This is a 5min chart. As I have mentioned many times, the macd needs to trade down below or above the zero line to continue the move. In this case, is below zero line.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)
- #121,522
- Oct 12, 2008 5:37pm Oct 12, 2008 5:37pm
- Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Dubai | 11,493 Posts
Trade what you see, not what you think.
- #121,523
- Oct 12, 2008 5:37pm Oct 12, 2008 5:37pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Professional Frontrunning Troll | 2,312 Posts
- #121,524
- Oct 12, 2008 5:39pm Oct 12, 2008 5:39pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
I ask that everybody who knows the bottom to post it. Here is the thread to post it at:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=114302
The reason I say this as I compare it to many false prophets. They make a prediction so obscure that they can later be construed as prophesized.
The same happens when picking a bottom. The bottom comes and people come out of the word work saying "Yep, it bounced off the 38 fib of wave 2 of the greater wave 3, etc."
Please post your bottom on the thread and we'll see who is correct.
B
back in july, i predicted 215.80 was the TOP. and not too long before that i was thinking GJ would go to 219 or even 229, but there was a last minute observation that i stated in these links and therefore posted my crapper
. here are some links about my predictions back in july...http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=103359
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=103365
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=103362
right now, i'm not trying to say things to "prophesize" my predictions, but i'm stating a scenario i have in mind that might actually work. i wish i was as good in my daily analysis as i am in my long term analysis, and I WISH i had kept that short i had from 215.50, looool. i had one at 213.80 that was closed at 176 though
based on the same predictions above...
- #121,525
- Oct 12, 2008 5:43pm Oct 12, 2008 5:43pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #121,526
- Oct 12, 2008 5:44pm Oct 12, 2008 5:44pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #121,527
- Oct 12, 2008 5:46pm Oct 12, 2008 5:46pm
i disagree with you about this being a contest... but we're all just TRYING to predict. some say it's the bottom, and some say we didn't see the bottom yet. i say this MIGHT be the bottom and not this WILL be the bottom.
back in july, i predicted 215.80 was the TOP. and not too long before that i was thinking GJ would go to 219 or even 229, but there was a last minute observation that i stated in these links and therefore posted my crapper
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=103359
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=103365
http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...stcount=103362
right now, i'm not trying to say things to "prophesize" my predictions, but i'm stating a scenario i have in mind that might actually work. i wish i was as good in my daily analysis as i am in my long term analysis, and I WISH i had kept that short i had from 215.50, looool. i had one at 213.80 that was closed at 176 though
So post it and modify it as your charts evolve.
B
- #121,529
- Oct 12, 2008 5:52pm Oct 12, 2008 5:52pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
- #121,530
- Oct 12, 2008 5:54pm Oct 12, 2008 5:54pm
- Joined Aug 2007 | Status: The Weather Man | 8,859 Posts
1h bear flag is still intact so yah I remain bearish and expecting a re-test of the low and high possibility of a new low for the beast
looks like we're heading there again ATM...there is one funny thing by the way, and that is each time we get a "too good to be true pattern" as such, i would think that they're trying to fool us into a bad trade so that patter could be broken and us losing, but it amazes me how easy the market is going lately.... funny right?
i might try going long on the lower TL.
- #121,531
- Oct 12, 2008 6:00pm Oct 12, 2008 6:00pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,040 Posts
This is a 5min chart. As I have mentioned many times, the macd needs to trade down below or above the zero line to continue the move. In this case, is below zero line.
I've made total 120 pips roundtrip trades .. guess .. am done for today ..maybe, if I can control my greed which it oftenly kills me .. - #121,532
- Oct 12, 2008 6:02pm Oct 12, 2008 6:02pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Easy 60-70 pips ..
