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Wondering Why

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 3, 2008 7:52am Oct 3, 2008 7:52am
Hi everyone,

I'm just curious about something. I've been holding onto a USD/JPY trade for the past couple days hoping to get back into positive territory and luckily enough I did. I was also holding it because of the news coming out today. I had a very strong feeling it wouldn't be good. But when the Non-Farm, Unemployment, and Avg Hour wage, a big pull south was reversed. Two of the three announcements would be considered negative, Non-farm and Avg hour, and the unemployment was steady. I'm just wondering why these things didn't continue to pull the pair down further? I will continue to hold the trade for the rest of the day in hopes it will drop again, but if there's any information you can offer me as to why negative information created positive movement, that would be greatly appreciated.

FkF
  • #2
  • Oct 3, 2008 8:10am Oct 3, 2008 8:10am
Quoting fkforex
Hi everyone,

I'm just curious about something. I've been holding onto a USD/JPY trade for the past couple days hoping to get back into positive territory and luckily enough I did. I was also holding it because of the news coming out today. I had a very strong feeling it wouldn't be good. But when the Non-Farm, Unemployment, and Avg Hour wage, a big pull south was reversed. Two of the three announcements would be considered negative, Non-farm and Avg hour, and the unemployment was steady. I'm just wondering why these things didn't continue to pull the pair down further? I will continue to hold the trade for the rest of the day in hopes it will drop again, but if there's any information you can offer me as to why negative information created positive movement, that would be greatly appreciated.

FkF

based on what i can observe Yen is pulling away not because of a reaction to NFP. Dollar is actually going stronger elsewhere. Could be cause traders see a short term carry trade opportunity.
  • #3
  • Oct 3, 2008 8:13am Oct 3, 2008 8:13am
Can you explain what a carry trade is or is there a definition on FF somewhere? Again, the US can be doing well against other currencies, but the same question comes up. Why would it be strong if these announcements were negative?
Thanks for your reply :o)
  • #4
  • Oct 3, 2008 8:23am Oct 3, 2008 8:23am
Check this:

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=111160

http://www.forexfactory.com/news.php?do=news&id=110839

Answers are right here in FF
Johann Channels and cycles are everything
  • #5
  • Oct 3, 2008 10:35am Oct 3, 2008 10:35am
The problems I see are bolded

Quoting fkforex
Hi everyone,

I'm just curious about something. I've been holding onto a USD/JPY trade for the past couple days hoping to get back into positive territory and luckily enough I did. I was also holding it because of the news coming out today. I had a very strong feeling it wouldn't be good. But when the Non-Farm, Unemployment, and Avg Hour wage, a big pull south was reversed. Two of the three announcements would be considered negative, Non-farm and Avg hour, and the unemployment was steady. I'm just wondering why these things didn't continue to pull the pair down further? I will continue to hold the trade for the rest of the day in hopes it will drop again, but if there's any information you can offer me as to why negative information created positive movement, that would be greatly appreciated.

FkF
Hope.... Luck.... These things should never be included in any trade plan. If it doesn't go your way, get out, don't "hope" that it comes back.
  • #6
  • Oct 4, 2008 3:28pm Oct 4, 2008 3:28pm
Quoting fkforex
Can you explain what a carry trade is or is there a definition on FF somewhere? Again, the US can be doing well against other currencies, but the same question comes up. Why would it be strong if these announcements were negative?
Thanks for your reply :o)

i retrack my comment about carry trade - that may be in jepoardy for a while - we'll see.

you can google carry trade or search FF for more info. it's there


true - dollar strength is becaue world investors are shifting their cash into treasuries because they are backed by the US gov - after the last couple one wonder how long that will last.
  • #7
  • Last Post: Oct 7, 2008 8:19am Oct 7, 2008 8:19am
Logic rarely works in this market
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