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  • #1,001
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:23am Feb 23, 2007 11:23am
Quoting Monaco
Attached are 2 charts for the USD/CAD. One is based on the Average True Range of the previous 14 days multiplied by 2 and the other is multiplied by 3. The red line is the 200SMA.

I am not suggesting that you divert course from what you have been doing but this could one way of possibly making enhancements when/if you desire.

Monaco
Thanks so much for taking the time to post this

I'll have a good look over the weekend - my stop loss strategy works pretty well most of the time but you can always look to improve I guess.

Most of the time it does it's job and stops more losses which is why it's there lol but I think when you have a period like I've had, it is a real pain getting stopped out and the price returning to where you started.

Thanks again.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,002
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:25am Feb 23, 2007 11:25am
Quoting vest1
Hi Steviet

From what I have read on other threads some people ignore the line in the ATR indicator and just use the numerical value. When I place the ATR (10) on the GBP/USD Iget a value of 0.0127. IF I change to ATR (20) I get 0.0125. At ATR (45) I get 0.0130. This seems to me to be a very stable (TRUE) number to work with.

Beach Bum on the Fozzy thread was experimenting with 70% of ATR, Other Systems use two or three times the ATR to stay in a trade and catch the trend

I Hope this Helps

vest1
Thanks for this additional info - shame my broker can't actually place it on the charts which is why I hadn't got a clue where people were getting the stop loss theory from lol

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,003
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:28am Feb 23, 2007 11:28am
Well, it's a long time since I could say this but all 5 trades are currently in profit to the tune of 300 pips

Only UJ has guaranteed profits but come Monday would hope to lock some more in on the other pairs.

Yippee - nearly fell off my chair when I saw all that green

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,004
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:41am Feb 23, 2007 11:41am
Quoting steviet
Yippee - nearly fell off my chair when I saw all that green

Kind Regards
Steve
You, too? ;D
I'm very happy. Currently +100 on the cable I'm holding and staring hard at USDCAD, too, so that it may go on down....
This week has been good to me. Not because of my intraday trading, but because of the trades I HELD ON TO. StevieT tactics, you know?
It's the way to win the game, don't ever doubt it
Here's hoping you have a great weekend and don't forget loads of cheap champagne ;D *lol*

Take care,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,005
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:44am Feb 23, 2007 11:44am
Quoting steviet
Yup, its easy to chop & change when things aren't going so well - I will stick with it because I know it will work - its me thats the problem from time to time

Kind Regards
Steve
Stick with it in the long run I think you'll get paid. Only look at 1/4 results so you can see threw the fog.

Last count I think you still have more pips than most. It always easy to say "I should of, would of" after the fact.

It those people that count those "would of should of" pips who always fail in the long run. The mkt is just teaching you a valuable lesson: it can do and will do what it wants when it wants.

So sticking to your system is the key if you start looking for ways to profit in the chop then your just changing the system and you know what will happen then the mkt will start trending and you will be standing w/ your the tail between your legs saying @#$% I should of ....

So just stick w/ it. I'm just happy you where able to get some positive data and pips your first three months. I wonder how many post and reads this thread would have if you started Jan 1 or Feb 1.

For this reason when testing any system... this just proves you can not just look at one trade, one day, one week, or even one month or even two.

A trader's emotional state is vital to being a successful investor.

And the only way to prove if you have something is by doing just what your doing. sticking w/ it threw the good and the bad and not straying off the course.

Steve keep up the good work
  • #1,006
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:47am Feb 23, 2007 11:47am
Quoting SeekingLight
You, too? ;D
I'm very happy. Currently +100 on the cable I'm holding and staring hard at USDCAD, too, so that it may go on down....
This week has been good to me. Not because of my intraday trading, but because of the trades I HELD ON TO. StevieT tactics, you know?
It's the way to win the game, don't ever doubt it
Here's hoping you have a great weekend and don't forget loads of cheap champagne ;D *lol*

Take care,

SeekingLight
StevieT tactics - I love it

Seriously well done bro - good to see you had a good week

More of the same would be great from Monday too - unfortunately can't even afford cheap champagne on a few cents a pip

You have a great weekend too

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,007
  • Feb 23, 2007 11:58am Feb 23, 2007 11:58am
i think you might be at cross-purposes here! surely its the ADX you're after for measuring a trend??

yep, ATR is quite a popular tool for stop placement - a lot of books use it in their examples.

anyway, here's a link...

http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../02/041002.asp

Quoting steviet
Hey Monaco

Interesting suggestion - 200 SMA seems to be something I hear about a fair bit. I see on GU for example, I would only have placed long trades since about mid April 06.