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #121,533
- Oct 12, 2008 6:04pm Oct 12, 2008 6:04pm
- | Joined Jun 2008 | Status: Professional Frontrunning Troll | 2,312 Posts
- #121,534
- Oct 12, 2008 6:06pm Oct 12, 2008 6:06pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,040 Posts
nice i am in green 175 gj and 250 gbpaud .... still short gbpaud .. .flat gj for now
- #121,535
- Oct 12, 2008 6:14pm Oct 12, 2008 6:14pm
- | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Trader | 5,040 Posts
Market Directions October 12, 2008 Forward to a friend
Riding the Tiger
The week past may have been the most wrenching in the history of US equities. From Monday to Friday the Dow lost 18.1%, the S&P 18.2% and the Nasdaq 15.3%. European and Asian bourses had their worst week on record and exchanges in Russia , Indonesia and the Ukraine halted trading. But once again, as stocks crashed and burned the dollar rode high. The US currency may have lost 3.8% against the Japanese Yen and traded even against the Swiss Franc but it gained against every other major currency: 2.0% against the Euro; 9.4% versus the New Zealand Dollar; 3.8% against the Pound Sterling; 16.2% against the Australian Dollar and 8.7% versus the Canadian Dollar.
The coordinated 50 basis point rate cuts by the central banks of the United States, the European Monetary Union, England, Canada and Sweden, combined with the earlier 100 point cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the smaller reduction by the People’s Bank of China killed any remaining rational for the carry trade. Though the Bank of Japan did not reduce rates, its base stayed at 0.5%, the rate differential between high yielding currencies and the yen that had drawn so much risk capital to the yen crosses is headed into oblivion. The banks that cut will cut again and for traders these crosses are on a one way elevator down.
The degree to which the New Zealand and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Canadian Dollar, the Euro and the Swiss Franc were fortified by their yen crosses is illustrated by the extraordinary capitulation we have seen. The nzd/yen and aud/yen have lost 38.5% and 39.6% since their respective peaks, the cad/yen 31.5%. The US Dollar has gained 27% against the kiwi, 33% versus the aussie and 28% against the loonie. The euro and its cross have seen similar movement with the euro/yen off 20% from its high and the euro down 16% against the dollar. Even the relatively low yielding Swiss Franc and its cross have declined with the swiss/yen off 15% and the franc down 18% against the US Dollar.
Since the beginning of the stock crushing phase of the credit crisis the currency markets have clearly viewed Wednesday’s rate cuts as a foregone conclusion. Why else sell the yen crosses so hard? Perhaps the equity markets, which had been clamoring for these cuts for several weeks, might have taken early comfort in currency traders’ opinion that rate cuts were a certainty.
It is true that some of the positive movement to the US Dollar is part of a mass flight from central bank rate inevitability in the yen crosses. But dollar strength is not just the byproduct of the collapse of the carry trade. It is also a vote for the supremacy of the greenback and the US economy. The currency markets are telling the economic and financial world where the recovery will take first and strongest root. This conclusion, perhaps unbelievable in the face of the current economic catastrophe, is supported by the current level of the US Dollar against its major competitors. The euro has returned to the level it held against the dollar before the eruption of the sub prime problem last August. The Pound Sterling and all the yen crosses are far below the levels of last August, as are the Aussie, the Kiwi and the Canadian Dollar. Only the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are stronger versus the US Dollar.
The clear preference for the US currency over that of every other country in times of crisis is historically understandable. The US has the largest unified economy in the world, the largest internal market, and the world’s reserve currency. No foreign economy or currency could well survive a US collapse.
Whatever measures are successful (or not) in stemming this economic crisis, currency markets are betting that the first beneficiary will be the US Dollar and its economy. Investors can rationally expect that the American government will not let its banking system dissolve and that it has the power to accomplish that task. The prime lesson Mr. Bernanke took from his study of the Depression, and the chief Fed policy error at that time was that it permitted and indeed encouraged a contraction of the money supply. At the risk of future inflation the Fed has poured money into US financial system in unprecedented amounts.
