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Signals for Simplicity

  • #421
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:41am Oct 12, 2008 1:41am
Could you please post the entire PM here? There could be other nuggets of information which could prove useful.
  • #422
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:20am Oct 12, 2008 2:20am
Pipo PM is added in my previous post, hope Pipo don't mind as this will benefit all idiots like me.
  • #423
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:33am Oct 12, 2008 2:33am
Quoting TickJob
Thank you very much Pipo.

I summarise below what I understand from your pm, hope that it is right now for trading all pairs.
Thats how I see it, where as A and B signals from that setup (Buy bottom sell top)are long on all pairs signal.

Now if you have the buys on top and sells on the bottom and you have A and B signals then you are selling all pairs.

re. speed, I haven't said anything about speed , yes but some move in bigger ranges and overtaking others in the same group.
Please read post #385 about placement order of the currencies.


RR, re my pm it just repeats what the quote in post #418 is saying. I can pm you a copy if you like rather then filling up this thread with repeat posts all saying basically the same thing.
  • #424
  • Edited 7:10am Oct 12, 2008 3:49am | Edited 7:10am
If you want to studi last week.
Here you can find the screenshots I made from week 41 ( 15 min interval)
http://rapidshare.com/files/153259289/week_41.zip.html

correct link
  • #425
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:54am Oct 12, 2008 5:54am
Thanks Pipo.
I put words and spreadsheet together for Post#385, see Post #420 above.
I more used to seeing things together at one glance
  • #426
  • Oct 12, 2008 9:52am Oct 12, 2008 9:52am
TickJob and PIPO
Nice compilation and explanation
Thx
mark
  • #427
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:22pm Oct 12, 2008 1:22pm
Quoting TickJob
Thanks Pipo.
I put words and spreadsheet together for Post#385, see Post #420 above.
I more used to seeing things together at one glance
Hello TckJob,

Do you use a script to create the spreadsheet every week or what.

Thanks
Stan
  • #428
  • Oct 12, 2008 1:35pm Oct 12, 2008 1:35pm
I have sent this question to trader101 as a PM, but I thought I would also post it on the thread.

Hey Julius, my question is that initially when you talked about trading just 2 or maybe 3-4 pairs ( in the original, now closed thread), they were the ones that jumped out of their group of 7. Say Sells on top, Buys on bottom (on our current week IA list) , if the top Buy pair jumps up one spot and now its pip total is +, we buy that pair and also buy the Sell pair that came down the one slot and now has a negative pip total - we can also do the same for the next 2 pairs that make this jump.

If however, we are looking back on the IA to the rankings for the last 2 weeks (each in their separate columns on the excel spread sheet), we see that the 2 pairs we just traded long ( the Buy pair we just traded long has now moved up 2 slots into the original Sell area and the Sell pair we traded long has moved 2 slots downward into the original Buy area) are actually in the classic position in the lists for the last 2 weeks where all Sells are on top and all Buys on the bottom. By the recent teaching from the Tandem method, I would then look at these 2 pairs and say, Hey, the displaced Buy pair needs to move back down 2 slots and the displaced Sell pair ( on my current week IA rank) needs to move back up 2 slots for both to be in the rank seen on the prior 2 week list - this would mean entering a sell on both pairs, so we have conflicting stategies - the first jump method saying we should be buying both pairs and the second tandem method suggesting a sell for both pairs, and both situations would be present essentially at the same time. Both are explained well in the threads and are logical, but conflicting in terms of the direction traded. Am I completely misunderstanding, or is there true conflict here, and how is this dealt with - thanks for your time again, Julius - fantastic info your are giving out with nothing asked in return - don't see that much these days!
  • #429
  • Oct 12, 2008 2:17pm Oct 12, 2008 2:17pm
To all those that PM'd me about IBFX_T101_Workfile.

Here are the FxPro scripts for opening both an FxPro Hedge(IA) and an IBFx Hedge(IA) within Foxpro ... dont forget ... 2 separate accounts. http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 1_FoxPro_TradeHedge.mq4   3 KB | 375 downloads
File Type: mq4 2_IB_TradeHedge.mq4   3 KB | 404 downloads
  • #430
  • Oct 12, 2008 4:00pm Oct 12, 2008 4:00pm
I've been following. But I still have a quick clarification question on the Tandem pair explanation. Specifically with the begining of the week screen shot. Are the initial weeks (Sep. 21 and Sep28 then Oct. 5) established at a specific time of day) each week? Also the time these were recorde is after the pairs have settled, correct?
  • #431
  • Oct 12, 2008 4:11pm Oct 12, 2008 4:11pm
Depends which screen shots you are reffering to Thomas ... but most likely they are running off the scripts that import the Opening price for the last 4 Sundays, with todays Opening/Friday Close price being entered manually ... at least thats the way I do it .... maybe change the Opening price for this week to match my entry prices on the IAs ... which I try to setup as markets open on Sunday.