Someone else mentioned ATR as well for staying in the trend. It's a real tricky one because you obviously like to stay in the trend as long as possible but also want to get out before the market reverses too much.

As you say, both 2005 & 2006 didnt really get moving until March, April time so lets see.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,008
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:00pm Feb 23, 2007 12:00pm
Quoting turbokaos
Stick with it in the long run I think you'll get paid. Only look at 1/4 results so you can see threw the fog.

Last count I think you still have more pips than most. It always easy to say "I should of, would of" after the fact.

It those people that count those "would of should of" pips who always fail in the long run. The mkt is just teaching you a valuable lesson: it can do and will do what it wants when it wants.

So sticking to your system is the key if you start looking for ways to profit in the chop then your just changing the system and you know what will happen then the mkt will start trending and you will be standing w/ your the tail between your legs saying @#$% I should of ....

So just stick w/ it. I'm just happy you where able to get some positive data and pips your first three months. I wonder how many post and reads this thread would have if you started Jan 1 or Feb 1.

For this reason when testing any system... this just proves you can not just look at one trade, one day, one week, or even one month or even two.

A trader's emotional state is vital to being a successful investor.

And the only way to prove if you have something is by doing just what your doing. sticking w/ it threw the good and the bad and not straying off the course.

Steve keep up the good work
Thanks for the encouraging words turbo - you have been a true inspiration and support to me during my short journey so far, as have others (you know who you are ) with your PM's when I'm feeling a bit down.

You are right of course - I have to stick with this for the full year before I can make any real conclusions. These difficult times make you think but I'll be better able to judge once I have the full data in front of me.

I'm only trading with peanuts whilst I learn but it's still pyschologically challenging which can only be a good thing for the future.

You are right about starting when I did - maybe it's a sign - maybe if I started in Jan or Feb I would have consigned the system to the scrapheap and still be looking lol.

Anyhow, may the pips be with you my friend & thanks again

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,009
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:04pm Feb 23, 2007 12:04pm
one good week next week could turnaround your results for the month. that's when i would print your monthly totals!!!

i see others have made the same point about sticking to your plan...if you experiment then i would advise you keep the results separate from this forward-test. don't mix the two in the same account!!! (don't forget what your sig says!!!)

set up different demos for different ideas - oanda might be good for this since they offer sub-accounts off a main acount even in demo mode.

Quoting steviet
StevieT tactics - I love it

Seriously well done bro - good to see you had a good week

More of the same would be great from Monday too - unfortunately can't even afford cheap champagne on a few cents a pip

You have a great weekend too

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,010
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:05pm Feb 23, 2007 12:05pm
Quoting Isotonic
i think you might be at cross-purposes here! surely its the ADX you're after for measuring a trend??

yep, ATR is quite a popular tool for stop placement - a lot of books use it in their examples.

anyway, here's a link...

http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../02/041002.asp
Thanks for the link Iso

I know what ADX is - used to use it with MACD when I first looked at fx on shorter timeframes. My broker does have ATR average true range but just plots it at the bottom of the chart like an RSI or stochs would. You can't actually get it on the charts to show where you should or could place stop losses.

Maybe I'll leave this one for some later time when I transfer my millions into another account that uses MT4

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,011
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:10pm Feb 23, 2007 12:10pm
Quoting Isotonic
one good week next week could turnaround your results for the month. that's when i would print your monthly totals!!!

i see others have made the same point about sticking to your plan...if you experiment then i would advise you keep the results separate from this forward-test. don't mix the two in the same account!!! (don't forget what your sig says!!!)

set up different demos for different ideas - oanda might be good for this since they offer sub-accounts off a main acount even in demo mode.
Yup, I would do any tinkering on another account - my broker has both live & demo platforms & you can open sub accounts there too.

lol about the totals - I'll post full update on the 28th - maybe these trades will be good to me & reduce this months losses to less gargantuon proportions haha

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,012
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:15pm Feb 23, 2007 12:15pm
you might be surprised to hear this, but i think this month will be one of the best months so far...(eh, wtf!?!? you might say.)

