big gaps today... | Forex Factory

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big gaps today...

  • #1
  • First Post: Sep 18, 2005 4:28pm Sep 18, 2005 4:28pm
we had some huge opening gaps today due to the german election. lets see if the gaps will fill again!

EURUSD
long at 1.2169
stop at 1.2150
profit at 1.2200 (yesterday low).
risk/reward approx. 1:1.3
Relax and be happy.
  • #2
  • Sep 18, 2005 4:40pm Sep 18, 2005 4:40pm
Hey Magic man, I'm with ya. Let's hope she heads north. Any idea the cause? I didn't here anything.


Pipmon
LETS PLAY HOCKEY!
  • #3
  • Sep 18, 2005 4:47pm Sep 18, 2005 4:47pm
well i think the gap was caused by the election, but i dont have qualitative reason for why the gap should close. i do have a quantitative one though...50% of historical weekend gaps close, and 80% of gaps come back enough to reach the high/low of the previous day (thats where i have my profit target on this trade).
Relax and be happy.
  • #4
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:08pm Sep 18, 2005 5:08pm
The primary reason the gap may not close is because Schroeder refuses to give up the Chancellor position even though he lost by about 1.7%.

His strategy to call for early elections to put a stop to the growing Christian Democratic Union seems to have failed.

Now he wants to talk them into letting him stay. For now, Germany is in political limbo. The market could swing either way depending on what becomes of this mess.

I've been long on the EURO for quite a while, so I'm hoping he will step down and loose graciously. That would really help me out. Maybe I should call him....
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #5
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:09pm Sep 18, 2005 5:09pm
Quoting merlin
we had some huge opening gaps today due to the german election. lets see if the gaps will fill again!

EURUSD
long at 1.2169
stop at 1.2150
profit at 1.2200 (yesterday low).
risk/reward approx. 1:1.3
Hey Merlin, may I ask how you calculated the stop or this trade? I understand that the profit target is set to yesterdays' low, but where did the stop get from ?

Thanks,

Nader
  • #6
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:10pm Sep 18, 2005 5:10pm
Yeah, according to IFR, the gaps were caused by the German Election result. eurusd has key fibo support @1.2145 (61.8) 1.1870 - 1.2590 move.

The same type of gap (Yen) occured after the Japanese election and eventually it got filled.

Good luck to everyone playing the gap.


JohnFX
  • #7
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:14pm Sep 18, 2005 5:14pm
I could see this drifting to the 1.2120-30 area before any real support starts to kick in.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #8
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:24pm Sep 18, 2005 5:24pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
The primary reason the gap may not close is because Schroeder refuses to give up the Chancellor position even though he lost by about 1.7%.

His strategy to call for early elections to put a stop to the growing Christian Democratic Union seems to have failed.

Now he wants to talk them into letting him stay. For now, Germany is in political limbo. The market could swing either way depending on what becomes of this mess.

I've been long on the EURO for quite a while, so I'm hoping he will step down and loose graciously. That would really help me out. Maybe I should call him....
i think gaps that are news driven are the most dangerous to play. my experience with gaps in the futures markey certainly has born this out over the years. i always play a non news gap but i am very careful when its obvious one is news driven. this is from being burned many times playing them. as john carter with trade the markets says, almost all windows in the market close eventually. technical gaps tend to close quickly and news driven gaps can take a while.
  • #9
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:26pm Sep 18, 2005 5:26pm
Amen to that, man. I've tried with about a 40/60 success rate.

Here's the latest which doesn't shine well:

After an inconclusive German election, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said his Social Democrats party will not enter a coalition with the opposition Christian Democrats if his challenger Angela Merkel were the leader.
"Mrs Merkel will not obtain a coalition with the SPD if she wants to become chancellor," Schroeder said in a round-table debate with the main candidates.
IT MIGHT TURN UGLY. Maybe 1.2120 was too high?
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #10
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:29pm Sep 18, 2005 5:29pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
Amen to that, man. I've tried with about a 40/60 success rate.

