry:
When MA is sloping up(aka price is in an uptrend), go Long when stochastics are below 20 and cross upward.
When MA is sloping down(aka price is in a downtrend), go Short when stochastics are above 80 and cross downward.
When MA is flat, you can take both Long and Short signals, or neither.

StopLoss:
If going Long, place stop 5-10 pips below last swing low.
If going Short, place stop 5-10 pips above last swing high.

Profit:
Take out half position at 1 to 1 risk reward.
Take out half position at 1 to 2 risk reward.
(i.e. if stoploss = 30pips, take out half position at +30, take second half out at +60)
____

Do I call this the "nick likes pips strategy 10000", hell no. i learned this in an EMAIL lol.
Its dumbfoundedly simple. Are there better strategies out there? More than likely.
But it's not the perfect strategy you need. It's perfect consistency.

Thats it. Now you may read this and say "well if i change this setting.. or do this differently.. blah blah blah". Do what you'd like. Or just pick an y other strategy you know and/or like. The point is, pick ONE STRATEGY and stick to it.

the point im stressing is ANY system will more than likely work if you stick to it consistently. Losses will happen. its inevitable. But with a good system and proper money management, you'll end the month profitably.

Once you realize this, that you can take any system, and make it work as long as you consistenly pull the trigger when you're supposed to... you'll find success.

Goodluck!
make some money, have some fun, leave some footprints
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