Just as the currency market assumption that worldwide rates would have to come down surfaced when the financial crisis turned into a severe credit crunch and was illustrated by the huge selling of the high yielding yen crosses, so it appears that the ascent of the dollar is the currency markets judgment on the outcome of the economic crisis.
The original sub prime and credit crises have far outstripped their source in the United States . As the US was the fount of the crisis so, at least in the opinion of dollar traders, will it be the source of the recovery.
_________________________________________________________________
Special Commentary on Recent Market Conditions
As everyone has witnessed, the global stock and credit markets have been undergoing an unprecedented fluctuations and volatility. Nearly every exchange or market has been affected in one way or another -- including the foreign exchange marketplace. As with the stock markets, the increased volatility has impacted pricing and execution in the currency markets. Some of you may have witnessed a typical behavior and we want to explain it to you to the best of our ability.
In the top level bank market (the interbank Forex market), currencies that are normally priced at three pips have been quoted at fifteen, twenty or even thirty points spreads for more than a week. The interbank market is where we derive our price feed. These widened spreads are due to a variety of factors, including the uncertainty about interest rates across many countries and changing expectations about relative economic growth of different countries, factors which affect currency rates. Lesser traded currency pairs (with normally wider spreads) are being quoted with even greater disparities between bid and offer. One of the most adversely affected currency has been the New Zealand dollar. For this reason, we temporarily widened our spreads in the New Zealand Dollar and its crosses to reflect the true conditions in the interbank market.
Despite the pricing volatility in all currencies we have maintained fixed spreads in all of the major currency pairs. We believe this extreme volatility - an historic aberration - will be a temporary phenomenon and we anticipate that markets will soon resume a more normal pattern of behavior.
Joseph Trevisani
FX Solutions, LLC
Chief Market Analyst
[email protected]
2008 - FX Solutions, LLC
Riding the Tiger
The week past may have been the most wrenching in the history of US equities. From Monday to Friday the Dow lost 18.1%, the S&P 18.2% and the Nasdaq 15.3%. European and Asian bourses had their worst week on record and exchanges in Russia , Indonesia and the Ukraine halted trading. But once again, as stocks crashed and burned the dollar rode high. The US currency may have lost 3.8% against the Japanese Yen and traded even against the Swiss Franc but it gained against every other major currency: 2.0% against the Euro; 9.4% versus the New Zealand Dollar; 3.8% against the Pound Sterling; 16.2% against the Australian Dollar and 8.7% versus the Canadian Dollar.
The coordinated 50 basis point rate cuts by the central banks of the United States, the European Monetary Union, England, Canada and Sweden, combined with the earlier 100 point cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia and the smaller reduction by the People’s Bank of China killed any remaining rational for the carry trade. Though the Bank of Japan did not reduce rates, its base stayed at 0.5%, the rate differential between high yielding currencies and the yen that had drawn so much risk capital to the yen crosses is headed into oblivion. The banks that cut will cut again and for traders these crosses are on a one way elevator down.
The degree to which the New Zealand and Australian Dollars and to a lesser extent the Canadian Dollar, the Euro and the Swiss Franc were fortified by their yen crosses is illustrated by the extraordinary capitulation we have seen. The nzd/yen and aud/yen have lost 38.5% and 39.6% since their respective peaks, the cad/yen 31.5%. The US Dollar has gained 27% against the kiwi, 33% versus the aussie and 28% against the loonie. The euro and its cross have seen similar movement with the euro/yen off 20% from its high and the euro down 16% against the dollar. Even the relatively low yielding Swiss Franc and its cross have declined with the swiss/yen off 15% and the franc down 18% against the US Dollar.
Since the beginning of the stock crushing phase of the credit crisis the currency markets have clearly viewed Wednesday’s rate cuts as a foregone conclusion. Why else sell the yen crosses so hard? Perhaps the equity markets, which had been clamoring for these cuts for several weeks, might have taken early comfort in currency traders’ opinion that rate cuts were a certainty.
