Thanks monkey for starting this thread.
Been backtesting a few charts (daily and 4hr) manually and out of 226 trades there's a success rate of over 84%!!
Definitely something in these fib levels..
Been trading a few years now and have always known about fibs, expansions, fans,etc, but something as simple as fib levels seemed to elude me. Grateful to Mouteki for this revelation.
Anyone know of any other traders that have used the f. levels successfully?
B: to have stable levels and prevent form relocating fib levels after MT4 platform restart, after setting fib levels in the chart you must remove indicator from your chart .that to stay levels in your chart this key must be true.
C: to delet one of up or down trend fib levels after attaching both in the chart without removing other trend levels, attach indicator to chart, turned true that trend delet key and remove indicator from chart.
Retracement trading is safer than breakout trading .The main levels to watch are: 38.2%, 50%. 61.8% and 78.6%. (or 76.4%). The market will typically retrace after a strong move before continuing .The market won't always hit these levels exactly. For example, price may reverse mind way between 50% and 61.8% sometimes. Price can under shoot or over shoot a Fibonacci level.
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Joined Sep 2008
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Status: Forex Beauty
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Take Fibonacci retracements and projections from a number of different lows or highs to find a level where 2 or more retracements/projections are at the same level. This will give a level with a strong possibility of a turning point. Convergence is when the coincidence of 2 or more Fibonacci price relationships comes together with a relatively tight range.
I have been staying out of forex the past two weeks waiting for the markets to calm down a bit. Short term though the dollar looks strong fundamentally, so I'm interested in seeing some fib interpretations that coincide with dollar strength. Then I might get back into the game.
Also, a reader of the thread asked me to write a description of how this system works. I really don't have time to do this right now, and Mouteki never gave us that pdf file that was promised for weeks. So can someone step up and write a short primer on this in a post for those new to the method?
What mayorspread and angelatrix wrote are very useful tips for using this method by the way.
Thanks monkey for starting this thread.
Been backtesting a few charts (daily and 4hr) manually and out of 226 trades there's a success rate of over 84%!!
Definitely something in these fib levels..
Been trading a few years now and have always known about fibs, expansions, fans,etc, but something as simple as fib levels seemed to elude me. Grateful to Mouteki for this revelation.
Anyone know of any other traders that have used the f. levels successfully?
Ignored
That is great to know, thanks for the work, sounds like it took some time. And I assume that this is completely without any fundamental analysis involved?
Any chance someone can come up with a good EA to draw -everything- and give alerts? I know it is easy enough to do it manually, but an EA that you could run on 20 currency pairs with 2 minutes of work would be really useful and cool....
after all this movement this is the better i found.
Ignored
hi
I belief that this pair go south and the zone that shape shows, it's short time target. but price doesn't heat a retrace levels yet. what's your idea ?
I don't don't know if these zones,fe's,retracements pertains to gold or silver charts. I'm lookin at my gold chart on the fxxd platform and looks like it has bounced back up to the 38.2 retracement area and right below it is a an extension. Right now i'm going to plot my zones and see what it looks like.. This on the 4 hour chart. Take care,Tex
I don't don't know if these zones,fe's,retracements pertains to gold or silver charts. I'm lookin at my gold chart on the fxxd platform and looks like it has bounced back up to the 38.2 retracement area and right below it is a an extension. Right now i'm going to plot my zones and see what it looks like.. This on the 4 hour chart. Take care,Tex
Ignored
ok, this is gold that you see respect in fib zones,fib retracment and fib expantion. in last retracment i wait to see an AO divergence or reversal signal to go short.
This is a good method introduce by mouteki but eventually he charge from now on i dunno whether he will still reveal more stuff to us anot. Anyway im trying this system with the combination of one method which is introduce by dazfx and i found its quite good cause we can get a good entry point which is not so specific in mouteki method.
Im still hoping someone can post a pdf file about mouteki method cause eventually im still abit confuse of finding the exact entry point for just using mouteki method.
Hope u all find it relevant for me information of using dazfx method together with mouteki.
Thanks monkey for starting this thread.
Been backtesting a few charts (daily and 4hr) manually and out of 226 trades there's a success rate of over 84%!!
Definitely something in these fib levels..
Been trading a few years now and have always known about fibs, expansions, fans,etc, but something as simple as fib levels seemed to elude me. Grateful to Mouteki for this revelation.
Anyone know of any other traders that have used the f. levels successfully?
Ignored
That is incredible, and a lot of work on your part! I have backtested it a little bit but haven't put as much time into it as yourself.
What did you use for confirmation to enter a trade? Were you basing trades on simple candle patterns of rejection of the levels, or did you use something like the Awesome Oscillator?
Also, you say 84% wins, how does that relate to your r:r? With this method r:r is supposed to be very good.
Did you use a lot of discretion on your entries or was it fairly mechanical?
That is great to know, thanks for the work, sounds like it took some time. And I assume that this is completely without any fundamental analysis involved?
Any chance someone can come up with a good EA to draw -everything- and give alerts? I know it is easy enough to do it manually, but an EA that you could run on 20 currency pairs with 2 minutes of work would be really useful and cool....
Ignored
REMEMBER: These were purely for backtesting purposes and also to see the effectiveness of the fib levels as targets! Trigger requirements to go long (borrowed from the STUPID SIMPLE system on this forum):
1)LSMA turns green and is below 0
2)DiNapoli Stochs turn positive
3)Momentum above 0
4)MACD a-la Phillip Nel's 4hr strategy STOP LOSS = ATR (20) x 2 [which actually makes for bad R:R but anyway...] This is not ideal and can and should be adjusted/tightened. Target was the first Fib Level from the buy price and I didn't count the next one in, although on many occassions, the other higher fib levels were also reached, but I didn't count those profits in too. To include the other fib targets would require ahelluva lot more work!! I did not take into consideration the following:
Drawdown (unless it surpassed the stop level, in which case it was recorded as a loss).
Spread (I took the numbers straight off MT4 charts without adding in slippage, spreads,etc) Other things to consider:
1)Because the LSMA indicator "moves around" quite a bit I had to backtest bar by bar, so, in other words, I couldn't just look at a chart and see where the trade requirements were met as the LSMA could give a false impression.
2)I did not shoot up fibs or fib expansions for each 'trade'to check for strong resistance points on the chart.i only used fib levels.
3)The 0 fib level was drawn from the recent low when going long.
4)All trades were taken from 1st Jan 2008 as starting point.
I've attached a chart example as well as the spreadsheet backtest results.
182 successful trades out of a possible 215. I excluded the trades I backtested on two soft commodity charts as many folks here don't trade those two commodities.
I know this isn't a very 'scientific' or detailed backtest, but I hope this helps others because it certainly helped me realise that fib levels are excellent target points regardless of your 'trigger' or stop loss levels.
CC
PS: The +301 pips profit I showed on the EU chart was recorded as 300 pips profit on my bactest results.
Another trader mentioned using Jacko's Anti-Hedging strategy (elsewhere on this forum),. Although this is preferred to the SL I used for backtests because it keeps losses to a minimum, it is extremely difficult to test.