why??? ok so you lost the pips (so far), but look at what you learned about yourself, your system and how you handle the pressure. it's not the same when you're winning and you can put things on cruise control. when the chips are down, you generally find out and learn a lot more.

with your system, you should eventually pick up new trends right when they start and start bagging pips again. for those who try to time the market more we may miss these good opportunities (but we get to sit out the chop if done right). its a question of when, not if, and when it happens you will be all the better for it since you've rode out the bad times (just when 95% people give up).

never forget the big picture with this system, and always put these bad patches in perspective of the monster pips you will eventually collect (again)!!!

hang tough, bro!!!
  • #1,013
  • Feb 23, 2007 12:34pm Feb 23, 2007 12:34pm
I guess it's what people would term a development curve and yes, this was always going to happen some time.

It's very easy to get caught in the moment and not look at the big picture but I said in one of my very first posts that I was looking forward to a ranging/choppy market to challenge me - must have been mad . I can tell you it's been much more difficult than I ever imagined but I'll come out the other side and pick up some more big pips thats for sure.

Still hanging - have a great weekend & don't drink too much PG Tips - everything in moderation

Steve


Quoting Isotonic
you might be surprised to hear this, but i think this month will be one of the best months so far...(eh, wtf!?!? you might say.)

why??? ok so you lost the pips (so far), but look at what you learned about yourself, your system and how you handle the pressure. it's not the same when you're winning and you can put things on cruise control. when the chips are down, you generally find out and learn a lot more.

with your system, you should eventually pick up new trends right when they start and start bagging pips again. for those who try to time the market more we may miss these good opportunities (but we get to sit out the chop if done right). its a question of when, not if, and when it happens you will be all the better for it since you've rode out the bad times (just when 95% people give up).

never forget the big picture with this system, and always put these bad patches in perspective of the monster pips you will eventually collect (again)!!!

hang tough, bro!!!
  • #1,014
  • Feb 23, 2007 3:48pm Feb 23, 2007 3:48pm
About the ATR, kharvell would use it in his method and how he would do it was, take the numerical data at the moment he would enter a trade and add/subtract it from the price, so for example

Long GU @9500 , ATR value .70 let's say, so his stop loss would be 9430

You don't need to have it on the chart itself bro, it's always below just like RSI/stoch's.. you just use the numerical data like someone mentioned earlier.

Don't touch/change anything in your system, I know it's been pretty tough but hang in there.. we're all with you bro

Good luck
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #1,015
  • Feb 23, 2007 4:00pm Feb 23, 2007 4:00pm
Quoting karmostaji
About the ATR, kharvell would use it in his method and how he would do it was, take the numerical data at the moment he would enter a trade and add/subtract it from the price, so for example

Long GU @9500 , ATR value .70 let's say, so his stop loss would be 9430

You don't need to have it on the chart itself bro, it's always below just like RSI/stoch's.. you just use the numerical data like someone mentioned earlier.

Don't touch/change anything in your system, I know it's been pretty tough but hang in there.. we're all with you bro

Good luck
Thanks for the support - I know you started trading live at probably the worst time so you're a credit to yourself for still being so positive about the future

Just going to post my weekly update then I've got a question about the ATR stop loss for you.

Laters
Steve
  • #1,016
  • Feb 23, 2007 4:28pm Feb 23, 2007 4:28pm
Well, we are now starting to see a few winners coming in - USDJPY has seen two 100+ winners this month and the current trades are looking fairly promising. Currently they are just over 300 pips in profit so with a good day Monday should be able to lock in some pips and clawback some of February's losses.

Trades held into the weekend....

USDCHF short from 1.2378 (s/l 1.2422 guarantees minus 44 pips)
GBPUSD long from 1.9566 (s/l 1.9527 guarantees minus 39 pips)
EURUSD long from 1.3125 (s/l 1.3093 guarantees minus 32 pips)
USDCAD short from 1.1598 (s/l 1.1639 guarantees minus 43 pips)
USDJPY long from 119.57 (s/l 120.82 guarantees plus 125 pips)

Have a great weekend one and all and look forward to next week

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #1,017
  • Feb 23, 2007 4:37pm Feb 23, 2007 4:37pm
Hi karmostaji,

OK, I understand I don't need to place this on the charts but how do I get the actual ATR value? On the attached chart I've got GBPUSD daily with an ATR at the bottom period 20, ranging from 0.011 to 0.014. What do these figures mean and how do you calculate the ATR value from that?