Here's the latest which doesn't shine well:

After an inconclusive German election, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said his Social Democrats party will not enter a coalition with the opposition Christian Democrats if his challenger Angela Merkel were the leader.
"Mrs Merkel will not obtain a coalition with the SPD if she wants to become chancellor," Schroeder said in a round-table debate with the main candidates.
IT MIGHT TURN UGLY. Maybe 1.2120 was too high?
i like the way mudd stays up on the fundamental stuff.
  • #11
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:33pm Sep 18, 2005 5:33pm
Well, the bad news forced a re-cross of the EMA's on the EUR/JPY 3 hour chart. If the battle continues between the two parties, there could be a decent short there until the political situation is figured out.

I'm gonna give it one more time interval to be sure.
Attached Image
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #12
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:46pm Sep 18, 2005 5:46pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
Amen to that, man. I've tried with about a 40/60 success rate.

Here's the latest which doesn't shine well:

After an inconclusive German election, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said his Social Democrats party will not enter a coalition with the opposition Christian Democrats if his challenger Angela Merkel were the leader.
"Mrs Merkel will not obtain a coalition with the SPD if she wants to become chancellor," Schroeder said in a round-table debate with the main candidates.
IT MIGHT TURN UGLY. Maybe 1.2120 was too high?
Well, Maybe the first step is the 1.2140-1.2150, then the 1.2053-1.2061 and then finally the 1.2040-1.2048. That's my own opinion based on some little analysis.

But I don't think we are going to see those levels. 1.2140-1.2150 has been already reached. I don't think that it is gonna be passed to the downside, and that's why I asked Merlin where he got the stop of 1.2150 from, cause that's was the upper band of my range

Thanks,

Nader
  • #13
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:49pm Sep 18, 2005 5:49pm
There certainly is a lot of tech. downward pressure on eurusd, along with the election. You have a trend line break on the daily along with neg. divergence, bearish candle Friday. Tuff to fight all that. Best play might be to fade any bounce.
  • #14
  • Sep 18, 2005 5:54pm Sep 18, 2005 5:54pm
Remember guys that everyone in here is talking about the elections and we are ignoring an extremely important event tomorrow. The FOMC meeting, USD interest rates decision.

Thanks,

Nader
  • #15
  • Sep 18, 2005 6:12pm Sep 18, 2005 6:12pm
Yeah, gotcha covered on that one too.

Sept. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may advance for a third consecutive week against the euro, the longest winning streak since May, on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates tomorrow and signal further increases.

It will be an interesting week.
Capital Preservation is key to long term wealth accumulation
  • #16
  • Sep 18, 2005 11:16pm Sep 18, 2005 11:16pm
Quoting MuddBuddha
I've been long on the EURO for quite a while, so I'm hoping he will step down and loose graciously. That would really help me out. Maybe I should call him....
If he isn`t home,and you can`t reach him,inform me,I`ll give you his cell phone number.Just don`t tell him who gave you,sometimes he`s real Schmerz in die Arschloch...
  • #17
  • Sep 19, 2005 12:39am Sep 19, 2005 12:39am
C'mon MD ,we are missing your John Travolta's fatty face.....give it back to us .
Gaps;...once I get burn with,so I never ever have open position on weekends
  • #18
  • Sep 19, 2005 2:49am Sep 19, 2005 2:49am
gap obviously didnt close this time.
Relax and be happy.
  • #19
  • Sep 19, 2005 2:51am Sep 19, 2005 2:51am
Quoting narafa
Hey Merlin, may I ask how you calculated the stop or this trade?
i set the stop as a % of the gap. i tested a bunch of methods. its actually jim who gave me the idea for the method i ended up using when he was discussing the dow gap system a few months ago.
Relax and be happy.
  • #20
  • Sep 19, 2005 2:55am Sep 19, 2005 2:55am
Quoting MuddBuddha
Amen to that, man. I've tried with about a 40/60 success rate.

Here's the latest which doesn't shine well:

After an inconclusive German election, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said his Social Democrats party will not enter a coalition with the opposition Christian Democrats if his challenger Angela Merkel were the leader.
"Mrs Merkel will not obtain a coalition with the SPD if she wants to become chancellor," Schroeder said in a round-table debate with the main candidates.
IT MIGHT TURN UGLY. Maybe 1.2120 was too high?
yeah man im with you on the fundies. germany has a mess on it's hands. this only adds to my bearish outlook on EURUSD. i think we see a serious decline this week, starting with the fed holding strong on tuesday.
Relax and be happy.
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