"Also the time these were recorde is after the pairs have settled, correct?"
sorry dont understand what this question means..
  • #432
  • Oct 12, 2008 4:13pm Oct 12, 2008 4:13pm
I know this is late, but I will be reading and waiting pateintly for Episode 2. It is good to see the "Return of the Jedi! Thank Ronald Raygun for ripping me a new one. Much Respect!
  • #433
  • Oct 12, 2008 4:16pm Oct 12, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting Cdavid
Depends which screen shots you are reffering to Thomas ... but most likely they are running off the scripts that import the Opening price for the last 4 Sundays, with todays Opening/Friday Close price being entered manually ... at least thats the way I do it .... maybe change the Opening price for this week to match my entry prices on the IAs ... which I try to setup as markets open on Sunday.


"Also the time these were recorde is after the pairs have settled, correct?"
sorry dont understand what this question means..
Actually, the first part answered both questions. my intial understanding was incorrect. You just clarified a whole lot for me. Thank You Sir!
  • #434
  • Oct 12, 2008 4:56pm Oct 12, 2008 4:56pm
I was looking over last week's slideshow, and I noticed that all the trades in profit at the end of the week had a negative swap value. We'll see if the same holds true for this week.

Julius, have you thought to look at the swap?
  • #435
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:15pm Oct 12, 2008 5:15pm
The pair play Julius most recently exhibited was based on the ranging market conditions as opposed to trending. Essentially, what those plays did the other day was to bet on the 5 pairs returning to their general historical location within the group.

(Much like playing the outside of the Bollinger Band back to the middle on a single security).

That there were 5 pairs gave hedge/insurance that any one of them not returning, wouldn't eat your whole risk. Or in other words, if the market is ranging,all pairs will return to all spots eventually, choosing those that are furthest away from their historical norm, creates the best profit potential.

As for the pairs plays during trends, as I understand it, you would play the 2 or 4 pair cross overs ONLY if you can't play the 14 basket (margin wise)


Now, of course if you know how these particular pairs play/correlate you may be able to fine tune those types of trades, or at least eliminate those that are less likely to win.

please correct me if i'm wrong/annyone
Mark


Quoting getRdone
I have sent this question to trader101 as a PM, but I thought I would also post it on the thread.

Hey Julius, my question is that initially when you talked about trading just 2 or maybe 3-4 pairs ( in the original, now closed thread), they were the ones that jumped out of their group of 7. Say Sells on top, Buys on bottom (on our current week IA list) , if the top Buy pair jumps up one spot and now its pip total is +, we buy that pair and also buy the Sell pair that came down the one slot and now has a negative pip total - we can also do the same for the next 2 pairs that make this jump.

If however, we are looking back on the IA to the rankings for the last 2 weeks (each in their separate columns on the excel spread sheet), we see that the 2 pairs we just traded long ( the Buy pair we just traded long has now moved up 2 slots into the original Sell area and the Sell pair we traded long has moved 2 slots downward into the original Buy area) are actually in the classic position in the lists for the last 2 weeks where all Sells are on top and all Buys on the bottom. By the recent teaching from the Tandem method, I would then look at these 2 pairs and say, Hey, the displaced Buy pair needs to move back down 2 slots and the displaced Sell pair ( on my current week IA rank) needs to move back up 2 slots for both to be in the rank seen on the prior 2 week list - this would mean entering a sell on both pairs, so we have conflicting stategies - the first jump method saying we should be buying both pairs and the second tandem method suggesting a sell for both pairs, and both situations would be present essentially at the same time. Both are explained well in the threads and are logical, but conflicting in terms of the direction traded. Am I completely misunderstanding, or is there true conflict here, and how is this dealt with - thanks for your time again, Julius - fantastic info your are giving out with nothing asked in return - don't see that much these days!
  • #436
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:40pm Oct 12, 2008 5:40pm
Quoting getRdone
I have sent this question to trader101 as a PM, but I thought I would also post it on the thread.

Hey Julius, my question is that initially when you talked about trading just 2 or maybe 3-4 pairs ( in the original, now closed thread), they were the ones that jumped out of their group of 7. Say Sells on top, Buys on bottom (on our current week IA list) , if the top Buy pair jumps up one spot and now its pip total is +, we buy that pair and also buy the Sell pair that came down the one slot and now has a negative pip total - we can also do the same for the next 2 pairs that make this jump.