I've worked at the bank for nearly 20 years but maybe my last two brain cells are waving goodbye to one another

Please explain in words that a 10 year old can understand (then my youngest can explain it to me lol)

Cheers bro
Steve
Attached Image
  • #1,018
  • Feb 23, 2007 4:50pm Feb 23, 2007 4:50pm
Quoting steviet
Hi karmostaji,

OK, I understand I don't need to place this on the charts but how do I get the actual ATR value? On the attached chart I've got GBPUSD daily with an ATR at the bottom period 20, ranging from 0.011 to 0.014. What do these figures mean and how do you calculate the ATR value from that?

Hey Steve,
I'm not Karmo but the way ATR usually works is that it shows the average range of a given set of days. If you set it to 1 it should show 1:1 the daily bars high to low, i.e. if the day was 110 pips from low to high, it would show 110. It may be showing the decimals a bit odd => 0.11 = 110 pips or something. If you use longer periods, you get a rougher average overall, if you use less, you get one more "specific to this recent period".

To be honest, "good" stop placement is an art, even strong s/r can sometimes be penetrated for 10-30 pips before you get a pin bar or similiar through it as price flops back. But by then the stop is already gone.
Still safer than thin air however. ATR vs 10 pips trailed will not make a gigantic difference imho, using big s/r including fibs and price pivots (James stuff) will most likely be more efficient....

I've not moved my stop until price moved out of a certain range for my Kiwi trade for example, had I trailed it it would have just up and died weeks ago. There's sometimes this initial "move out then move back to origin then takeoff" phase and trailing during that can be deadly. Ok, too much theory.

In short: I don't think ATR alone will make that huge a difference, using a good spot on the chart if it's only 20-40 pips more away but under huge support/resistance will probably. But then again it's a tradeoff of 40 extra pips in hopes of saving the full trade....back down to % and statistics there...

How about "if it ain't broke don't fix it"

Just feels more logic to use "good spots" instead of a rough daily range average to me...


Ok, that was today's lecture on stops

Bedtime!

Cya all and have a nice weekend!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,019
  • Feb 23, 2007 4:56pm Feb 23, 2007 4:56pm
I may be wrong, but as the price on the GBP is 1.9###, the ATR range you have is from 0.011# to 0.014#.

So 110-140 pips, you just have to add the final decimal.
  • #1,020
  • Feb 23, 2007 5:05pm Feb 23, 2007 5:05pm
Haha, great post!

I'm starting to come to the conclusion that my stop loss method is probably as good as any other - they all have their pros & cons.

Thanks for your additional insight - I also looked up this article http://www.investopedia.com/articles...pplacement.asp which talks about ATR stops as well as using a two day high/low and the possible pitfalls too.

I think I may just stick with the 10 pip rule - I may also try backtesting 10 pip + spread as that may save a potential winner in enough cases to outweigh the times when both would be hit anyway.

Have a great weekend yourself

Kind Regards
Steve


Quoting SeekingLight
Hey Steve,
I'm not Karmo but the way ATR usually works is that it shows the average range of a given set of days. If you set it to 1 it should show 1:1 the daily bars high to low, i.e. if the day was 110 pips from low to high, it would show 110. It may be showing the decimals a bit odd => 0.11 = 110 pips or something. If you use longer periods, you get a rougher average overall, if you use less, you get one more "specific to this recent period".

To be honest, "good" stop placement is an art, even strong s/r can sometimes be penetrated for 10-30 pips before you get a pin bar or similiar through it as price flops back. But by then the stop is already gone.
Still safer than thin air however. ATR vs 10 pips trailed will not make a gigantic difference imho, using big s/r including fibs and price pivots (James stuff) will most likely be more efficient....

I've not moved my stop until price moved out of a certain range for my Kiwi trade for example, had I trailed it it would have just up and died weeks ago. There's sometimes this initial "move out then move back to origin then takeoff" phase and trailing during that can be deadly. Ok, too much theory.

In short: I don't think ATR alone will make that huge a difference, using a good spot on the chart if it's only 20-40 pips more away but under huge support/resistance will probably. But then again it's a tradeoff of 40 extra pips in hopes of saving the full trade....back down to % and statistics there...

How about "if it ain't broke don't fix it"

Just feels more logic to use "good spots" instead of a rough daily range average to me...


Ok, that was today's lecture on stops

Bedtime!

Cya all and have a nice weekend!
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