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Fibonacci does work?

  • #1
  • First Post: Oct 3, 2008 3:43am Oct 3, 2008 3:43am
Maybe?

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Maarten
  • #2
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:04am Oct 3, 2008 4:04am
I have a challenge for ya. Post a chart every time fibs doesn't work. The best way for proving any "system" is to disprove it actually work. If you can't find any flaws with your system you have a good system. So when looking on any system, your first job is to find flaws with it and rather look where it fails instead of where it succeed. Fibs alone want give you any edge. Prove me wrong.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #3
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:12am Oct 3, 2008 4:12am
Quoting aediaz1
I have a challenge for ya. Post a chart every time fibs doesn't work. The best way for proving any "system" is to disprove it actually work. If you can't find any flaws with your system you have a good system. So when looking on any system, your first job is to find flaws with it and rather look where it fails instead of where it succeed. Fibs alone want give you any edge. Prove me wrong.
First, this is not my system. I was just looking at this chart and thought I would use some fibonacci expansions. Second, I don't believe that fibonacci really works because of its presence in nature. Well, it works sometimes, because alot of people people are buying and selling at the same time following the fib levels. But in my opion it has nothing to do with nature.

I am not trying to prove that fibonacci works or that it doesn't work. I am just interested in your opinions.

Thanks guys!

Maarten
  • #4
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:28am Oct 3, 2008 4:28am
Sorry, just 2 cents, If Fibo ain't works, then my profits all way long is illusion or dream? Or i am drunken?
  • #5
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:36am Oct 3, 2008 4:36am
And for how many weeks/months have you been profitable?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #6
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:41am Oct 3, 2008 4:41am
I'm not here to disprove/prove anything. I just want you guys to do some research yourself to find out what fibs is all about. And by research I don't mean looking back on your chart and plotting fibs where it seems logical. I've already done the research, and for my trading-style it doesn't provide me with anything.

But that doesn't necessary mean its totally useless for YOU. Just be sure you also have a look where it fails.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #7
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:52am Oct 3, 2008 4:52am
that chart has 14 ish horizontal lines on it. Price is bound to hit them some time.
And none of the red circles (elipses) coincide with the fibs anyway.
  • #8
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:53am Oct 3, 2008 4:53am
I have found that fibs, like any other popular method are a self-fulfilling prophecy. I look to them when analyzing charts as one indicator in a confluence of events.
  • #9
  • Oct 3, 2008 4:54am Oct 3, 2008 4:54am
Quoting aediaz1
I'm not here to disprove/prove anything. I just want you guys to do some research yourself to find out what fibs is all about. And by research I don't mean looking back on your chart and plotting fibs where it seems logical. I've already done the research, and for my trading-style it doesn't provide me with anything.

But that doesn't necessary mean its totally useless for YOU. Just be sure you also have a look where it fails.
Thanks for your opinion. Although we probably agree on most things, I am wondering why would fibs not be a good tool for example on a trading strategy like Jaco style? Fibs could be a great benefit to price action trading right?

Anyway thanks for your reply, I would love to here what your trading strategy is.

Maarten
  • #10
  • Oct 3, 2008 5:24am Oct 3, 2008 5:24am
Quoting Ted1983
that chart has 14 ish horizontal lines on it. Price is bound to hit them some time.
And none of the red circles (elipses) coincide with the fibs anyway.
That's a valid point I forgot to mention. Apply enough [anything] on your chart and sooner or later you need a miracle not to get any of your [anything] "respected".

Quoting Maarten999
Thanks for your opinion. Although we probably agree on most things, I am wondering why would fibs not be a good tool for example on a trading strategy like Jaco style? Fibs could be a great benefit to price action trading right?

Anyway thanks for your reply, I would love to here what your trading strategy is.

Maarten
Fibs could work when you have confluence between other tools. I think this have been proven over in the James16 thread where confluence between MA's, fibs and PA have proven to be successful.

This could be a lesson;

In TA, no single indicator/tool will provide you with an profitable edge in the long run.

Only when you enhance your knowledge about a selected number of tools working together, you'll probably have an profitable edge, IMO.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #11
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:28am Oct 3, 2008 6:28am
Quote
I'm not here to disprove/prove anything. I just want you guys to do some research yourself to find out what fibs is all about. And by research I don't mean looking back on your chart and plotting fibs where it seems logical. I've already done the research, and for my trading-style it doesn't provide me with anything.

But that doesn't necessary mean its totally useless for YOU. Just be sure you also have a look where it fails.

With due respect, Fibo works! I use fibo very well and i have been profitable with it. and honestly, u can go to bobokus thread and see how amazing trading only fib works effectively.

am a trend trader, i trade along the trend after pull back to a fib level and it has been awesome.