It is true that some of the positive movement to the US Dollar is part of a mass flight from central bank rate inevitability in the yen crosses. But dollar strength is not just the byproduct of the collapse of the carry trade. It is also a vote for the supremacy of the greenback and the US economy. The currency markets are telling the economic and financial world where the recovery will take first and strongest root. This conclusion, perhaps unbelievable in the face of the current economic catastrophe, is supported by the current level of the US Dollar against its major competitors. The euro has returned to the level it held against the dollar before the eruption of the sub prime problem last August. The Pound Sterling and all the yen crosses are far below the levels of last August, as are the Aussie, the Kiwi and the Canadian Dollar. Only the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc are stronger versus the US Dollar.
The clear preference for the US currency over that of every other country in times of crisis is historically understandable. The US has the largest unified economy in the world, the largest internal market, and the world’s reserve currency. No foreign economy or currency could well survive a US collapse.
Whatever measures are successful (or not) in stemming this economic crisis, currency markets are betting that the first beneficiary will be the US Dollar and its economy. Investors can rationally expect that the American government will not let its banking system dissolve and that it has the power to accomplish that task. The prime lesson Mr. Bernanke took from his study of the Depression, and the chief Fed policy error at that time was that it permitted and indeed encouraged a contraction of the money supply. At the risk of future inflation the Fed has poured money into US financial system in unprecedented amounts.
Just as the currency market assumption that worldwide rates would have to come down surfaced when the financial crisis turned into a severe credit crunch and was illustrated by the huge selling of the high yielding yen crosses, so it appears that the ascent of the dollar is the currency markets judgment on the outcome of the economic crisis.
The original sub prime and credit crises have far outstripped their source in the United States . As the US was the fount of the crisis so, at least in the opinion of dollar traders, will it be the source of the recovery.
_________________________________________________________________
Special Commentary on Recent Market Conditions
As everyone has witnessed, the global stock and credit markets have been undergoing an unprecedented fluctuations and volatility. Nearly every exchange or market has been affected in one way or another -- including the foreign exchange marketplace. As with the stock markets, the increased volatility has impacted pricing and execution in the currency markets. Some of you may have witnessed a typical behavior and we want to explain it to you to the best of our ability.
In the top level bank market (the interbank Forex market), currencies that are normally priced at three pips have been quoted at fifteen, twenty or even thirty points spreads for more than a week. The interbank market is where we derive our price feed. These widened spreads are due to a variety of factors, including the uncertainty about interest rates across many countries and changing expectations about relative economic growth of different countries, factors which affect currency rates. Lesser traded currency pairs (with normally wider spreads) are being quoted with even greater disparities between bid and offer. One of the most adversely affected currency has been the New Zealand dollar. For this reason, we temporarily widened our spreads in the New Zealand Dollar and its crosses to reflect the true conditions in the interbank market.
Despite the pricing volatility in all currencies we have maintained fixed spreads in all of the major currency pairs. We believe this extreme volatility - an historic aberration - will be a temporary phenomenon and we anticipate that markets will soon resume a more normal pattern of behavior.
Joseph Trevisani
FX Solutions, LLC
Chief Market Analyst
[email protected]
2008 - FX Solutions, LLC
- #121,536
- Oct 12, 2008 6:14pm Oct 12, 2008 6:14pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
You are way better ..
no luck ...lol.... not better
saw bearish div rsi at 173.5 .... shorted it .. that was the gap close ....
reversed off gap close ......
was flying by seat of pants and it worked
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone
- #121,537
- Oct 12, 2008 6:24pm Oct 12, 2008 6:24pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: "As Above So Below" | 6,206 Posts
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
- #121,540
- Oct 12, 2008 6:32pm Oct 12, 2008 6:32pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: HARD SHYT SCUBA TRADER | 20,886 Posts
Blogging daily now at www.volume.zone