If however, we are looking back on the IA to the rankings for the last 2 weeks (each in their separate columns on the excel spread sheet), we see that the 2 pairs we just traded long ( the Buy pair we just traded long has now moved up 2 slots into the original Sell area and the Sell pair we traded long has moved 2 slots downward into the original Buy area) are actually in the classic position in the lists for the last 2 weeks where all Sells are on top and all Buys on the bottom. By the recent teaching from the Tandem method, I would then look at these 2 pairs and say, Hey, the displaced Buy pair needs to move back down 2 slots and the displaced Sell pair ( on my current week IA rank) needs to move back up 2 slots for both to be in the rank seen on the prior 2 week list - this would mean entering a sell on both pairs, so we have conflicting stategies - the first jump method saying we should be buying both pairs and the second tandem method suggesting a sell for both pairs, and both situations would be present essentially at the same time. Both are explained well in the threads and are logical, but conflicting in terms of the direction traded. Am I completely misunderstanding, or is there true conflict here, and how is this dealt with - thanks for your time again, Julius - fantastic info your are giving out with nothing asked in return - don't see that much these days!
And this is my reply...with a little edit on spelling and grammar.
Thanks for the question, i will try to answer this impronto..LOL
The method of trading the jumping pairs first varies according to the platform you use. The characteristic of pairs in IBFX is different from the characteristic of the Non ibfx pairs. Which sometimes added to the confusion. When you read the analysis and rules i am trying to make please note that it is not cast-in-stone. I find it hard that people will always take me by the word and not by the logic it was presented. Forex has always 2 ways the buy and the sell if i say i buy because of this reason. it doesnt mean that that is the rules means that is the logic at the time i said. But remember there is always the fundamental rule that this pairs over time will have identical positon in the company of other pairs. The ideal state. Anytime you came in and do your analysis, it is important to know at what stage are you at this time of observation. You see the pair away form the anchor position do not jump to conlusion that it is moving away. Pershaps it is moving towards the position. This method doesnt require much brains,it requires a lot of observation and more time observing and observing and make a pattern of the moves. Like observing a deer in deerhunting, you dont just jump and start shooting. you have to wait sometimes for hours and observing their behavior. Just because someone told you that the deer is always there and you expect the deer to be there...AS i menitoned in the past so many ways to trade this method choose one from your point of perspective and you will be succesfull.
Julius
  • #437
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:43pm Oct 12, 2008 5:43pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
I was looking over last week's slideshow, and I noticed that all the trades in profit at the end of the week had a negative swap value. We'll see if the same holds true for this week.

Julius, have you thought to look at the swap?
Most of the profittable trades we have lst week were sells and majority of the pairs always have negative swaps on Short order. This swaps are annoying sometimes like a termite eating your profit. Remember most buys are positive swaps most sells are negative swaps , pair that have higher swaps are JPYs.
  • #438
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:48pm Oct 12, 2008 5:48pm
I should probably show my IA.

This is my FxPro IA opened October 5. (EST)

Notice the swaps?
As I understand it, the swap rate is the rate the broker charges you for overnight positions in certain pairs, and dependent on your direction.

My logic is that if the broker is charging you a negative swap on a trade which is listed as a "BUY" trade in the initial basket, it may be more likely to turn a profit when the basket becomes sell-side biased.

The same for the buy-side bias.

If a SELL trade in the initial basket has a positive swap, it may be more likely to align itself with BUY-side pairs.



Either way, it's just an observation on my point. I have no idea if this is a coincidence or not.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: my ia.gif Size: 78 KB
  • #439
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:50pm Oct 12, 2008 5:50pm
Perhaps this Sunday and even Monday we may have ranging market due to the Holidays in the US and CAnada and also Japan. Well it is best to stay in the side line at this ranging market or just trade with pretty good setup like jumping pairs, this way you limit your risk.
  • #440
  • Oct 12, 2008 5:55pm Oct 12, 2008 5:55pm
Quoting Ronald Raygun
I should probably show my IA.

This is my FxPro IA opened October 5. (EST)

Notice the swaps?
As I understand it, the swap rate is the rate the broker charges you for overnight positions in certain pairs, and dependent on your direction.

My logic is that if the broker is charging you a negative swap on a trade which is listed as a "BUY" trade in the initial basket, it may be more likely to turn a profit when the basket becomes sell-side biased.

The same for the buy-side bias.

If a SELL trade in the initial basket has a positive swap, it may be more likely to align itself with BUY-side pairs.



Either way, it's just an observation on my point. I have no idea if this is a coincidence or not.
The pairings that i have selected both for the NonIbfx and Ibfx are the least negative swaps. The direction was also check and that is the least of the two direction. Either way if we interchange the pairing we still have negative swap, we just choose the lesser evil for direction. Somebody can check it for us please , because i know the other day IBFX changes their swap rates, that i have not check the latest.
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