Fib works perfectly!
  • #12
  • Edited 6:36am Oct 3, 2008 6:32am | Edited 6:36am
Quote
I have a challenge for ya. Post a chart every time fibs doesn't work. The best way for proving any "system" is to disprove it actually work. If you can't find any flaws with your system you have a good system. So when looking on any system, your first job is to find flaws with it and rather look where it fails instead of where it succeed. Fibs alone want give you any edge. Prove me wrong.
Boboku's have proved u wrong.

Go to his thread and see urself
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...58#post2257958
  • #13
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:51am Oct 3, 2008 6:51am
Quoting Naijafx
With due respect, Fibo works! I use fibo very well and i have been profitable with it. and honestly, u can go to bobokus thread and see how amazing trading only fib works effectively.

am a trend trader, i trade along the trend after pull back to a fib level and it has been awesome.

Fib works perfectly!
I'm glad to hear it works well for you, although I've never said it didn't work. I simply don't think it's possible to beat the market with just one way too simple tool. If someone does, it would be a sensation and I would be glad for them too.

If he trade fibs only (successfully) in the long run (I've seen some strange things in my life so I rarely exclude any option, I just stay skeptic if things seems out of logic) he must be the first/only known person trading the FX market with one, single (simply) tool ?

I also don't understand why people bother with 3-10 years of TA research to get any edge if trading can be that easy.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #14
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:57am Oct 3, 2008 6:57am
I have found that fibs only work when they are also close to pivot, support or resistance lines. When they are not they are useless. So just use support or resistance lines, that is what most big traders use anyways.
  • #15
  • Oct 3, 2008 6:59am Oct 3, 2008 6:59am
Quoting aediaz1
I'm glad to hear it works well for you, although I've never said it didn't work. I simply don't think it's possible to beat the market with just one way too simple tool. If someone does, it would be a sensation and I would be glad for them too.

If he trade fibs only (successfully) in the long run (I've seen some strange things in my life so I rarely exclude any option, I just stay skeptic if things seems out of logic) he must be the first/only known person trading the FX market with one, single (simply) tool ?

I also don't understand why people bother with 3-10 years of TA research to get any edge if trading can be that easy.
Your skepticism is admirable and rational. However, before commenting on his use of Fibs, why not check out the thread yourself. You'll see that there is more going on than "one, single (simply) tool".
  • #16
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:11am Oct 3, 2008 7:11am
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fibonacci_number

Fibonacci or golden ratio relationships exist in market prices because the market is large enough and decentralised enough to be a natural growth system.
Saying "Fibonacci does work" is like saying plants grow.
  • #17
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:16am Oct 3, 2008 7:16am
I have been using Fibs in combination with other indicators eg. RSI, MA, MACD, etc. with great success. Fibs is one of the few leading indicators whereas the majority of other indicators are lagging and this helps in establishing possible entries or profit objectives. Obviously no single indicator is the "holy grail" and common sense sometimes have to prevail in deploying any indicator. Therefor I support Fibs being part of my trading weaponary and in conjunction with a MACD crossover they are great in entering a trade and knowing upfront what the risk/reward ratio of the trade could be.

If you want to learn from a great mentor follow one of the following links:
http://www.fibmaster.com/index.html (free video lessons) or http://www.dailyforexcharts.com/ (free video lessons)
  • #18
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:17am Oct 3, 2008 7:17am
Quoting aediaz1
I have a challenge for ya. Post a chart every time fibs doesn't work. The best way for proving any "system" is to disprove it actually work. If you can't find any flaws with your system you have a good system. So when looking on any system, your first job is to find flaws with it and rather look where it fails instead of where it succeed. Fibs alone want give you any edge. Prove me wrong.
You will allways find flaws in a system. The point is to get a system that overall wins more than it loses.
  • #19
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:19am Oct 3, 2008 7:19am
Quoting katarche
Your skepticism is admirable and rational. However, before commenting on his use of Fibs, why not check out the thread yourself. You'll see that there is more going on than "one, single (simply) tool".
It doesn't really matter, for me nor you. I've spent my time on fibs and have simply found other tools that works well for me.

If someone trade successfully from fibs only, I'll the first person in-line to shake he's hand and say well done.

The second reason I'm chronically sceptic to fibs, is because newbs adore it like a magical tool from God himself. And I don't believe in God
Measure twice, cut once
  • #20
  • Oct 3, 2008 7:21am Oct 3, 2008 7:21am
Quoting melpheos
You will allways find flaws in a system. The point is to get a system that overall wins more than it loses.
Exactly. When you find lesser and lesser flaws in your system when your looking for failure (not success) you might be on to something.
Measure twice, cut once
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